Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

-------------------------------------------------

Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

18/01 Men's Super-Combined - Wengen

The long weekend in Wengen opens with a Super-Combined event, which is made by a downhill and only one run of slalom.
After the downhill the start list of the slalom is made from dh top 30 reversed (first start 30th placed of the dh, then 29th... down to 1st placed, after this also athletes out of top30 take the start, a win from these is much unlikely to happen)
It's the first of only two Combined in this season's calendar, next one (last one) is next weekend in Kitzbuhel.
Only one run of slalom makes those who prefer downhill big favored anyway...

h2h Svindal - Ligety - pick Ligety 1 unit @3.28 Lost -1
Big opportunity for Svindal to get some important points for the World Cup as current leader Hirscher is not racing in this event.
Anyway Ligety can suffer little damages in the dowhill and take the start in the slalom with a good number (from 15-20 I think) and make a good run.
While Svindal, who's not a slolom specialist, will take the start with one of the last number and run on a ruined slope and to take care of scoring points he'll probably go down very carefully

h2h Marsaglia - Innerhoffer - pick Marsaglia 1 unit @3.01 Lost -1
Small stake on the young Marsaglia, who's started his career as specialist of the combined.
Recently he's focused more on speed events like Downhill and Super-G reducing the gap between him and Innerhoffer.

h2h Raich - Jansrud - pick Raich 2 units @2.62 Won +3.24
Too bad odds are much more high now.
Anyway I think Combined is the only event where Raich can hope in some big results. He hardly finishes out of the top 10.
Jansrud is a great downhiller but lacks in slalom, I hope he'll use this event like an additional training for the true Dowhill race of saturday

h2h Innerhofer - Theaux - pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.75 Won +1.5
Odd is right, tough head to head, I prefer Innerhofer that maybe overall is better in both downhill and slalom.

h2h Jansrud - Pinturault - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.70 Won +2.1
Pinturault it's the best slalom specialist racing this one.
He's also decent enough in speed disciplines, and I think his team is working on him to make him compete for the Cup in the future, so combined is a good starting point and test to see his attitudes.

h2h Paris - Puchner - pick Paris 2 units @1.62 Won +1.24
I don't know how's Puchner in slalom, I think not good like most of downhill racer.
Paris is quite good in Combined, great in downhill and decent enough in slalom

+6.08
Bit lucky for Jansrud lost a ski while he was doing a good slalom run, he was close to beat Raich.
Decent Slalom also from Paris.
Very bad Svindal who's lost the little slalol-skills he had years ago.
Pinturault is too strong in slalom also for Kostelic by now.

12/01 Men's Giant Slalom - Adelboden - pre-draw

Usual look at the odds offered before the bib's draw and the starting list.
In evidence the h2hs including skiers who aren't in the same group of merit for the draw. Underlined the name whose odds I think is going to lower. Anyway odds not offer too much as always, only that Reichelt around the even is temptive, but he's doing very bad so better to skip.

Here the picks:
h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.61
One of the head to head with the red circle.
Pinturault is a better Giantist, although Neureuther has had some good results in recent Giant-Slaloms.
There's also a big difference in the start list: Pinturault will be in the first seven gropu, while Neureuther is 20th in the start list.

h2h Fanara - Dopfer - pick Fanara 2 units @1.66
Again a red circled h2h.
Fanara is in the 1 to 7 group, Dopfer in the 8 to 15 one.
So here difference in smaller, and also results's difference is smaller, though I think Fanara is slightly better.

h2h Haugen - Eisath - pick Haugen 2 units @1.71
Not huge difference in this, Haugen is 28th, Eisath is ot of the top30, 31.
Haugen is doing much better and improving his ranking: he was out of the top30 at the beginning of the season.
Haugen has always won this h2h in previus Giant-Slaloms.

h2h Jansrud - Raich - pick Raich 2 units @1.96
Not a marked one as theiy're in the same group.
Both had a bad season in Giant-Slalom.
But I dare say for different reason: Jansrud has problem in turning where there's a short distance between the gates, that's probably becuse of the new radius of the skis.
Raich... I don't know... it could be his age, and recent injuries, but perhaps it's just something about the physical preparation the Austrian team made, as there are bad reasults in the whole austrian team, and the preparation has set them to have results for the World Championships, later this season.
Anyway Raich has a good feeling with this slope, 2nd place last here, and three victory in the past, he's never finished worse then 7th place since 2005.

14/12 Men Super-G - Val Gardena and Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere

Very rich calendar this weekend, and also following next week.

Men Super-G - Val Gardena

h2h Theaux - Guay - pick Theaux 2 units @3.11 win +4.22
Although he's very constant in his results, above all in this very slope, Erik Guay seems to be missing something that prevent him from very big results, recently. He's not at his best among turns, while long flat sections are his natural enviroment. So a Super-G doesn't suit hime too much.
Theaux showed lots of improvements in past season, and confirmed that with a 2nd place in the Super-G of Lake Louise.

Jansrud to podium 1 unit @2.25 lost -1
Track made by Norway's coach, and norvegian reportedly in top shape.

Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere

h2h Gut - Goergl - pick Goergl 3 units @2.12 lost -3
Starting number: Gut #2, Goergl #19.
Explanation of this odds is: they where expecting a storm or something so Gut starting early could avoid it.
But

So Gut will race almost blindly, while Goergl will have reports from racer who've completed the race before her start.
Goergl made better time in both time-trial.


+0.22