So two 500 tournaments this week.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Week 41 - WTA/ATP picks
Busy week to come with two ATP 500 and the second WTA major in a row.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Tokyo WTA 1R
One lone bet as there will be few first round for the ATP
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 40 loading
Finally back and in full capacity.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
ATP St. Petersbourg
2 pick from this tournament... I still have PC problem and I won't be able to see any match.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Week 39 loading
Back with some ATP and WTA.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
WTA
Some problems with the PC so I can't see any match and so I did yesterday.
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
WTA - Challenger
Only small pick today, from Banja Luka and Todi:
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Monday, September 10, 2012
This week...
This week tournaments draws:
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Next week
-7 units this week following Genova Challenger, though got some ideas about the style of some players to consider as an investement for the future.
I don't know what I'll follow next week.
I think a bit of the WTA of Tashkent and the Banja Luka and Todi Challenger.
A little double of favourites Robredo who I'm not expecting to fail against Montanes (solid 8-0 lead in the head to head) and a young girl from the WTA Quebec qualies:
Robredo @1.57
Scholl @1.50
Double 2 units @2.35
I don't know what I'll follow next week.
I think a bit of the WTA of Tashkent and the Banja Luka and Todi Challenger.
A little double of favourites Robredo who I'm not expecting to fail against Montanes (solid 8-0 lead in the head to head) and a young girl from the WTA Quebec qualies:
Robredo @1.57
Scholl @1.50
Double 2 units @2.35
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 5 - SF
So it'll be a Italy vs Spain for a spot in the final.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 4 - QF
Local players easily pushing.
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 3 - R16
Some surprising results yesterday as Brown def. [3]Lorenzi with a double 7-6.
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 2
Rain stopped Volandri - Giannessi, where Volandri was serving while 2-1 down after winning the first set tie-break.
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Genova Challenger
Here's the main draw. http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1763/mds.pdf
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Monday, September 3, 2012
USO - Day 8
Again I've to report some picks went unposted because of lack of time to write motivations.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
USO - Day 6
First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
Thursday, August 30, 2012
USO - Day 4
Nicolas Almagro - Philipp Petzschner: pick Petzschner @5.00 2 units
I fear here is the fan who's speaking.
Two tennis-style facing here: the all-around and vintage tennis of the german, and the baseline top-spinned of the spaniard.
In common there's a solid serve also here for different reason.
The battle will develop on the backhand cross and Almagro's one-handed one could suffer on the long run to lift up Petz's slices. This can affect Almagro in two ways: he'll shift on his left to play the forehand, opening the court so that Petz can play winner with his killer forehand; Almagro can't push his backhand down the line (his best solution) against the weightless balls he'll receive.
Almagro will play almost from the stands so Picasso needs to be mind-plugged to avoid errors above all if he'll be very high on the court risking to find himself too close to the bounce.
Sofia Arvidsson - Ana Ivanovic: pick Arvidsson @4.00 2 units
Too much high this odd, Ana can't be such a favourite against anyone reacently.
Head to head says 4-1 in Ana's favour but most belong to her best period.
Most of my fear goes to Sofia's service, she has the highest ball lift and windy days affect her, there was a bit of wind in this days.
Yaroslava Shvedova - Roberta Vinci: Shvedova @2.25 2 units
Although it was a bit of friendly match between Shvedova and King (they're double partner), Slava showed a great shape.
She got many point on King's second hitting winning returns (77% points won on King's 2nd serve), King and Vinci second serve are not much different.
Also in the rally she showed skills: preferring to lead with deep groundstrokes from still position on the baseline, she also could play on the run.
Sometimes she couldn't find the right distances from the ball and sticked.
Against Vinci could be tricky for her with the italian old-fashioned tennis that could not to give her the pace she need, though I think on the long run the power and fit of Slava could do the difference as her service is harder to break.
Dominika Cibulkova - Bojana Jovanovski: pick Jovanovski @3.75 1 unit
Great come back in the first round for the young serbian against a Barthel that was said was suffering the hot temperature.
She's improving her ranking and also finding spot in the Fed Cup over player like Jankovic and Ivanovic.
She prefers fast surfaces were her heavy balls can give a bad day to many players.
Cibulkova is one of the best returner in the WTA, since her serve can't be fast enough being very short.
Cibu's matches usually are very nervy, she can insult her opponent for the whole match, but Bojana doesn't look to me one of those drama-player, she's regular and doesn't change her plans at the first difficulty.
Vera Dushevina - Sara Errani: pick Dushevina @5.50 1 unit
Errani could lost to anyone who's little motivated and focused to hit an offensive return yet on the first serve.
