Sat 15/02 - Ladies Olympic Super-G

I tried to figure out something about ladies Super-G but I came out with nothing.

As seen so far all the events of alpine skiing have been quite crazy, with all the favourites (but Hoefl-Riesch in ladies combined) flopping big and outsiders popping up everywhere.

That's all about this kind of events, where all that matter is being in one of the top three placements, so everyone push to 100% and the space between a big performance and a failure is very narrow, and failure in alpine skiing is also a line just 1 meter wider that results in few cents of second loss. 

Only safe statement about what has happened so far is: "team Switzerland is in excellent form".

And Swiss have few good arrows to shoot in ladies SG: Gut, Gisin and Suter.

Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Fenninger, Mancuso, Hosp among the others, while Goergl seems to be not liking this snow- she's always dangerous though-, Weirather is in the starting list but her forms should be vary bad after an injury in training that had her missing the downhill, same for Gagnon and Rebensburg -always struggling with health issues.

Opposing these last names is all I advice. With spring-time temperature an early starter winner is much possible, I'm not doing any specific name though as it didn't pay so far (I haven't posted the outcome of ladies DH, a bit late eh?):

Mon 10/02 - Ladies Super-Combined

No time for divagations, just the picks

Sat 18/01 - Cortina and Wengen Downhills

Very heavy saturday as both gender are racing on the best (imho) downhill courses of their calendar.

Open brawl in women's one, where I honestly don't know what could happen. Maze likes this slope, but Maria Riesch looks like the one to beat. Fenninger, Weirather and Kaufmann-Abderalden, though, have been the most solid so far, while Gut's shape has little faded and Goergl's one has raised.
To all this there's to add the cancelled training, and due to fog start has already been lowered.

In men's DH I think there might be surprises -read Svindal could not win this. The vinking in fact doesn't like this course and has never won here (he also crashed dramatically last year).
I couldn't say who could replace Svindal on the top step of the podium though; my names are: Innerhofer, who usually does well here, and so do Reichelt; same for Kroell but his form doesn't look the best; my dark horse would be Beat Feuz: the Swiss has won here in 2012 and his season has been decent considering he's skipped last season

Today's pick, and yesterday's outcome.

EDIT: Cortina has been cancelled, pick refounded

Sat 21/12 - Val d'Isere and Val Gardena - dowhills

Both ladies and men are up to downhills today. Sun is shining on both venues, that marks a big differences compared to mid-week trainings that were done either on snow or fog, included yesterday's men's super-g which had good 30 seconds of the course wrapped in a thick fog.

I don't remember Val d'Isere course, also because in the past the slope changed for the World Championships but I can't say in what year changed as well.
Val Gardena's Saslong, on the other hand has always been the same, the course it's "easy" but its easiness makes it hard to recover from mistakes, even little ones. Characteristics of this slope are the humps and jumps and its bulging ground.
Italians, although "at home", don't like this slope and use to perform badly, opposing them would be a goog move.
Canadians and Vikings -they also share radio reports- have a good tradition here. Last year US Steve Nyman won with an high number as he started with improved weather conditions and visibility.

Anyway I couldn't find any bettable selection for in men's DH, all pick are from ladies' one:

Elena Fanchini is among the most consistent downhillers (with Weirather and Fenninger) so far, showing great performances on all kind of conditions. Gut and Riesch have their favourite kinds of slope, technical and tough the first flat and easy the latter; Vonn seems back but I keep doubt on her shape; same for Maze whose shape still not the best.  

Surprised to see Fanchini underdog vs Maze, and that price for the podium with so many doubts around those "above" her.

Picked Aufdenblatten on Suter as I rate Suter more like a Super-G-er than a downhiller, opposite consideration for Aufdenblatten. Low expectation on this anyway since both aren't consistent and could be either black or white.

St. Moritz and Val d'Isere - the results

This weeked has been a disaster, and feelings are even more mixed because picks weren't actually so wrong and everything could have turned the other way in a blink.

