Fri 24/01 - Kitzbuehel men's slalom and Cortina ladies' downhill 1

The most important weekend of men's tour kicks off with the slalom. This is kind of special also because run 1 will be at 12 while run 2 at 17, big gap between the two runs. Note that run 2 will be a night run (watch out for Yuasa)

Pick from ladies' SG was a winner: Schmidhofer 16th finished more or less were I expected her, Ruiz-Castillo made me panic scoring the best intermediate time at Int1, but then she was awful and finished 30th.
Goergl won confirming her good form, and so Hoefl-Riesch close behind and getting more and more close to the Cup; good third place for Nici Hosp.
Maze and Mancuso looked in better shape, and so american Cook; on the other hand Gut, 19th, in falling down almost vertically.

On to men's picks.
Kristoffersen, though he'll start with a worse bib in run 1, is performing better than Moelgg.
Hargin and Neureuther are closer to their opponents than odds suggest. I think Hargin is in great form and that the bad result in Wengen was because of the snow conditions, that didn't let him ski aggressively as he does.
 

Thu 23/01 - Cortina ladies Super-G 1

Veeeery long weekend for alpine skiing. Ladies racing 2 downhills and 2 super-gs replacing the cancelled races in Cortina last weekend, and replacing Garmish.
Men in Kitzbuehel, where from lack of snow we're passed to too much snow, and schedule is changed almost every 15 minutes. Main goal of the organizators is to save the downhill that is like the Wimbledon or Super Bowl of alpine skiing.

First the (shite) results from last weekend:

Market not offering big prices today, only found this bet.

Schmidhofer is quite solid in SG and was 2nd last year, Ruiz-Castillo is too up-and-down though she was 4th last year.

Small margins for a surebet on E.Fanchini - Lindell-Vikarby between bet365 and pinnacle

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Ladies and gentlemen Super-G - Garmisch and Kvitfjell

Ladies with another Super-G in Garmisch, the true one on the proper slope.

h2h Lindell-Vikarby - Cook - pick Lindell-Vikarby 4 units @1.71 Won +1.84
Bordeline odd but it reflects the reality in the right way: Lindell-Vikarby usually is into a top 20 placement in Super-G while Cook struggles a lot and hardly finds a top 30 placement.

And two picks based on the run for the year's finals in Lenzerheide:
h2h Ruiz-Castillo - Hosp - pick Hosp 2 units @1.90 Won +1.8
Hosp is first excluded but only two points away from qualification.
She's been 5th on friday, while has rested yesterday.
Ruiz-Castillo is 9th postion so she's sure to be qualified.

h2h Moser - Sterz - pick Moser 2 units @1.76 Lost -2
Moser is last placed in the run for the finals, though a very little gap. Sterz is 18th and can be quite sure to be in.
Few number difference in the starting list so little weather variables.
Moser is doing quite well here in Garmisch

Super-g also for the men in Norway, yesterday wind played a big role so I don't feel like gamble that much also today.

Mayer top 3 1 unit @4.60 Lost -1
Mayer is doing a great season and he's improved a lot. In Super-G his worst placement is a 7th place.
With some top racers like Marsaglia and Reichelt that seems to have a little fuel left Mayer might find a spot in the podium

+1.64

Ladies and Gentlemen's Downhill - Garmisch and Kvitfjiell

Long morning of fast speed today.
At 10:30 (CET) kickoff of ladies' downhill in Garmisch, followed by men's downhill in Kvitfjell at 11:45 (CET).

In his homeland Svindal is seeking points for both Overall and Downhill Globes.
In Germany Maze needs at least a 4th place to keep alive her hope for the Downhill Cup.

Yesterday the Super-G in Garmisch was affected by the early worn of the snow, that played an important role for the winner, Tina Weirather.

Today I expect something similar to happen:
h2h Marchand-Arvier - Gut - pick Marchan-Arvier 2 units @2.42 Lost -2
Marchand-Arvier is bib #9, Gut is 15.
Gut still too much up and down. She's aggressive and takes many risks resulting in some great performances and many mistakes. Allegedly the bad snow conditions won't suit her style. Still she's able of doing anything.
Marchand-Arvier, as the whole french team, recently has leveled up her performances.

h2h RuizCastillo - Weirather - pick Ruiz-Castillo 2 units @2.37 Lost -2
Ruiz-Castillo in no.8, Weirather is 17 in the starting list.
As said before Weirather took great benefit from her low number, #3, yesterday to claim her first career win.
And so did Ruiz-Castillo, #4, who was 6th, 0.33 s behind Weirather.
So the two are close in their skills.
Ruiz-Castillo recently claimed her first career win, last weekend in Meribel; she has worked a lot and partly with the french team and results are coming for her.

-4
No way Marchand-Arvier can beat Gut when Gut is in a good day.

Anyway both lost because it's worked opposit to my thinking: the course has become faster as the race went on.
In other news Maze made history beatind Hermann Maier's points record of 2000 overall points.