Just dropping a set against the young spanish girl Muguruza in the first round is an indication of how she's far from her clay performances.
Galina Voskoboeva - Andrea Hlavackova: pick Hlavackova @1.80 2 units
Nearly even odds for them but season results shows an horrible shape for Voskoboeva, an 11/17 score for her.
Hlavacoka, on the contrary, has found some continuty also as single player, not a relevant result as she starts from the qualies in major tournaments, but anyway some good runs like the one on Cincinnati where she lost 6-4 7-6 from an on-fire Kerber on round of 16 (Andrea played the qualies).
I fear here is the fan who's speaking.
Two tennis-style facing here: the all-around and vintage tennis of the german, and the baseline top-spinned of the spaniard.
In common there's a solid serve also here for different reason.
The battle will develop on the backhand cross and Almagro's one-handed one could suffer on the long run to lift up Petz's slices. This can affect Almagro in two ways: he'll shift on his left to play the forehand, opening the court so that Petz can play winner with his killer forehand; Almagro can't push his backhand down the line (his best solution) against the weightless balls he'll receive.
Almagro will play almost from the stands so Picasso needs to be mind-plugged to avoid errors above all if he'll be very high on the court risking to find himself too close to the bounce.
Sofia Arvidsson - Ana Ivanovic: pick Arvidsson @4.00 2 units
Too much high this odd, Ana can't be such a favourite against anyone reacently.
Head to head says 4-1 in Ana's favour but most belong to her best period.
Most of my fear goes to Sofia's service, she has the highest ball lift and windy days affect her, there was a bit of wind in this days.
Yaroslava Shvedova - Roberta Vinci: Shvedova @2.25 2 units
Although it was a bit of friendly match between Shvedova and King (they're double partner), Slava showed a great shape.
She got many point on King's second hitting winning returns (77% points won on King's 2nd serve), King and Vinci second serve are not much different.
Also in the rally she showed skills: preferring to lead with deep groundstrokes from still position on the baseline, she also could play on the run.
Sometimes she couldn't find the right distances from the ball and sticked.
Against Vinci could be tricky for her with the italian old-fashioned tennis that could not to give her the pace she need, though I think on the long run the power and fit of Slava could do the difference as her service is harder to break.
Dominika Cibulkova - Bojana Jovanovski: pick Jovanovski @3.75 1 unit
Great come back in the first round for the young serbian against a Barthel that was said was suffering the hot temperature.
She's improving her ranking and also finding spot in the Fed Cup over player like Jankovic and Ivanovic.
She prefers fast surfaces were her heavy balls can give a bad day to many players.
Cibulkova is one of the best returner in the WTA, since her serve can't be fast enough being very short.
Cibu's matches usually are very nervy, she can insult her opponent for the whole match, but Bojana doesn't look to me one of those drama-player, she's regular and doesn't change her plans at the first difficulty.
Vera Dushevina - Sara Errani: pick Dushevina @5.50 1 unit
Errani could lost to anyone who's little motivated and focused to hit an offensive return yet on the first serve.
Just dropping a set against the young spanish girl Muguruza in the first round is an indication of how she's far from her clay performances.
Galina Voskoboeva - Andrea Hlavackova: pick Hlavackova @1.80 2 units
Nearly even odds for them but season results shows an horrible shape for Voskoboeva, an 11/17 score for her.
Hlavacoka, on the contrary, has found some continuty also as single player, not a relevant result as she starts from the qualies in major tournaments, but anyway some good runs like the one on Cincinnati where she lost 6-4 7-6 from an on-fire Kerber on round of 16 (Andrea played the qualies).
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
USO R1 - Day 2
T Bellucci - P Andujar: pick Andujar @3.50 1 unit
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.
D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.
T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.
B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.
M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).
Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.
-0,5
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.
D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.
T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.
B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.
M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).
Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.
-0,5
Monday, August 27, 2012
USO R1 - Day 1
M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Segovia challenger - Final
A Olivetti - E Donskoy: pick Olivetti @2.50 2 units
Two young talent meating in this final.
First final match at callenger level for french Olivetti, while russian Donskoy already got 4 title and 1 runner-up.
Despite the experience on the russian side and the first time on the french one, I'll pick the value in the odds since Olivetti is serving really well with over 200 kph speed, and match will be played on few points.
And in this kind of match Olivetti has already show attitude, beating two expert locals as Gimeno-Traver (8-6 in third set's tie-break) and Navarro Pastor (double 7-6), also fighting at mental level against many doubtful calls from linemen.
