Tue 14/01 - Ladies Slalom Flachau

Results of Altenmarkt DH, then (luckily?) I didn't have any other bets on Sunday's races.

Today Night Race in Flachau, to determine who's Yuasa among the ladies.
Previous slaloms were won by Shiffrin and Marlies Schild, two win both.
Few names showed enough consistency: Gagnon is solidly in the top 5 bot hasn't got a podium yet, today she's bib #1 and her coach is setting run 1, she comes from her first WC victory, everything seems to point in her direction; Nina Loeseth, although starting with high bibs scored three top10 finish; one last hot name is Bernadette Schild.
Maria Riesch has a good tradition in Flachau, but more than going for the win she'd rather go for points and increase her WC lead.

Picks for tonight.

Huge odds for Zettel and Nina Loeseth: although Zettel is underperforming in slalom she's got a good tradition here, Hansdotter is underperforming as well, so I think it's a very tasty price; as said before Loeseth is constatly in the top10, while Pietilae-Holmner before Bormio's 2nd place had a 20th place and didn't finish the other two slaloms.

Smaller stakes on Eklund and Feierabend. Hosp doesn't look good in slalom, she lacks of reactivity, of that fluency of movements you need in slalom (just look how she wasted over 1 second in the slalom run of the combined). Daum results are close to Feierabend ones, but Daum is achieving those results with better bib numbers than Feierabend, whom is improving: she was #45 in Levi at the start of the season.

Courchevel - SL Ladies results

Very little green, obviously better than a red.

Actually shocked by Schild, or the Schilds, as Marlies won and younger sister Bernadette was 3rd.
Holdener was 9th, more or less where I expected her, surprise was Schild, I believed her a step behind all this yougsters but no, she's still got it.
Anyway Austria was globally good with the Schild sisters 1st and 3rd, Zettel 4th, Kirchgasser 5th, Thalmann 7th (career best) and 2nd best time in run2, Daum 10th and Hosp 13th.
My explanation to this, beside the fact that they all are actually good, is that the snow was "strange", it got rotten very fast forming big grains, and deep trails appeared nearby the base of the posts. Austrians usually are the best in such conditions.

As said Thalmann was good, and is in a great period of confidence, and that's great since she used to get DNFs too often.
Eklund was 11th, she is very precise not aggressive, in fact there's consistency in her results very few DNFs, but on the other hand she's still missing a top result -she's got time for that. Yesterday I think she chocked in run 2, was 4th after the first leg and I believe she's never been placed like that before.
Duerr and Strachova were lethargic their movements were slow, I'll add at this club also Maze and, surprise surprise... Shiffrin 12th with two bad runs, no errors just lack of her usual brillancy.

Unimpressive Swenn-Larsson 15th with two average runs, better from Feierabend 19th but with a higher bib.

Big disappointment was Pietilae-Holmner. Actually her run was too short to be commented, but irony she went long exiting a gate with a very close angle and missed the following gate (my opinion: on a snow with more grip she'll managed to stay in), Poutiainen got difficulties at the same gate but somehow she made the turn on only one ski, the internal one moreover, stayed in but with a big loss of time. Other mistakes came in the second and she eventually went off. Shame.

Courchevel's slope is a bit lively: there are humps which can play bad trick depending on the course setting, inclinations changes here and there (flat-steep-steeper etc...), a long flat section before the finish line. The snow was bad

Tue 17/12 - Courchevel - Ladies Slalom

Mid-week slalom, second of the season, for the ladies. Strange that it's in the morning - mid-week races use to be night races: more fashinating, more TV audience etc...

Slaloms where held here in 2011 and 2010, to say how things changed since the last time: Shiffrin was bib #38 and didn't finish run1, Vonn was bib #16 while now she isn't ranked anymore in SL starting list.

2011's top5 was M.Schild, Poutiainen, Zettel, Kirchgasser, Maze.
While in 2010 it was M.Schild, Poutiainen, Maze, Pietilae-Holmner, Zettel.

Made few picks, easy ones because it's only the scenod slalom of the season so "trends" are yet to show off:

Marlies is 2/2 here, but now she's older, she's had a year-off because of injury, harldy she'll repeat those performances. Holdener is a nice young who's doing well I'd rate her in the top15 of slalom in WC.

I'd rate Swenn-Larsson much better than Feierabend, and also Swenn-Larsson is in the second group of the starting list (bib 8 to 16) while Feierabend is 34th. 