Conceptually-lost bets were the two on Fenninger, and Pranger to podium.
All the others were good.
Deville was (and I think will be in the future) shite finishing 26th, I don't know what happened to Pranger as I haven't seen run1 (ladies' one too) but he should be better than that.
Anyway Val d'Isere is madness: lots of racers ousted, Hirscher made a mistake too and couldn't qualify...
Can't find a common thread for this slalom, sure thing is that you can't "attack" on this hill, but just be calm and clean, experience I think helped as the runner-up Hargin ,28 yo, is the youngest in the top10, and he stepped on podium with Matt and Thaler, 34 and 35 respectively.

Biggest disappointment was Gagnon. 5th after the first leg, in the second was doing equally good, but when 5-6 gates away from the finish line, she fell down wasting a good chance to step on podium. Anyway she's getting closer to it, at this kind of odds might worth keep backing her.
Also Brignone crashed, in the first leg though. Anyway she was about half a second in front of Riesch. Riesch was eventually 11th, and it sorts of confirms that GS is her worst discipline, with possibilities of opposing her as bookies could overrate her at it.
Tessa Worley wins big scoring the best times in both runs.
Lindell-Vikarby is on her level and increases her lead in GS-standing.
Maze found back a good way to ski, her movements didn't look slow as in previous races.

Sun 15/12 - St.Moritz GS Ladies, Val d'Isere SL Men

 Picks decided in today's races:

I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.

Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.

On to next races:

Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.

I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).

Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.

Val d'Isere and St. Moritz

World Cup back in Europe
Ladies in St.Moritz: saturday a Super-G, sunday a giant-slalom
Men in Val d'Isere: giant-slalom on saturday, slalom on sunday

Footnote of a post from last year:
"In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well steep... strange comebacks in run2"

Val d'Isere last year was thrilling. 
Local hero Pinturalt scored his first WC win in the night slalom, it was special because he won a slalom before winning in giant-slalom, his favourite discipline.
In giant-slalom Hirsher won in front of Luitz and Ligety. Scandal was Ligety not winning, the features of this slope and the course setting made everybody think they've finally found a way to stop him - he won the next GS, in Alta Badia, with one of the most terrific performances I've ever seen (you'll easily find the video on youporn or nearby, for a skiing fan there it belongs).  
Luitz was at his first WC podium - a year later the best he's placed is 9th two weeks ago in Beaver's GS - he was bib #35 (his compatriot Neureuther was bib #36 and finished 4th). Luitz was placed 25th after the first run, scored the best time in run2 to recover up to the 2nd position, Nani made another interesting recovery from 29th to 10th place.
St.Moritz lost the super-combined.
Last year Vonn won the super-G ahead of Maze, who won the giant-slalom and the combi. 
Vonn is not racing this year, Maze isn't the absolute dominator she used to be.
St. Moritz isn't particularly fashinating, it's average on many levels: lots of turns and "S", but not technical or challenging, fast but not even close to Lake Louise, some jumps but it's not Cortina. It's like a bigger version of a giant-slalom. Being the actual leader of giant-slalom the same of super-g I'm expecting the same names at the top: Gut, Riesch, Weirather, Fenninger

Picked some bets earlier, prices tempted me.

First three picks refers to saturday's SG.
It's Weirather - Fenninger again and I still see Weirather ahead.
I see value in both Suter and Riesch prices. Riesch on this course could be closer to Gut, while I had priced Suter favourite against Goergl.

Lindell-Vikarby vs Fenninger is from the giant-slalom market and I think this price is ridiculus and won't last long - Pinnacle makes Fenninger 1.7 to Vikarby 2.1.

Results of Sat 7/12 and American swing recap

Got a day short in posting and betting.
So this post will be a bit obsolete, but anyway...

Opposing the US didn't work, they actually showed signs of improvements in saturday's downhill and peaked yeasterday with Vonn finishing 5th in super-g.
The most disappointing thing of the weekend was skipping all the bets on Weirather after friday's lost ones. For the second DH there were the same odds in Weirather - Fenninger h2h market, and likely there were also for the SG.
Men's double was lost by just .02s thanks to a big run of Jansrud.

Weekend turn from profit to a 1.2 units lost and a ROI of -2.85%

----------------------------------------------------

Season finally getting on the heart: there will be races every weekend, but above all the fight for the standings is flareing up as contenders becoming more defined.