-2
I haven't watch the match, but apart a technical superiority from Donskoy, maybe Olivetti suffered a bit the first final mood in the first set, 6-1 the score. Second set hardly fought with a tie-break win by Donskoy.
Two young talent meating in this final.
First final match at callenger level for french Olivetti, while russian Donskoy already got 4 title and 1 runner-up.
Despite the experience on the russian side and the first time on the french one, I'll pick the value in the odds since Olivetti is serving really well with over 200 kph speed, and match will be played on few points.
And in this kind of match Olivetti has already show attitude, beating two expert locals as Gimeno-Traver (8-6 in third set's tie-break) and Navarro Pastor (double 7-6), also fighting at mental level against many doubtful calls from linemen.
-2
I haven't watch the match, but apart a technical superiority from Donskoy, maybe Olivetti suffered a bit the first final mood in the first set, 6-1 the score. Second set hardly fought with a tie-break win by Donskoy.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
US Open draws
Before checking the market, I gave a look at the draw.
And it was stunning.
Starting from ladies top half:
n.1 Azarenka, then going down there are some good players, and all hard hitter: Goerges, Lisicki, Li Na, Clijsters and defending champions Stosur.
Defending the third round should be easy for Vika, but then she'll have to play "every match as a final" as usually journalist language suggest.
In the other quarter n.3 Sharapova won't face really though player up to the quarter-final where projection put Kvitova.
And getting here, I said: "Um though one for Maria... and..." great sospension and I realized: most of the heavyweight are here, so who's in the bottom half?
Bottom half is an highway for Serena (4) to the final.
Seeded player are lightweight, player without great serve or strokes.
Just to mention some seeded players: Kerber (6), Wozniacki (8), Errani (10), Ivanovic (12).
Semis projection says Serena-Radwanska (2), the lightest of WTA top player.
Obviously market saw it right and Serena can be backed around 2.10 and all the other starting from arond 9 Azarenka.
So not really good odds.
But I found something to back anyway: A.Radwanska @65.
I'm not expecting her to be upset too soon. Jankovic at the third round shouldn't be a great problem, 2-2 the h-2-h, with last two won by Aga, and first two a bit old, when Jankovic was better.
4rt round. Cibulkova or Vinci or maybe Shvedova.
Wide lead in the h-2-h: 4-0 with both Vinci and Cibulkova, 3-1 with Shvedova.
Quarter-final will be though probably against Kerber.
Head to head records are very interesting: Aga leads 3-2 but once Kerber retired (Aga led 6-0 5-3). Last match was a two-set win for Radwanska in Wimbledon. The other are three match on hardcourt, each gone at the third set; 2-1 in Kerber's favour.
Anyway I expect Radwanska to be the dog so have a lay opportunity, before I really lay in case she reaches the semi.
And it was stunning.
Starting from ladies top half:
n.1 Azarenka, then going down there are some good players, and all hard hitter: Goerges, Lisicki, Li Na, Clijsters and defending champions Stosur.
Defending the third round should be easy for Vika, but then she'll have to play "every match as a final" as usually journalist language suggest.
In the other quarter n.3 Sharapova won't face really though player up to the quarter-final where projection put Kvitova.
And getting here, I said: "Um though one for Maria... and..." great sospension and I realized: most of the heavyweight are here, so who's in the bottom half?
Bottom half is an highway for Serena (4) to the final.
Seeded player are lightweight, player without great serve or strokes.
Just to mention some seeded players: Kerber (6), Wozniacki (8), Errani (10), Ivanovic (12).
Semis projection says Serena-Radwanska (2), the lightest of WTA top player.
Obviously market saw it right and Serena can be backed around 2.10 and all the other starting from arond 9 Azarenka.
So not really good odds.
But I found something to back anyway: A.Radwanska @65.
I'm not expecting her to be upset too soon. Jankovic at the third round shouldn't be a great problem, 2-2 the h-2-h, with last two won by Aga, and first two a bit old, when Jankovic was better.
4rt round. Cibulkova or Vinci or maybe Shvedova.
Wide lead in the h-2-h: 4-0 with both Vinci and Cibulkova, 3-1 with Shvedova.
Quarter-final will be though probably against Kerber.
Head to head records are very interesting: Aga leads 3-2 but once Kerber retired (Aga led 6-0 5-3). Last match was a two-set win for Radwanska in Wimbledon. The other are three match on hardcourt, each gone at the third set; 2-1 in Kerber's favour.
Anyway I expect Radwanska to be the dog so have a lay opportunity, before I really lay in case she reaches the semi.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Winston Salem - New Haven QF
S Darcis - T Berdych: pick Darcis @4.6 1 unit
This odds well worth a small try.
