WTA - Challenger

Only small pick today, from Banja Luka and Todi:

Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.

Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.

Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.

+0.95

Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was  more solid, more focused than most of her match.

ATP - 17/07

I don't know if it's universally known but there's this statistical rule, one of those unwritten rules that often happen in sports; It's called "Regola di Tommasi" (Tommasi's rules, translated), it's something like this: players who played in a final (winner or runner-up doesn't matter) very often lose the first round in the very next tournament. It's because those players have played a full week, and there's a great amount of mental energy involved, and after the final they relax a bit and lose focus.
Todays picks will follow this:

F Cipolla - M Cilic: pick Cipolla @6.97 1 unit
Huge odds here for Cipolla that has already defeated Cilic once.

N Almagro - T Kamke: pick Kamke @4.79 2 units
Odds may differe since I made the pick yesterday.
Almagro was also complaining about some kind of shoulder injury.
Also Kamke to win the first set will be ok.
Anyway I don't think he will complete the first set, should be something to bet on "one ball" books, which I don't have.

-3 Not worked here