Sun 22/12 - Val d'Isere and Alta Badia Giant-Slaloms

Results form the two downhills, a little 1.8u profit.
Fanchini crashed, it was a strange crash after a jump but not on the landing, her run was too short to be commented.
Maze, though, made a good run and was 2nd behind Kaufmann-Abderalden at her 1st career victory. Swiss team was all over placing also Weirather (not Swiss but training with them) Aufdenblatten and Gisin in the top10. Gut was 25th and Suter 17th, and this says much about the characteristics of this slope: it's quite easy, all that matters is being fast, there are few key passages which you have to prepare so to come out of them with the right direction and speed.

Val Gardena's downhill as expected was a question between Canada and Norway, placing a combined of 5 athletes in the top 10. Guay won in front of Jansrud and Clarey.

Picks for sunday's Giant-Slaloms

In short:
Shiffrin was slow in her last slalom, it could be the physical preparation.
Brignone looked good before going out in last GS. She even finished in the top30 in super-g meaning she's in good shape.
Maze was 2nd in DH but I'm still doubtful on technical disciplines.

In men's GS I'm opposing Simoncelli and Rychard for the same motivations: they're in a falling phase and the change of ski radius last season emphasized this fall.
Same could be said for Blardone, anyway Dopfer isn't too brilliant at the moment and I don't trust him on a single at a low price, so put it in a double with Raich which should beat Olsson, but again the price is too low.
Nani - Luitz is a tough head to head between two raising youngster, anyway to me Luitz is like a one-event-man (Val d'Isere) while Nani is doing good everywhere.

St. Moritz and Val d'Isere - the results

This weeked has been a disaster, and feelings are even more mixed because picks weren't actually so wrong and everything could have turned the other way in a blink.

Conceptually-lost bets were the two on Fenninger, and Pranger to podium.
All the others were good.
Deville was (and I think will be in the future) shite finishing 26th, I don't know what happened to Pranger as I haven't seen run1 (ladies' one too) but he should be better than that.
Anyway Val d'Isere is madness: lots of racers ousted, Hirscher made a mistake too and couldn't qualify...
Can't find a common thread for this slalom, sure thing is that you can't "attack" on this hill, but just be calm and clean, experience I think helped as the runner-up Hargin ,28 yo, is the youngest in the top10, and he stepped on podium with Matt and Thaler, 34 and 35 respectively.

Biggest disappointment was Gagnon. 5th after the first leg, in the second was doing equally good, but when 5-6 gates away from the finish line, she fell down wasting a good chance to step on podium. Anyway she's getting closer to it, at this kind of odds might worth keep backing her.
Also Brignone crashed, in the first leg though. Anyway she was about half a second in front of Riesch. Riesch was eventually 11th, and it sorts of confirms that GS is her worst discipline, with possibilities of opposing her as bookies could overrate her at it.
Tessa Worley wins big scoring the best times in both runs.
Lindell-Vikarby is on her level and increases her lead in GS-standing.
Maze found back a good way to ski, her movements didn't look slow as in previous races.

Sun 15/12 - St.Moritz GS Ladies, Val d'Isere SL Men

 Picks decided in today's races:

I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.

Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.

On to next races:

Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.

I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).

Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.

Ladies Giant-Slalom - St.Moritz

h2h Fenninger - Zettel - pick Fenninger 1 unit @2.10 Lost -1
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.

h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.

h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.

-1.9

Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.

In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2