Darcis seems on fire, reaching quarterfinal after three matches as underdog.
The hugest, no need to explain, was yesterday against Roddick.
It took two tie-break, and it's another great result give the great serve of Andy.
As I watched couple of game I must say that Darcis isn't a bad player, he uses some variation of rhythm slowing with slice backhand then hitting winners with the forehand.
And though a not great first serve percentage (61%) he conceided, and saved, only one break point.
Talking about precentages the one of Berdych's first serve was horrible: 47%. This to me mean that he's not in agreat shape, above all mentally, and mental skills are his best. If the experienced Roddick didn't manage to find a weak point in Darcis, harder will do it Berdych.
Moreover Darcis leads the head to head 2-0, with a recent 6-4 6-4 at the Olympics.
L Safarova - P Kvitova: pick Safarova @2.70 1 unit
Big surprise that they've never met, officially at least since they belong to he same tennis club and know each other very well.
Petra has had two busy week winning Montreal then losing in semifinal in Cincinnati.
Going deep also this week seems suicidal, given that US Open are next week.
-2
About Darcis - Berdych:
Odds were wrong? Maybe.
The match could be divided into two parts.
Against all the evidences the first part do not coincide with the first set, it was shorter.
Darcis started very well, with a solid serve and a well working plans in his mind: playing sliced backhand possibly crossed to Berdych's backhand, so that he could not accelerate; and from that scenario there were many possible way to win the point: Berdych's unforced, Darcis hitting forehand winner from baseline; one of them approaching the net, ending up with Darcis winning with a volley or passing when the opponent was a the net.
Things worked since the 5-2, with a double break in favour of belgian.
Berdych breaking back to 5-3 could be intended as a drop of tension given by the wide lead.
Darcis won the set on his service but it was just an accident: the plan he drawed was lost and he couldn't find it in the rest of the match, playing as Berdych said "back and back and by the end he was close to the fans, which is the way I need to play with the guys."
This odds well worth a small try.
Darcis seems on fire, reaching quarterfinal after three matches as underdog.
The hugest, no need to explain, was yesterday against Roddick.
It took two tie-break, and it's another great result give the great serve of Andy.
As I watched couple of game I must say that Darcis isn't a bad player, he uses some variation of rhythm slowing with slice backhand then hitting winners with the forehand.
And though a not great first serve percentage (61%) he conceided, and saved, only one break point.
Talking about precentages the one of Berdych's first serve was horrible: 47%. This to me mean that he's not in agreat shape, above all mentally, and mental skills are his best. If the experienced Roddick didn't manage to find a weak point in Darcis, harder will do it Berdych.
Moreover Darcis leads the head to head 2-0, with a recent 6-4 6-4 at the Olympics.
L Safarova - P Kvitova: pick Safarova @2.70 1 unit
Big surprise that they've never met, officially at least since they belong to he same tennis club and know each other very well.
Petra has had two busy week winning Montreal then losing in semifinal in Cincinnati.
Going deep also this week seems suicidal, given that US Open are next week.
-2
About Darcis - Berdych:
Odds were wrong? Maybe.
The match could be divided into two parts.
Against all the evidences the first part do not coincide with the first set, it was shorter.
Darcis started very well, with a solid serve and a well working plans in his mind: playing sliced backhand possibly crossed to Berdych's backhand, so that he could not accelerate; and from that scenario there were many possible way to win the point: Berdych's unforced, Darcis hitting forehand winner from baseline; one of them approaching the net, ending up with Darcis winning with a volley or passing when the opponent was a the net.
Things worked since the 5-2, with a double break in favour of belgian.
Berdych breaking back to 5-3 could be intended as a drop of tension given by the wide lead.
Darcis won the set on his service but it was just an accident: the plan he drawed was lost and he couldn't find it in the rest of the match, playing as Berdych said "back and back and by the end he was close to the fans, which is the way I need to play with the guys."
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Winston Salem R16
For sure I need a little warm up, and I find Gulbis excellent to get back to old habits: happy if he wins, and me with him, hell angry if he loses.
M Granollers - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @2.20 2 units
Last year Gulbis had a tremendous year then had a little sparkle in LA, on US hardcourt.
Here is the same, he started from the qualies, had also a match against Janowicz (lost to him in Wimbledon), then Berlocq and underdog facing Anderson.
Granollers is a herd test, his defensive skills and his weightless hits could easily drive Gulbis mad, but since latvian has won five match in a row it can be said this is "the week" for him.
-2 I haven't watched the match, but I see a sad 1/9 break points won for Ernest.
