Week 41 - WTA/ATP picks

Busy week to come with two ATP 500 and the second WTA major in a row.

WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.

Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).   

... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66  : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters. 
   
ATP draws next days.

But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.

Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'. 
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.           

Wimby QF

I haven't found yet the pictures I was looking for. It's about yesterday's Spain-Italy, a very funny moment: there's Casillas waving to Balotelli where he should aim, after the striker missed the gol with a shot hundreds metres high and wide (obviously this is followed by well spelled (!) 'vaffanculo').
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).

R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.

J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.

M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know  interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.

A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.

Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live

Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39