ATP Valencia picks

I'm very happy that the lay on Tsonga has already landed, although now I've got to find someone else to back or to lay.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.

Today's picks.

Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).

While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.

Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33

Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.

Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.

Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.

Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.

Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.

Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.

USO R1 - Day 2

T Bellucci - P Andujar: pick Andujar @3.50 1 unit
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.

D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.

T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.

B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.

M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).

Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.

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