Ladies. Gut held on her WC lead on a course not suitable for her, runnind defensively in the two DHs and hit ting as soon as she could winning the SG.
Maria Riesch rose to the 2nd position, she easily dominated the DHs, but a big mistake in the SG prevented her from another solid placement. Being a top competitor also in slalom potentially she's winning big points in every event (super-combis and city-events included), she's now favourite to win the Crystal Globe.
Tied in third place Weirather and Fenninger are solid competitors, they are skiing at Gut's level and it's just a matter of time before they step on the top of the podium.
I'll limited the field of competitors to them. Maze and Shiffrin are more than 100 points behind Weirather/Fenninger, I'm about to rule them out with different reasons: Maze, as I said before, centered her summer preparation on the Olympics so she'll probably float mid-standing for another while, if form will eventually come she could have a Kostelic-like month although the lot of competitors has grown tougher in every discipline -hard task. Shiffrin runs for the win in slalom and giant-slalom, but though her regularity of results it's only two disciplines against Gut/Weirather/Fenninger's three and Riesch's four.

On men's side it's Svindal vs Hirsher again but with another character coming on the scene. Ted Ligety somehow increased the gap dividing him from the chasers in giant-slalom, and with solid super-gs and slaloms he could become an unexpected guest in the Cup fight.

Other interesting features: Bode and Vonn coming back, Janka and Jansrud as well.
Super-G surprise by Kueng (first Swiss win in centuries) and Otmar Striedinger
Italian speed team great form and GS team disaster, while France GS and speed are to be put back into perspective.

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

-------------------------------------------------

Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Fri - 06/12 - Betting Beaver Creek and Lake Louise DHs

I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.

Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.



I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.

I went crazy with the ladies.

I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.

From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.

Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.

On to the head to heads.

Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.

Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.

Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team)  is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.

Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.

The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.

Alpine skiing - get ready for the White Circus

It may look like I've abandoned the blog, and in fact I have... but the White Circus silently goes on, mostly Down-under, and our heroes are getting ready to entertain us on the bigger stages, lets see how.

Ivica Kostelic at the trapeze

Maroney may be not impressed by Kostelic's gymnastic skills but she'll be impressed at his collection of knee surgery that has now reached and gone beyond the double figure. In Italy there's the saying "hundred of these days" to wish something to be long lasting, I'm not sure this is the right occasion to say it.

Anna Fenninger the Quick-change artist

Sadly she forgot how to put on her boots and needed help

The aMAZEing Tina the illusionist

Last season she flew on her skiis, for the next season she'll push it a step further.

The Italian team in the cage with lions and tigers

Well, not really a scary wild beast... it was Alonso, a fox.

Little Miss Sunshine (aka Mikaela Shiffrin) applied as comician

13 March - Downhill(s) - Lenzerheide

The strange results that come out at the end of the season plus today's thick fog not encouraging picks, although there are some tempting odds on head to head.

The slope is almost the same for both gender, only few gates are different.
It's a very technical slope with many turns and close to none slippery section.
Here's a video of the race back in 2011

Back in that day men's podium was: Theaux, Puchner, Svindal.
Ladies' podium was: Mancuso, Gut, Goergl.

As I said yesterday I think the odds on the two favorites, Maze and Svindal, are too low for what they've done in this discipline so far this season.
Here's my winners:

Ladies
Gut to win 1 unit @7
She'll have the biggest suppurt being the star of the swiss team.
2nd place in 2011, but I won't say she's grown since then, still she should be the one that knows better this slope and being so hard it also suit to her aggressive style.

Fenninger to win 1 unit @6
She's in great shape winning last two races, a giant-slalom and a super-g, that prove her technical skills.
She's also the one that better performs in tough condition and with bad visibility.

Men
Paris to win 1 unit @10
Well, Actually I don't know why I've picked him... sensation.
There's the say that many turns aren't for him, but I don't think so, he's Kitz champ and silver medal at the world championships where he made an acrobatic change of direction while flying. He's powerful and mad enough to win everywhere.