M Granollers - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @2.20 2 units
Last year Gulbis had a tremendous year then had a little sparkle in LA, on US hardcourt.
Here is the same, he started from the qualies, had also a match against Janowicz (lost to him in Wimbledon), then Berlocq and underdog facing Anderson.
Granollers is a herd test, his defensive skills and his weightless hits could easily drive Gulbis mad, but since latvian has won five match in a row it can be said this is "the week" for him.
-2 I haven't watched the match, but I see a sad 1/9 break points won for Ernest.
Holidays over
So I'll be back soon.
It's a month or so without watching a match and hopefully from tomorrow I'll give a glace to something at Winston Salem.
Usually I hardly follow the US Open.
And things won't get better with the Circus moving to Asia.
Anyway calendar will be filled with other things:
It's a month or so without watching a match and hopefully from tomorrow I'll give a glace to something at Winston Salem.
Usually I hardly follow the US Open.
And things won't get better with the Circus moving to Asia.
Anyway calendar will be filled with other things:
- Challenger Tour
- Italian Serie A
And later as season turn and it gets colder:
- Indoor Season and World Tour Final
- Alpine Skiing World Cup
Thursday, August 2, 2012
OlymPICKs IV
Two days in a row of green allow me try something more.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Novak Djokovic: pick Tsonga @4.32 1 unit
Jo has not a bad head-to-head record against Nole, 6-5 for serbian.
Ok most of Tsonga's wins are a bit old and Nole is younger by 2 years but also recently, at the French Open Tsonga's came close to a win, he wasted even some match points.
Then in the real Wimbledon Jo showed great skill as grass-courter, being weight but even very dynamic, his match were delightful to watch.
Nole seems very far from all this. He's not in 2011, no need to repeat, and he always looks like he's not playing at 100%, he lacks of shape and also I reckon he lacks of will.
Yesterday's first set against Hewitt, was not only a great set by the aussie, but also these lackness that were showing theirself. Then Hewitt 31 years old and hundreds of surgery lowered the tension and even that Djokovic came back for a win.
Today there will be a much different match, balls will be heavier, service games harder to break, a gear shift is needed.
Also the Tsonga +1,5 set looks good but I don't wanto to get too much involved.
I had a thought about Kim to beat Maria, but I'll leave it.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Novak Djokovic: pick Tsonga @4.32 1 unit
Jo has not a bad head-to-head record against Nole, 6-5 for serbian.
Ok most of Tsonga's wins are a bit old and Nole is younger by 2 years but also recently, at the French Open Tsonga's came close to a win, he wasted even some match points.
Then in the real Wimbledon Jo showed great skill as grass-courter, being weight but even very dynamic, his match were delightful to watch.
Nole seems very far from all this. He's not in 2011, no need to repeat, and he always looks like he's not playing at 100%, he lacks of shape and also I reckon he lacks of will.
Yesterday's first set against Hewitt, was not only a great set by the aussie, but also these lackness that were showing theirself. Then Hewitt 31 years old and hundreds of surgery lowered the tension and even that Djokovic came back for a win.
Today there will be a much different match, balls will be heavier, service games harder to break, a gear shift is needed.
Also the Tsonga +1,5 set looks good but I don't wanto to get too much involved.
I had a thought about Kim to beat Maria, but I'll leave it.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
OlymPICKs III and half
The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.
Here's yesterday's:
Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit
Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit
But let's go on.
Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit
Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this.
I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.
He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.
John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units
Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.
Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.
But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup.
David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit
Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.
The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.
This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.
Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit
I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.
Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.
So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units
Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.
I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same.
Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.
My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50
Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units
Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.
Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Monday, July 30, 2012
OlymPICKs II
Two high odds form the 2nd round at the Olympics.
Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.
Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.
-3
Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.
Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.
-3
Friday, July 27, 2012
OlymPICKs
It's a while I'm not posting anything.
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).
First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.
At first sight to me notable odds are:
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).
First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.
At first sight to me notable odds are:
- Nalbandian tb Tipsarevic @2.5 I don't think the 3-0 in the real Wimby is thruthful, El Gordo worth much more on grass. Tipso has had a great couple of weeks (a title and a runner-up) but he also showed great skills to waste break-points.
- Troicki tb Almagro @2.5 Troicki has been one of the worst player so far in this season, collecting tons of 1st and 2nd round (it's a bit of wonder how he's lost few positions in the ranking), a little bright in Wimby reaching R16, while Almagro on grass is just... not on clay, even against Troicki he can't play far behind the baseline.