Better shape also for Pietilae-Holmner showed in GS where she's a steady top10 despite the high bibs, in slalom she's in the first group (bib 1 to 7).

In the double picking Eklund and Thalmann, both showing better shape, Thalmann scored two 3rd place in Nor-Am and European Cup slaloms, Eklund won that EC slalom. While going through Strachova and Duerr recent races I've found that both haven't competed in slalom after Levi, racing instead Giant-Slalom (with no relevant results) and surprisingly Super-Gs and Dowhnills.

    

Sun 15/12 - St.Moritz GS Ladies, Val d'Isere SL Men

 Picks decided in today's races:

I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.

Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.

On to next races:

Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.

I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).

Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.

Ladies Slalom - Ofterschwang

Hard to understand how weather and snow conditions will affect the race, let's hope it'll be regular enough

h2h Gagnon - N.Loeseth - pick Gagnon 3 units @1.83 Won +2.49
Strange to see these two tied for the bookies, but it is fair to say Loeseth is in front of Gagnon in the slalom standing.
Anyway Gagnon overall is much better than Loeseth, the problem with the canadian is that she's good only in single sections or runs, and then she waste all the good she's done with some orrible mistake.
Like yesterday when she was fifth after the first run of the GS, then wasted it all almost falling down, finished 30th.

h2h Pietilae-Holmner - Mielzyinski -pick Mielzyinski 2 units @2.50 Lost -2
Pietilae-Holmner's got much luck drawing no.1 she'll have the course in perfect conditions.
She looked in big troubles yesterday, though, maybe for the snow.
Mielzyinski is a very clean racer, and hardly doesn't finish a stage, she also enjoy humid conditions, third place this year in Zagreb, and her only career win was right here in Ofterscwang last year.

I also pick: Mielzyinski top 3 1 unit @11 Lost -1

-0.51

Bad performance by Mielzynski, she also straddled in the second run and went out, hard for her to beat yesterday's Pietilae-Holmner to be honest, the swedish seems to have better feeling with the slalom than with the Giant-slalom.
Very nice from Gagnon 4th place, one of her best career result... if she hadn't messed up the second run of the Giant-Slalom of saturday it would have been her best weekend ever.

Again Maze shows her best, her mind-clutchness. She wins and also jump on the lead of the slalom standing 595 points against Shiffrin's 588.
The baby american felt the pressure nad looked very rigid in the second run, 20th time of the run and she's down to the 3rd place.

Also to mention:
Wendy Holdener, of the raising Swiss SL team, she's been on a steady growth this year from borderline top 30 she's into the second group of the starting list and now is 7th in discipline's standing.
Anna Goodman, veteran candian slalomist, but at her first World Cup race in one year, best time of the second run and 15th place.

27/01 Slaloms - Kitzbuehel and Maribor

Sorry, no picks for the Downhill, I just wanted to watch and enjoy it, mind free...

Ladies first:
h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 1 unit @1.80 Won +0.8
Couldn't resist, I really like Gagnon, she's aggressive and deserve top placement, also true that she does too many mistakes.
Zahrobska isn't on high levels, due a surgery in the summer.
Slope is easy and Gagnon shouldn't have many troubles.
Gagnon starting with #9 and Zahrobska 19.

h2h Pietilae-Holmner - Mielzynski - pick Mielzynski 2 units @2.25 Void 0
Mielzynski is having a great season, while Pietilae-Holmner struggles to find her best form.
Also some numbers of difference in the starting list that should advantage Mielzynski: 8 & 15.

Men:
h2h Pinturault - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @1.90 Won +1.8
Myhrer isn't in a good period, coming from two DNF in a row, he also hasn't got great placements on this slope, 6th as his best not too good for a top like him.
On the other hand Pinturault struggles to put together two runs, because he's aggressive and falls easily in mistake.
This time though he'll ski differently because there's also the Combined Cup for him, changing style is never easy.

h2h Pranger - Grange - pick Grange 2 units @2.00 Lost -2
Pranger in bad shape so far.
Grange in raising form, best time in the second run of Wengen and a minor FIS Slalom won in mid-week.

+0.6

Great shame for Grange who was doing very well, had only +0.02s gap from Gross, leader of the first run; the french is in big shape.

I think that I'm overrating Gagnon, maybe her real level is from 10th to 20th, lucky that Zahrobska has been very poor today.