Sun 9/02 - Olympic men's Downhill

Alpine skiing officially debuts at the Olympics.

Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):

Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.

Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.

Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.  

Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.

From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.

Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.

I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.

Place and final position in this season downhills

Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better

Svindal is just impressive

Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel

Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.

DNF in Beaver Creek

Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)

Sat 18/01 - Cortina and Wengen Downhills

Very heavy saturday as both gender are racing on the best (imho) downhill courses of their calendar.

Open brawl in women's one, where I honestly don't know what could happen. Maze likes this slope, but Maria Riesch looks like the one to beat. Fenninger, Weirather and Kaufmann-Abderalden, though, have been the most solid so far, while Gut's shape has little faded and Goergl's one has raised.
To all this there's to add the cancelled training, and due to fog start has already been lowered.

In men's DH I think there might be surprises -read Svindal could not win this. The vinking in fact doesn't like this course and has never won here (he also crashed dramatically last year).
I couldn't say who could replace Svindal on the top step of the podium though; my names are: Innerhofer, who usually does well here, and so do Reichelt; same for Kroell but his form doesn't look the best; my dark horse would be Beat Feuz: the Swiss has won here in 2012 and his season has been decent considering he's skipped last season

Today's pick, and yesterday's outcome.

EDIT: Cortina has been cancelled, pick refounded

25/01 Men' Super-G - Kitzbuehel

Opening day at the Grand Slam of the Alpine skiing.
A technical Super-G, but also with some flat section, anyway some key turns will do the difference.
Sadly weather conditions don't look the best, powder and some low clouds... let's hope in a regular race.

h2h Baumann - Fill - pick Baumann 3 units @1.68 Lost -3
Fill's got bib #2 so will start "blind" without seeing any other racer and so the course, and also with powder still on it.
Baumann is #28, and he's in raising shape.

h2h Innerhofer - Streitberger -pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.95 Won +1.9
h2h Clarey - Streiberger - pick Clarey 2 units @2.42 Won +2.84
Two picks against Streitberger and his low starting bib, #5 and the powder still on course whene he'll take the start.
Innerhofer is #8 and Clarey #26.
Both also seems in better shape than Streiberger, who might be overrated for two podiums here in the past but last race was not last year but two yeas ago and his fit is much worse than then.

+1.74