Showing posts with label Haase. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Haase. Show all posts

Friday, April 12, 2013

Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.
It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.
Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.
There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.
The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.
Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.
Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.
Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.
At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 
In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.
But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.
And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 
Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.
I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.
Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.
Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.


Monday, August 27, 2012

USO R1 - Day 1

M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan

D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)

R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.

I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)

0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day

Monday, July 16, 2012

ATP/WTA 1st round - 16/07

 Hamburg ATP 500

M Bachinger - R Haase: pick Bachinger @2.13 2 units
Totally disagree with this odds. Apart from Bundensliga and Boodles challenger (nothing more than friendly) Haase hasn't won a set in last 6 matches. Bachinger, on the other hand, is having a great season so far on clay reaching also QF last week in Umag.

I thought in something more but most of the matches are tomorrow

-2