Mon 10/02 - Ladies Super-Combined

No time for divagations, just the picks

Sun 9/02 - Olympic men's Downhill

Alpine skiing officially debuts at the Olympics.

Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):

Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.

Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.

Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.  

Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.

From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.

Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.

I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.

Place and final position in this season downhills

Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better

Svindal is just impressive

Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel

Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.

DNF in Beaver Creek

Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)

#RoadtoSochi - last leg

Yep, this is pic is disturbing.
Neureuther in Germany uniform.

Missed last weekend, mostly because I knew weather conditions would have been tough and thought few would have race 100%, but actually it resulted in a nice weekend (or rather Sunday).

Now on to Sochi and the Olympics games.

Little could be said about the hills, though as usual for this kind of events are going to be easy (to boring) slopes.

Test races were held there in 2012 but I wouldn't relate too much on those results.

Anyway here are few videos.

Hans Knauss on Men's Downhill slope

And Mr.GS Ted Ligety trying Giant-Slalom's slope. This one is a bit more relevant as it happened only last year and Ligety exclusively trained on that slope. All this to add to the fact that this hill perfectly suits to Ted's style.



Schedule of the Games:












This week I'll try to make some graphs about main athletes results and forms, I had thought for long. Should give better idea of current shape of some of them.  

OlymPICKs IV

Two days in a row of green allow me try something more.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Novak Djokovic: pick Tsonga @4.32 1 unit
Jo has not a bad head-to-head record against Nole, 6-5 for serbian.
Ok most of Tsonga's wins are a bit old and Nole is younger by 2 years but also recently, at the French Open Tsonga's came close to a win, he wasted even some match points.
Then in the real Wimbledon Jo showed great skill as grass-courter, being weight but even very dynamic, his match were delightful to watch.
Nole seems very far from all this. He's not in 2011, no need to repeat, and he always looks like he's not playing at 100%, he lacks of shape and also I reckon he lacks of will.
Yesterday's first set against Hewitt, was not only a great set by the aussie, but also these lackness that were showing theirself. Then Hewitt 31 years old and hundreds of surgery lowered the tension and even that Djokovic came back for a win.
Today there will be a much different match, balls will be heavier, service games harder to break, a gear shift is needed.
Also the Tsonga +1,5 set looks good but I don't wanto to get too much involved.

I had a thought about Kim to beat Maria, but I'll leave it.

OlymPICKs III and half

The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.

Here's yesterday's:

Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit

Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit

But let's go on.

Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit

Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this. 

I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.

He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.

John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units

Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.

Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.

But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup. 

David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit

Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.

The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.

This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.

Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit

I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.

Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.

So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units

Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.

I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same. 

Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.

My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50

Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units

Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.

Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds

Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83

OlymPICKs II

Two high odds form the 2nd round at the Olympics.

Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.


Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.

-3

OlymPICKs

It's a while I'm not posting anything.
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).

First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.

At first sight to me notable odds are:

• Nalbandian tb Tipsarevic @2.5 I don't think the 3-0 in the real Wimby is thruthful, El Gordo worth much more on grass. Tipso has had a great couple of weeks (a title and a runner-up) but he also showed great skills to waste break-points.
• Troicki tb Almagro @2.5 Troicki has been one of the worst player so far in this season, collecting tons of 1st and 2nd round (it's a bit of wonder how he's lost few positions in the ranking), a little bright in Wimby reaching R16, while Almagro on grass is just... not on clay, even against Troicki he can't play far behind the baseline.
• Pironkova tb Cibulkova @2.4 Piro has had a bad season but motsly she build it on Wimby, this years her draw was very unlucky, but she has second chance

Also nice: Keothavong @6.5 vs Wozniacki: I'm not saying that Keo is going to win but playing at home, in the Centre Court...

Szavay@3.25 vs Baltacha: Agnes is un ranked she's playing for what? Totally free from pression and all...

Jie Zheng @2.10 vs Petrova with the chinese that took Serena in the third at Wimby

Venus @1.7 vs Errani. Same thing as Almagro for Errani: lack of skill to play on grass, her second serve is something should forbid her to be a top10, Venus will return several winners on it, and she can't hit back everything as she do on clay.