Kroell to win 1 unit @9
He must be one of the most disappointed of this season being with no wins.
Still he is 2nd in downhill standing, thank to his constancy of results, and leads a special standing made by ski-database.com, based on total time:

CORRECTED RANKING
NQ, DNF, DSQ, DNS, POS>30 receive time of last pointed plus 0.01

Races completed: 8		Total Race Lenght: 24.441m
POS	RACER	TOTAL	DIFF
1	Klaus Kroell AUT	14'36.53	0.00
2	Aksel-Lund Svindal NOR	14'37.85	-1.32
3	Dominik Paris ITA	14'37.89	-1.36
4	Christof Innerhofer ITA	14'39.21	-2.68
5	Hannes Reichelt AUT	14'40.31	-3.78
6	Adrien Theaux FRA	14'40.50	-3.97
7	Erik Guay CAN	14'40.97	-4.44
8	Werner Heel ITA	14'41.84	-5.31
9	David Poisson FRA	14'42.95	-6.42
10	Romed Baumann AUT	14'43.29	-6.76
11	Georg Streitberger AUT	14'43.91	-7.38
12	Travis Ganong USA	14'44.11	-7.58
13	Manuel Osborne-Paradis CAN	14'44.23	-7.70
14	Jan Hudec CAN	14'44.40	-7.87
15	Joachim Puchner AUT	14'44.44	-7.91
16	Patrick Kueng SUI	14'45.00	-8.47
17	Peter Fill ITA	14'45.10	-8.57
18	Benjamin Thomsen CAN	14'45.14	-8.61
19	Didier Defago SUI	14'45.70	-9.17
20	Andrej Sporn SLO	14'45.85	-9.32

Being the disadvantage being wide enough (58 points) he is much in nothing-to-lose situation.
He is an excellent turn maker.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The thick fog won.














Both races were cancelled.
So... Vonn won DH globe by 1 point.
Svindal won DH globe, but Hirscher is closer to the Overall.
Hoefl-Riesch won fair play title.


Riesch won the 2011 Overall on Vonn by just 3 points because of the cancelled Super-G and Giant-Slalom at the finals (also in Lenzerheide).

All bets are refounded

Ladies' Giant-Slalom - Ofterschwang

Bad conditions for warm temperature and salts used to keep the slope in good shape.
Low numbers should be advantaged, for the course should be early marked and become more and more difficult as race goes on.

h2h Curtoni - Gisin - pick Gisin 2 units @2.32 Lost -2
Both not in great shape, although everything seems to point in Gisin's direction.
Gisin has a broken hand since a crash at the World championships, her starting number though is good enough, no.9.
Curtoni hasn't trained since the world championships for back problems, she's got a bad bib, 16, if course early goes bad she should find it in very bad conditions.

Winner: Fenninger 1 unit @5.50 Won +4.5
Fenninger is very technical and she's also light and should do good enough on this snow.
Other top competitors like Maze, Riesch, Rebensbur are much heavier than Fenninger.

+2.5
Incredibly good from Curtoni, and incredibly bad from Gisin.
Fenninger confirmed her appreciation for strange weather condition winning with two great runs

Ladies' Super-G 1 - Garmisch-Partenkirchen

Long weekend of speed events starting with a Super-G, replacing the one cancelled of Val d'Isere.
The two Super-Gs are different: sunday's one is the classical Super-G entirely along ladies' slope, "Kandahar 1"; this one has a little variation starting from ladies' start going a little on men's slope and then going back to ladies' slope just before the section called "Hoelle" (hell).

These little variations, never practiced before, could cause some troubles for early starters.

Maze, already Overall winner, is aiming the cup of Super-G, she has a good margin to defend from Julia Mancuso.
Fenninger is back from an injury but from downhill's training seems she's feeling well.
Other hot names are the germans Hoefl-Riesch, who's from Garmisch, and Rebensburg, winner of last World Cup Super-G.

h2h Ross - E.Curtoni - pick Curtoni 3 units @2.15 Lost -3
Mainly against Ross, bib #2, while Curtoni is #14.
Curtoni seems to have a great feeling with this place, and her results are constant enough.
Ross has highs and lows.

h2h Weirather - Sejersted - pick Sejersted 1 unit @2.25 Lost -1
Little shoot against Weirather who hasn't entirely recovered from an injury in late december and her results have been pretty disappointing since then.
Sejersted still struggling to find some top spot, but she's little leveled up since the Championships.
Weirather #3, Sejersted #6.

h2h Gut - Fenninger - pick Fenninger 3 units @1.76 Won +2.28
Close match-up, but overall results are in favour of Fenninger that is more constant while Gut can have very high highs and very low lows.

