Sat 15/02 - Ladies Olympic Super-G

I tried to figure out something about ladies Super-G but I came out with nothing.

As seen so far all the events of alpine skiing have been quite crazy, with all the favourites (but Hoefl-Riesch in ladies combined) flopping big and outsiders popping up everywhere.

That's all about this kind of events, where all that matter is being in one of the top three placements, so everyone push to 100% and the space between a big performance and a failure is very narrow, and failure in alpine skiing is also a line just 1 meter wider that results in few cents of second loss. 

Only safe statement about what has happened so far is: "team Switzerland is in excellent form".

And Swiss have few good arrows to shoot in ladies SG: Gut, Gisin and Suter.

Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Fenninger, Mancuso, Hosp among the others, while Goergl seems to be not liking this snow- she's always dangerous though-, Weirather is in the starting list but her forms should be vary bad after an injury in training that had her missing the downhill, same for Gagnon and Rebensburg -always struggling with health issues.

Opposing these last names is all I advice. With spring-time temperature an early starter winner is much possible, I'm not doing any specific name though as it didn't pay so far (I haven't posted the outcome of ladies DH, a bit late eh?):

Sat 25/01 - Kitzbuehel and Cortina(2) Downhills

Another good day yesterday, winning all the head to heads. Actually, I haven't seen what happened in slalom's run2 - I know it was strange, although not as strange as run1 setted by Papa Kostelic.
Feeling is that Hargin's peak form is either gone, or rather faded, or it's still there (he's stil a top performer) but he's bearing in his mind what happened in Adelboden when he couldn't hold the lead and dropped to 4th in the second run.

On to today's DHs - the biggest events of the tours.

I think anything could happen in Kitz. But for the most part Bode looks like the one who should win (my humble opininion: Bode came back more for winning Kitz than for the Olympics). Svindal maybe his the best physical power and endurance -key elements on this long course. Reichelt's form has raised recently and so Kueng's. Last year winner, Paris, had problems getting back in shape after his crash in december, hardly he'll defend his title.

On ladies side Hoefl-Riesch is the one to beat, her form is terrific at the moment and she's in full run for the Cup.
Behind her the same lot: Fenninger, Weirather and Goergl.
I had good impressions from Mancuso yesterday, and I'm backing her today, she's getting closer and closer to the top, and so is the whole US team: almost every one scored a season best yesterday.
So I'm picking Leanne Smith over Marchand-Arvier: the frenchwoman lost the whole pre-season and came back to race only few weekends ago, all the missing time is sensible seeing her racing.
Also backing Merighetti, on her favourite course; I know Schmidhofer (bib #39) was 3rd yesterday but I think condition changed a bit for late starters: young US Jakie Wiles (bib #41) was 15th (first WC points for her) and Hungarian Miklos (bib #45) was 18th tied with Slovenian Ferk (bib #38)  

Fri 24/01 - Kitzbuehel men's slalom and Cortina ladies' downhill 1

The most important weekend of men's tour kicks off with the slalom. This is kind of special also because run 1 will be at 12 while run 2 at 17, big gap between the two runs. Note that run 2 will be a night run (watch out for Yuasa)

Pick from ladies' SG was a winner: Schmidhofer 16th finished more or less were I expected her, Ruiz-Castillo made me panic scoring the best intermediate time at Int1, but then she was awful and finished 30th.
Goergl won confirming her good form, and so Hoefl-Riesch close behind and getting more and more close to the Cup; good third place for Nici Hosp.
Maze and Mancuso looked in better shape, and so american Cook; on the other hand Gut, 19th, in falling down almost vertically.

On to men's picks.
Kristoffersen, though he'll start with a worse bib in run 1, is performing better than Moelgg.
Hargin and Neureuther are closer to their opponents than odds suggest. I think Hargin is in great form and that the bad result in Wengen was because of the snow conditions, that didn't let him ski aggressively as he does.
 

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 1 ladies

Back blogging; I have few thoughts to write down about what's happening on the World Cup. A decent amount of races already completed some trending becoming evident.

Maze doesn't amaze anymore

Unrecognisable in giant-slalom and in super-g where she showed some lethargic movements, a little sparkle came with a 3rd place in Levi's slalom.

She's collected just 130 points and is 7th placed in the Cup standing.

My humble opinion is: she's aiming the Olympics, her form will come later this season.

This and Vonn still out make the fight for the Crystal Globe interesting. Although some young guns are make it interesting anyway.

Young guns: Gut, Shiffrin, Weirather

The hot names of the moment.

Gut is finally proving her talent. Three wins on the first three races and a solid lead in the Overall Standing, then out during the first run of the GS... she's still kind of unbeaten so far.
Shiffrin won the opening slalom starting the new season from where she left, but as proof of her growing up there's her first GS podium. In very short she'll rule both technical disciplines -Hirsher teaches that they're enough to win the Globe, do your math.
Weirather more than a Tina 2 looks like Gut's double, they trains together indeed. Technically speaking Tina is less aggressive on turns than Gut but has better flat sections. 3rd place in Beaver's GS was her first podium in that discipline, made even greater by the fact she was bib #29, so she's lot to work on her Starting List.

Team talk: US, Norway.