- Pironkova tb Cibulkova @2.4 Piro has had a bad season but motsly she build it on Wimby, this years her draw was very unlucky, but she has second chance
Also nice: Keothavong @6.5 vs Wozniacki: I'm not saying that Keo is going to win but playing at home, in the Centre Court...
Szavay@3.25 vs Baltacha: Agnes is un ranked she's playing for what? Totally free from pression and all...
Jie Zheng @2.10 vs Petrova with the chinese that took Serena in the third at Wimby
Venus @1.7 vs Errani. Same thing as Almagro for Errani: lack of skill to play on grass, her second serve is something should forbid her to be a top10, Venus will return several winners on it, and she can't hit back everything as she do on clay.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Still on break
I think I won't resume my picks this week, followed a bit past tournaments and still understanding very little.
Usually I don't follow the US hard-court season very much, and this european clay-court tournaments are very odd.
Maybe I'll try something on the Olympics, I had a nice run on grass, but I feel this is something different from usual tours tournament.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
ATP - 17/07
I don't know if it's universally known but there's this statistical rule, one of those unwritten rules that often happen in sports; It's called "Regola di Tommasi" (Tommasi's rules, translated), it's something like this: players who played in a final (winner or runner-up doesn't matter) very often lose the first round in the very next tournament. It's because those players have played a full week, and there's a great amount of mental energy involved, and after the final they relax a bit and lose focus.
Todays picks will follow this:
F Cipolla - M Cilic: pick Cipolla @6.97 1 unit
Huge odds here for Cipolla that has already defeated Cilic once.
N Almagro - T Kamke: pick Kamke @4.79 2 units
Odds may differe since I made the pick yesterday.
Almagro was also complaining about some kind of shoulder injury.
Also Kamke to win the first set will be ok.
Anyway I don't think he will complete the first set, should be something to bet on "one ball" books, which I don't have.
-3 Not worked here
Todays picks will follow this:
F Cipolla - M Cilic: pick Cipolla @6.97 1 unit
Huge odds here for Cipolla that has already defeated Cilic once.
N Almagro - T Kamke: pick Kamke @4.79 2 units
Odds may differe since I made the pick yesterday.
Almagro was also complaining about some kind of shoulder injury.
Also Kamke to win the first set will be ok.
Anyway I don't think he will complete the first set, should be something to bet on "one ball" books, which I don't have.
-3 Not worked here
Monday, July 16, 2012
ATP/WTA 1st round - 16/07
Hamburg ATP 500
M Bachinger - R Haase: pick Bachinger @2.13 2 units
Totally disagree with this odds. Apart from Bundensliga and Boodles challenger (nothing more than friendly) Haase hasn't won a set in last 6 matches. Bachinger, on the other hand, is having a great season so far on clay reaching also QF last week in Umag.
I thought in something more but most of the matches are tomorrow
-2
M Bachinger - R Haase: pick Bachinger @2.13 2 units
Totally disagree with this odds. Apart from Bundensliga and Boodles challenger (nothing more than friendly) Haase hasn't won a set in last 6 matches. Bachinger, on the other hand, is having a great season so far on clay reaching also QF last week in Umag.
I thought in something more but most of the matches are tomorrow
-2
Friday, July 13, 2012
ATP - 13/07
T Robredo - D Ferrer: pick Robredo +5 games @2.11 1 unit
Ferrer is one of those who hardly give their best facing friends, and I think he won't destroy Tommy, who is also on a very hot period. Maybe the +5,5 is better for it cover the 6-4 6-3, but my tendence to play 2/1 odds has prevailed.
A Ramos - G Dimitrov: pick Ramos @2.35 1 unit
I still don't trust Dimitrov at all.
Moreover he's facing Ramos one of those typical clay-courter, defensive at the bone with top-spin, moonball, marathon runner, I don't see Dimitrov having enough patience to play many long rallies.
Can't decide what to do with Zopp-Hajek, Zopp's odds are tempting, but Hajek it's doing very very well.
E Cabeza Candela - Irina Begu: pick Cabeza Candela @2.53 1 unit
Again a spaniard clay-courter, with all the clay-weapon (unwinning strokes, moonballs...), facing an untrustworthy player. Begu can suffer of sudden loss of confidence and loose a match after she's had bunch of match point (some weeks ago lost from Schiavone while 6-1 in third set breaker).
On the other hand ECC did the opposite in her previous match coming back from 1-5 in the first set and winning it at the tie-break.
-3 Two unlucky third sets and a little change of mind about Dimitrov who is finding consistency.
Tennis week over, I'll be back again for the first round on next week's tournaments
-3 Two unlucky third sets and a little change of mind about Dimitrov who is finding consistency.
