Perhaps my best day ever of trading yesterday, if not for the gain at least because I liked what I was doing and I had a neat feeling of what was happening in those matches.
Started the day with Kukushkin - Hajek.
Kukushkin had a break point (that remained the only one in the match for Kukushkin) early in the first set, Hajek saved it but odds flipped over and Hajek went at 2.1.
But then Hajek took the lead and was in commanding position in every rally: his price and what was going on didn't match. I backed him.
Hajek won the first set and the second, at this point I removed the liabilities, just in case...
Anything happened and Hajek scored the first point for the Czechs.
I'm happy that I let it run, it's kind of a first for me, usually I green up and go off, this time I stayed there and decided that Hajek wasn't about to choke.
Golubev - Rosol was different.
Rosol is still bearing the title of Nadal-killer although he hasn't done anything so good since then, he opened at 1.6.
Golubev, though, was unbeaten in Davis Cup when playing in Astana.
Golubev's first set was impressive, he was playing terrifically, but great help came from Rosol poor receive (4/24 receiving points won) and unforced errors: many aggressive forehands went long.
Backed Golubev and closed the trade as he won the set.
Second set showed that Golubev made a great effort to win the first set, and he wasn't able to keep it up anymore, this united to the fact that Rosol went up to 3 made me back Rosol.
The set stayed on serve until Golubev went to serve down 5-4, and his tension was palpable. He was broken and Rosol tied it 1-set-all.
Into third set Golubev gave no sign of a recovery, and I let my trade run.
Rosol won the set and went down to 1.1.
Here was my only fault of the day as I sensed the match wasn't done.
I could have greened up, but instead I only took off the liabilities.
Golubev had a pride impulse, and although his game was not as bright as in the first set he fought more and also got a break of advantage.
Here I started to frenzy and felt like I was losing something and rushed trying to "recover the green I'd had, if I...".
Smarter move was laying Golubev at 1.09 serving for the set on the set winner market, again tension caught him, and he was broken. I rarely play something other than the match winner, and I'm very happy with this from me.
Rosol raised at 6-5* and this time I went for equal green on both set and match market.
Rosol won the set, he hasn't been so good though, and he doesn't even shows that sparkle that some players have when playing Davis Cup.
This morning I got into a rerun Vogele - Wozniacki: Woz is still the same (I'd say hopeless), but Vogele is a good player, she hits hard the ball from both side, even though I think she prefers her backhand as sometimes she turns around to hit with it.
Nothing for this afternoon: day of doubles for the Davis Cup, while matches start later in Charleston.
Next week it's going to be an intense one with the red clay season beginning and moving toward Europe for both men, in Casablanca, and the newborn Katowice for the ladies.
Showing posts with label Wozniacki. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wozniacki. Show all posts
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
ATP / WTA Moscow and Luxembourg picks - tuesday
So many matches to study and so many matches at the same time as well, that is very difficult to work out something really good.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.
I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.
WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.
4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.
Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.
Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.
Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.
WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.
In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
ATP/WTA picks thursday
It's been a couple of days that I'm not too inspired about pre-match pick, I'll post some thoughts in order to keep them in mind when action will start tomorrow as well.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.
Beijing ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.
Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Week 41 - ATP draws and picks
So two 500 tournaments this week.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)