Charleston WTA

Yesterday it was a very poor day for my pre-match bets: all three were completely wrong: Tatishvili was run over by Lisicki, the german girl looks at her ease on this surface (she won the title in 2009 and was quartefinalist last year).

My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.

As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.

Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.

Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.

Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).

To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.

Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.

Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.

Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.

Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.

Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched  all the green on Jankovic).

Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.

A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults. 

Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.

I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.

 

   

Charleston WTA

Single draw

I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.



Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.

Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.

I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.

Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.

Other bets.

A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.

Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.

L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.

-6

Zahlavova S. - Putintseva Live

Since I can't stand Ferrer to beat Murray and I found odds on this match bit crazy( 1.90 - 1.90) , I'll watch it.

Both at the 2nd round winning 2-0 in the 1st.
Barbora n. 62 WTA defated young french C. Garcia.
Putintseva ('95) n.127 WTA defeating spaniard Pous Tio. This girl on may won 100.000$ ITF Cagnes-sur-mer starting from as qualified.

P. holds serve.
In the 2nd game the real play starts and P shows some offensive skills attacking from the centre with the forehand, and varying with slice backhand and drop shots.
B. holds thogh 2 bps.
1-1

BZS goes to 15-40 with 3 net approach.
P. takes the game to advantages with a big serve to the body and a passing with BSZ at the net.
BSZ breaks after another bp was saved.
2-1

Barbora holds easily and luckily with two balls stopped by the net, maybe it's not much thight.
3-1

Some problems on the serve for P. She double fault twice in a row.
Again 15-40 and again P saves playing on the backhand side from wich BZS is trying to escape.
BZS breaks again avoiding to play from baseline
4-1

P. leads the game from baseline with heavy strokes from both sides but BZS both defeds well and changes the rhytm with dropshot and serve and volley.
5-1

BZS keeps playing very smartly not giving still point to P. and getting others bps.
BZS exploit P.'s second serve hitting long-line return and following it to the net.
6-1

Untill odds on BZS to break the serve still over @2 I'll pick it

Match restart on the same way of the previous set: P. hit cross backhand, BZS doesn't offer still point and also plays serveandvolley.
Very long first game on BZS serve with many chances for P to break. There also a very long rally, after that P. bend on her knees exausted.
Video shut and also market got closed for a little while
1-0*

When P.'s serving a second from the right is always the same scheme: return down the line followed to the net by BZS.
1*-1

BZS holds to 30 playing with the feet inside the court and risking on P.'s deep strokes
2-1*

P. looks tired on her legs. Her forehand swings sometimes goes rounder.
Rallies got shorter with P trying to hit winners earlier.
P's serve is broken on a double fault
3*-1

BZS easily holds. To the record a lovely forehand dropshot from a meter behind the line by BZS.
4-1*

BZS up 0-40 then three unreturned serves 40-40.
BZS breaks after 2 gp for P.
5*-1

P. won't loose too soon and breaks for the first time. Few mistakes from BZS.
5-2*

BZS breaks to win the match.

Smart match from BZS.
Nice talented this young P. Offensive baseliner, able to play onehand backhand backspin as defending stroke, though she's doublehanded. Also played good volleys though very rarely. Bad second serve.

Nice livebetting for me with all those BZS' breaks.