Tennis week over, I'll be back again for the first round on next week's tournaments
Thursday, July 12, 2012
ATP - 12/07
Since I know me, I know the risk of going in overconfidence being in such a good run so I'll play only one of my ideas for today.
F Verdasco - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @3.20 1 unit
It's not matter of value, it's just that Gulbis is Gulbis. His Wimbledon weeks ago is the perfect example: he can destroy a top 10 (Berdych there) and then lose against Janowicz.
Verdasco even doesn't worth that trust.
Just to say... my other ideas were: Giannessi (at higher odds maybe, vs Gimeno-Traver), Gil (Dimitrov a bit overrated?), Stebe (vs Chardy... ), Cervenak (@5.8 vs Haas), Pavic (vs Kuznetsov both young talented and Pavic playing home), the underdog in Fognini-Dolgopolov if odds goes higher than 2.20.
-1
Again sad that Cervenak and Stebe would have saved me
F Verdasco - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @3.20 1 unit
It's not matter of value, it's just that Gulbis is Gulbis. His Wimbledon weeks ago is the perfect example: he can destroy a top 10 (Berdych there) and then lose against Janowicz.
Verdasco even doesn't worth that trust.
Just to say... my other ideas were: Giannessi (at higher odds maybe, vs Gimeno-Traver), Gil (Dimitrov a bit overrated?), Stebe (vs Chardy... ), Cervenak (@5.8 vs Haas), Pavic (vs Kuznetsov both young talented and Pavic playing home), the underdog in Fognini-Dolgopolov if odds goes higher than 2.20.
-1
Again sad that Cervenak and Stebe would have saved me
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Somewhere in Europe
It's while I'm not posting.
I've preferred enjoy the final of the Championships.
Back on betting. Many tournament, not of big level, the ones where it's more easy to find some Value in odds, moreover there's a change in the surfaces.
Nevertheless I wasn't much inspired.
Today things got better, let's try:
ATP Bastaad
J Hajek - J Nieminen: pick Hajek @2.23 1 unit
Hajek has had a very good year so far. He won a challenger some weeks ago and was runner up in other two, and also reached many semi-final, all on clay.
Jarkko doesn't play on clay since Roland Garros, where he reached 2nd Round for Andreev retired. Before that nothing special from him on this surface, on which he doesn't play his best tennis.
Hajek should have got used to lefties since Jarkko is the third in a row him.
Atp Stuttgart
D Brown - B Paire: pick Brown +1,5 set @2.03 1 unit / Brown +3,5 games @1,97 2 units
Maybe the two picks are not well played but it doesn't matter.
First: this is a very funny match and I wish to watch it, two of the most entertaining platers here.
Brown is a bit of home player, this will cheers him up. He isn't a clay player while Paire is, though Paire is very crazy, he could lose a set 6-0 or 6-1 (that is what I'm expecting him to do) then overturn everything.
For the moment this is enough.
I like also Begu @2.3 vs Dominguez-Lino and Bachinger @2.8 vs Klizan but both don't convince me too much
Ah... I was very disappointed by Knapp yesterday: many double fault, and trouble on movement. She hits very hard and deep but doesn't find much winners.
+4.20 Sad thing that also Bachinger and Begu won and I didn't played them
I've preferred enjoy the final of the Championships.
Back on betting. Many tournament, not of big level, the ones where it's more easy to find some Value in odds, moreover there's a change in the surfaces.
Nevertheless I wasn't much inspired.
Today things got better, let's try:
ATP Bastaad
J Hajek - J Nieminen: pick Hajek @2.23 1 unit
Hajek has had a very good year so far. He won a challenger some weeks ago and was runner up in other two, and also reached many semi-final, all on clay.
Jarkko doesn't play on clay since Roland Garros, where he reached 2nd Round for Andreev retired. Before that nothing special from him on this surface, on which he doesn't play his best tennis.
Hajek should have got used to lefties since Jarkko is the third in a row him.
Atp Stuttgart
D Brown - B Paire: pick Brown +1,5 set @2.03 1 unit / Brown +3,5 games @1,97 2 units
Maybe the two picks are not well played but it doesn't matter.
First: this is a very funny match and I wish to watch it, two of the most entertaining platers here.
Brown is a bit of home player, this will cheers him up. He isn't a clay player while Paire is, though Paire is very crazy, he could lose a set 6-0 or 6-1 (that is what I'm expecting him to do) then overturn everything.
For the moment this is enough.
I like also Begu @2.3 vs Dominguez-Lino and Bachinger @2.8 vs Klizan but both don't convince me too much
Ah... I was very disappointed by Knapp yesterday: many double fault, and trouble on movement. She hits very hard and deep but doesn't find much winners.
