Sun 9/02 - Olympic men's Downhill

Alpine skiing officially debuts at the Olympics.

Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):

Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.

Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.

Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.  

Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.

From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.

Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.

I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.

Place and final position in this season downhills

Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better

Svindal is just impressive

Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel

Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.

DNF in Beaver Creek

Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)

Sat 25/01 - Kitzbuehel and Cortina(2) Downhills

Another good day yesterday, winning all the head to heads. Actually, I haven't seen what happened in slalom's run2 - I know it was strange, although not as strange as run1 setted by Papa Kostelic.
Feeling is that Hargin's peak form is either gone, or rather faded, or it's still there (he's stil a top performer) but he's bearing in his mind what happened in Adelboden when he couldn't hold the lead and dropped to 4th in the second run.

On to today's DHs - the biggest events of the tours.

I think anything could happen in Kitz. But for the most part Bode looks like the one who should win (my humble opininion: Bode came back more for winning Kitz than for the Olympics). Svindal maybe his the best physical power and endurance -key elements on this long course. Reichelt's form has raised recently and so Kueng's. Last year winner, Paris, had problems getting back in shape after his crash in december, hardly he'll defend his title.

On ladies side Hoefl-Riesch is the one to beat, her form is terrific at the moment and she's in full run for the Cup.
Behind her the same lot: Fenninger, Weirather and Goergl.
I had good impressions from Mancuso yesterday, and I'm backing her today, she's getting closer and closer to the top, and so is the whole US team: almost every one scored a season best yesterday.
So I'm picking Leanne Smith over Marchand-Arvier: the frenchwoman lost the whole pre-season and came back to race only few weekends ago, all the missing time is sensible seeing her racing.
Also backing Merighetti, on her favourite course; I know Schmidhofer (bib #39) was 3rd yesterday but I think condition changed a bit for late starters: young US Jakie Wiles (bib #41) was 15th (first WC points for her) and Hungarian Miklos (bib #45) was 18th tied with Slovenian Ferk (bib #38)  

Results of Sat 7/12 and American swing recap

Got a day short in posting and betting.
So this post will be a bit obsolete, but anyway...

Opposing the US didn't work, they actually showed signs of improvements in saturday's downhill and peaked yeasterday with Vonn finishing 5th in super-g.
The most disappointing thing of the weekend was skipping all the bets on Weirather after friday's lost ones. For the second DH there were the same odds in Weirather - Fenninger h2h market, and likely there were also for the SG.
Men's double was lost by just .02s thanks to a big run of Jansrud.

Weekend turn from profit to a 1.2 units lost and a ROI of -2.85%

----------------------------------------------------

Season finally getting on the heart: there will be races every weekend, but above all the fight for the standings is flareing up as contenders becoming more defined.

Ladies. Gut held on her WC lead on a course not suitable for her, runnind defensively in the two DHs and hit ting as soon as she could winning the SG.
Maria Riesch rose to the 2nd position, she easily dominated the DHs, but a big mistake in the SG prevented her from another solid placement. Being a top competitor also in slalom potentially she's winning big points in every event (super-combis and city-events included), she's now favourite to win the Crystal Globe.
Tied in third place Weirather and Fenninger are solid competitors, they are skiing at Gut's level and it's just a matter of time before they step on the top of the podium.
I'll limited the field of competitors to them. Maze and Shiffrin are more than 100 points behind Weirather/Fenninger, I'm about to rule them out with different reasons: Maze, as I said before, centered her summer preparation on the Olympics so she'll probably float mid-standing for another while, if form will eventually come she could have a Kostelic-like month although the lot of competitors has grown tougher in every discipline -hard task. Shiffrin runs for the win in slalom and giant-slalom, but though her regularity of results it's only two disciplines against Gut/Weirather/Fenninger's three and Riesch's four.

On men's side it's Svindal vs Hirsher again but with another character coming on the scene. Ted Ligety somehow increased the gap dividing him from the chasers in giant-slalom, and with solid super-gs and slaloms he could become an unexpected guest in the Cup fight.

Other interesting features: Bode and Vonn coming back, Janka and Jansrud as well.
Super-G surprise by Kueng (first Swiss win in centuries) and Otmar Striedinger
Italian speed team great form and GS team disaster, while France GS and speed are to be put back into perspective.

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 2 mens

In men's tour music didn't change from last year: Ligety still winning with margin on chasers in GS, same for Hirscher in SL, Svindal won in SG, and Paris the DH.

Overall

The fight for the Globe once again looks limited to Svindall, king of the fast disciplines, and Hirscher, king of the tech, with the austrian again andvantaged by the number of events (9 slaloms and downhills, 8 giant-slaloms, and only 6 super-gs, + 2 super-combi and a city-event).

Ligety should find more solidy in either slalom or super-g, or maybe he just should use better super-combies as he's one of the most completes and yet he scored 0 points in kombies lat year.

Pinturault potentially has the podium in his legs in slalom, but he lacks of consistency. Frequency of results there could turn him into a new Hirscher.

Kostelic looks far behind these. He is still fighting for top position in slalom, but the field there is wide and the points he is going to lose are more of those he is going to win there. Super-G and downhill hardly are taking him big points, above all compared to the risks he is taking competiting in those after all his knee surgery he underwent.

Comebacks: Miller, Lizeroux, Feuz 

Some big names came back this year. Honestly I can't see they win or find placements at the very top of the standing (at least not in the short period) but anyway for me it was a great pleasure to have them back as they all at some point in the past have represented the best of their specific discipline, or of skis in general - guess who am I talking about?.

Age isn't on Miller and Lizeroux's side while Feuz once he'll have scratch off the rust should become relevant again.

Up-and-comers 

Vinking Henrik Kristoffersen, 19 yo,  surely deserve the first mention. He was the surprise of Levi reaching his first WC podium behind Hirsher and Matt. Away from the major tour, he's backing that astonishing results with other good placements in European Cup and leading the overall standing.

Compatriot Sebastian-Foss Solevaag, older than Kristoffersen but with less WC starts, was another surprising youngster. 9th place in Levi where he was bib #55, and doing good in EC as well: 3rd and 2nd place in two slaloms.

Harder to find top-performing youngster in the fast disciplines, where maturity seems to arrive later.

Austrian Matthias Mayer grabbed 2nd place in SG and 13th in DH in Lake Louise, though he already is full-time part of the OSV from few season.

Freasher names are France's Brice Roger and Austria's Otmar Striedinger who got two top 20 placements in Lake Louise.