Charleston WTA

Yesterday it was a very poor day for my pre-match bets: all three were completely wrong: Tatishvili was run over by Lisicki, the german girl looks at her ease on this surface (she won the title in 2009 and was quartefinalist last year).

My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.

As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.

Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.

Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.

Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).

To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.

Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.

Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.

Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.

Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.

Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched  all the green on Jankovic).

Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.

A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults. 

Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.

I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.

 

   

Charleston WTA

Single draw

I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.



Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.

Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.

I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.

Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.

Other bets.

A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.

Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.

L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.

-6

ATP - 13/07

T Robredo - D Ferrer: pick Robredo +5 games @2.11 1 unit

Ferrer is one of those who hardly give their best facing friends, and I think he won't destroy Tommy, who is also on a very hot period. Maybe the +5,5 is better for it cover the 6-4 6-3, but my tendence to play 2/1 odds has prevailed.

A Ramos - G Dimitrov: pick Ramos @2.35 1 unit

I still don't trust Dimitrov at all. 

Moreover he's facing Ramos one of those typical clay-courter, defensive at the bone with top-spin, moonball, marathon runner, I don't see Dimitrov having enough patience to play many long rallies.

Can't decide what to do with Zopp-Hajek, Zopp's odds are tempting, but Hajek it's doing very very well.

E Cabeza Candela - Irina Begu: pick Cabeza Candela @2.53 1 unit

Again a spaniard clay-courter, with all the clay-weapon (unwinning strokes, moonballs...), facing an untrustworthy player. Begu can suffer of sudden loss of confidence and loose a match after she's had bunch of match point (some weeks ago lost from Schiavone while 6-1 in third set breaker).

On the other hand ECC did the opposite in her previous match coming back from 1-5 in the first set and winning it at the tie-break.

-3 Two unlucky third sets and a little change of mind about Dimitrov who is finding consistency.


Tennis week over, I'll be back again for the first round on next week's tournaments