-1.72

Not a great race on a course not so difficult, and with snow early worn.
After very few numbers "2nd tier" athletes really struggled to make a good time even though the perfarmance was mistake-less.
Weirather bib #3, Hosp bib #1 and Ruiz Castillo bib #4 were leading in this order up to the top seeded starters.
Weirather's lead held, and the girl from Liechtenstein maged her first career win, ahead of Maze and Mancuso, tied at+.12 from the leader. Mancuso keeps her chance to rip the Super-G Cup off Maze.

Schaldming 2013 - Super-G Ladies

Super-G slope, technical data

Although all those numbers, the slope of the women Super-G is not so hard.
There's been only one race on this slope, last year.
Anyway conditions will be different, considering last year the race was in march and the snow was "rotten", wet, for the warm temperatures.
This time there will be a more hard snow, but, BUT it'll be beneath a coat of soft powder.
So other than last year, this time low starting bib will be disadvantaged in favour of later starter.
All this if low clouds and fog don't mess it up even more.

As I said in previous post Vonn is bookies favourite, but her price to me worth a lay.
She's not convincing me among Super-Gs's turns and there are some strong competitor.
Fenninger is an aggressive racer and she's also racing "at home", in Austria.
Mancuso is one of my favourite in this kind of events because she can often give a little more, she levels up her performances.
Winner: Mancuso 1 unit @12 Lost -1
Winner: Fenninger 1 unit @9 Lost -1

h2h Schmidhofer - Aufdenblatten - pick Aufdenblatten 6 units @2.02 Lost -6

Die Piste in Schladming ist in einem guten Zustand – Schlechte Nachrichten aus dem ÖSV Lager – Nicole „Nici“ Schmidhofer die das Rennen mit Startnummer 1 eröffnet ist über Nacht krank geworden. ÖSV Damencheftrainer Herbert Mandl: Nici hat eine Bauchgrippe erwischt. Sie hat die ganze Nacht gebrochen und kaum ein Auge zugetan. Sie wird wohl nicht so bei Kräften sein wie wir es uns erhofft haben.” Bei der Besichtigung, die zur Stunde stattfindet ist Schmidhofer aber dabei.

The quote says that Schimdhofer doesn't feel well, she's been ill this night.
More reasons are given from her low starting bib, #1, so witouth knowing the course and probably with powder still on it.
Her only relevant previous result, 2nd place in Cortina, was made in a strange race due to weather conditions.
Aufdenblatten has a good starting bib , #15, and she's experienced and she can easily finish in top 15.

h2h LindellVikarby - Fanchini - pick Fanchini 2 units @2.75 Void 0
Little controversy in this one as the bookie says Elena Fanchini, who's not racing, there's her sister Nadia instead.
Let's see because as the previous pick Lindell-Vikarby has a low starting bib, #2, while the racing Fanchini is #31.

h2h Fenninger - Rebensburg - pick Fenninger 3 units @1.90 Lost -3
Rebensburg victory on this slope, last year, was made in strange conditions.
I actually think the gap between these two is a bit wider in favour of Fenninger.

Very bad day for me, and for the race.
The continuos start delays and so different conditions, the fact that the race started hours after the patrol and study of the course... all this and other reasons makes pre-race analysis pointless.
Anyway Mancuso did something great, she confirmed her beast mode in these events.
Fenninger made a stupid mistake, this watching from TV, missing a gate; actually many other racers missed that gate.
Fenninger was also a bit nervy, and so was Hoefl-Riesch, taking start just after Vonn's terrible crush.

Maze is just the best, this season she's going to win anything, great attitude.
Gut... I've always doubts about her, today she was great maybe I should consider her like Mancuso.
Goggia, 4th place, is a great talent on which keep an eye.
 

Ladies Giant-Slalom - St.Moritz

h2h Fenninger - Zettel - pick Fenninger 1 unit @2.10 Lost -1
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.

h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.

h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.

-1.9

Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.

In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2