The aspect that probably most intrigues me of this sport it's the [with Gandalf voice - it sounds a bit philosophical and I had a teacher who... long story, nevermind] duality Team-Athlete: it's true that you're on your own out on the slope, but that is just a drop in the sea of training either on slopes and in gyms (plus other pre-season exercises like running and cycling), all shared with teammates. So when you leave the starting gate you put on course your individual value, your liking or disliking the slope, the course setting, other mental factors and so on, but beside this there's a big slice of the pie made by training, which is the same for you and your teammates. It's not uncommon seeing few flags of the same nation gathering at some point of the final standing of a race.
For example tennis is individual, and training is individual too. Pro-tennis players have their own staff and there aren't groups of players with similar trends. Yet Errani and Vinci since they started working together showed "similar" progress and reached their career best rank almost at the same time.
All this to say that I love talk teams.

US have to thank Shiffrin, who all alone saved the USskiteam on home soil from what looked like a Little Bighorn. Although she has to be considered more by herself than as part of a team -sorry, Resi!-, where US really team-up is in fast disciplines: Vonn and Mancuso are top racers while Smith, Ross and Cook are solid teammate worth of top10 placements. The best this bunch has done is Cook's 19th place in DH.

The most probable explanation to this is their preparation that has to be centered on the Olympics, this would be typical of the US above all of Mancuso: she better performs on biggest stages like Olympics or World Champs than on tours stages - she's won more Olympics medal than Vonn, to say.

Opposite form is showed by the Norway team, or Vikings as they're nicknamed. Actually they're not at the very top but this is a young team and after few years passed fighting for a top30 placement now they're finding the top10 with some continuity.
Ragnhild Mowinckel was the one showing the greater improvement, previous to her 8th place in Beaver's GS she scored great results in some "warm-up" events held in Copper Mountain. Almost all those events were won by Lotte Sejersted, on the World Cup satges she probably was the most disappointing though, with only a 10th place in Super-G.
The elder Loeseth, Nina, was 12th in Beaver's GS backing her 7th place achieved in Levi. She's recorded a 1st and a 3rd place in two Nor-Am GS kept this week.
The younger Loeseth, Mona, remained in the old continent competiting in European Cup record a win and a 4th place in GS and a win and a 2nd place in SL.

Other team worth mentioning are Swiss (+ Weirather), with solid team either in fast and tech disciplines, and Canada.

Thumb up for the new Raptor course 

Schaldming 2013 - Super-G Ladies

Super-G slope, technical data

Although all those numbers, the slope of the women Super-G is not so hard.
There's been only one race on this slope, last year.
Anyway conditions will be different, considering last year the race was in march and the snow was "rotten", wet, for the warm temperatures.
This time there will be a more hard snow, but, BUT it'll be beneath a coat of soft powder.
So other than last year, this time low starting bib will be disadvantaged in favour of later starter.
All this if low clouds and fog don't mess it up even more.

As I said in previous post Vonn is bookies favourite, but her price to me worth a lay.
She's not convincing me among Super-Gs's turns and there are some strong competitor.
Fenninger is an aggressive racer and she's also racing "at home", in Austria.
Mancuso is one of my favourite in this kind of events because she can often give a little more, she levels up her performances.
Winner: Mancuso 1 unit @12 Lost -1
Winner: Fenninger 1 unit @9 Lost -1

h2h Schmidhofer - Aufdenblatten - pick Aufdenblatten 6 units @2.02 Lost -6

Die Piste in Schladming ist in einem guten Zustand – Schlechte Nachrichten aus dem ÖSV Lager – Nicole „Nici“ Schmidhofer die das Rennen mit Startnummer 1 eröffnet ist über Nacht krank geworden. ÖSV Damencheftrainer Herbert Mandl: Nici hat eine Bauchgrippe erwischt. Sie hat die ganze Nacht gebrochen und kaum ein Auge zugetan. Sie wird wohl nicht so bei Kräften sein wie wir es uns erhofft haben.” Bei der Besichtigung, die zur Stunde stattfindet ist Schmidhofer aber dabei.

The quote says that Schimdhofer doesn't feel well, she's been ill this night.
More reasons are given from her low starting bib, #1, so witouth knowing the course and probably with powder still on it.
Her only relevant previous result, 2nd place in Cortina, was made in a strange race due to weather conditions.
Aufdenblatten has a good starting bib , #15, and she's experienced and she can easily finish in top 15.

h2h LindellVikarby - Fanchini - pick Fanchini 2 units @2.75 Void 0
Little controversy in this one as the bookie says Elena Fanchini, who's not racing, there's her sister Nadia instead.
Let's see because as the previous pick Lindell-Vikarby has a low starting bib, #2, while the racing Fanchini is #31.

h2h Fenninger - Rebensburg - pick Fenninger 3 units @1.90 Lost -3
Rebensburg victory on this slope, last year, was made in strange conditions.
I actually think the gap between these two is a bit wider in favour of Fenninger.

Very bad day for me, and for the race.
The continuos start delays and so different conditions, the fact that the race started hours after the patrol and study of the course... all this and other reasons makes pre-race analysis pointless.
Anyway Mancuso did something great, she confirmed her beast mode in these events.
Fenninger made a stupid mistake, this watching from TV, missing a gate; actually many other racers missed that gate.
Fenninger was also a bit nervy, and so was Hoefl-Riesch, taking start just after Vonn's terrible crush.

Maze is just the best, this season she's going to win anything, great attitude.
Gut... I've always doubts about her, today she was great maybe I should consider her like Mancuso.
Goggia, 4th place, is a great talent on which keep an eye.