ATP Valencia picks

I'm very happy that the lay on Tsonga has already landed, although now I've got to find someone else to back or to lay.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.

Today's picks.

Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).

While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.

Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33

Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.

Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.

Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.

Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.

Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.

Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.

USO R1 - Day 1

M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan

D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)

R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.

I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)

0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day