+4.20 Sad thing that also Bachinger and Begu won and I didn't played them
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Wimby Ladies' SF
In the end I made up my mind and here a pick also for today:
A Radwanska - A Kerber: pick Radwanska @2.42 2 units
I don't know what's behind the odds, but it's a bit of a surprise to find the one better ranked as underdog. Above all in a Wimbledon semi, where also people who don't know anything about tennis are tempted to try something; and majority of them go for the dog.
Few days ago I read some comments on an article, now I can't find, about a previus round.
These run like how Kerber, on her rise this year, changed her game. And the writer of the comments was shocked of how this changement was fast, he/she says that this has stared in US Open 2011. The changement took Kerber to be a defensive player, still bit atypical.
Radwanska has defeated Kerber only after that USO, when this Kerber transformation started.
I think that Serena is the true favourite in the other semi, still too powerfull for Vika. But it's a no bet for me.
Aga won. +2.84
A Radwanska - A Kerber: pick Radwanska @2.42 2 units
I don't know what's behind the odds, but it's a bit of a surprise to find the one better ranked as underdog. Above all in a Wimbledon semi, where also people who don't know anything about tennis are tempted to try something; and majority of them go for the dog.
Few days ago I read some comments on an article, now I can't find, about a previus round.
These run like how Kerber, on her rise this year, changed her game. And the writer of the comments was shocked of how this changement was fast, he/she says that this has stared in US Open 2011. The changement took Kerber to be a defensive player, still bit atypical.
Radwanska has defeated Kerber only after that USO, when this Kerber transformation started.
I think that Serena is the true favourite in the other semi, still too powerfull for Vika. But it's a no bet for me.
Aga won. +2.84
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Zahlavova S. - Putintseva Live
Since I can't stand Ferrer to beat Murray and I found odds on this match bit crazy( 1.90 - 1.90) , I'll watch it.
Both at the 2nd round winning 2-0 in the 1st.
Barbora n. 62 WTA defated young french C. Garcia.
Putintseva ('95) n.127 WTA defeating spaniard Pous Tio. This girl on may won 100.000$ ITF Cagnes-sur-mer starting from as qualified.
P. holds serve.
In the 2nd game the real play starts and P shows some offensive skills attacking from the centre with the forehand, and varying with slice backhand and drop shots.
B. holds thogh 2 bps.
1-1
BZS goes to 15-40 with 3 net approach.
P. takes the game to advantages with a big serve to the body and a passing with BSZ at the net.
BSZ breaks after another bp was saved.
2-1
Barbora holds easily and luckily with two balls stopped by the net, maybe it's not much thight.
3-1
Some problems on the serve for P. She double fault twice in a row.
Again 15-40 and again P saves playing on the backhand side from wich BZS is trying to escape.
BZS breaks again avoiding to play from baseline
4-1
P. leads the game from baseline with heavy strokes from both sides but BZS both defeds well and changes the rhytm with dropshot and serve and volley.
5-1
BZS keeps playing very smartly not giving still point to P. and getting others bps.
BZS exploit P.'s second serve hitting long-line return and following it to the net.
6-1
Untill odds on BZS to break the serve still over @2 I'll pick it
Match restart on the same way of the previous set: P. hit cross backhand, BZS doesn't offer still point and also plays serveandvolley.
Very long first game on BZS serve with many chances for P to break. There also a very long rally, after that P. bend on her knees exausted.
Video shut and also market got closed for a little while
1-0*
When P.'s serving a second from the right is always the same scheme: return down the line followed to the net by BZS.
1*-1
BZS holds to 30 playing with the feet inside the court and risking on P.'s deep strokes
2-1*
P. looks tired on her legs. Her forehand swings sometimes goes rounder.
Rallies got shorter with P trying to hit winners earlier.
P's serve is broken on a double fault
3*-1
BZS easily holds. To the record a lovely forehand dropshot from a meter behind the line by BZS.
4-1*
BZS up 0-40 then three unreturned serves 40-40.
BZS breaks after 2 gp for P.
5*-1
P. won't loose too soon and breaks for the first time. Few mistakes from BZS.
5-2*
BZS breaks to win the match.
Smart match from BZS.
Nice talented this young P. Offensive baseliner, able to play onehand backhand backspin as defending stroke, though she's doublehanded. Also played good volleys though very rarely. Bad second serve.
Nice livebetting for me with all those BZS' breaks.
Both at the 2nd round winning 2-0 in the 1st.
Barbora n. 62 WTA defated young french C. Garcia.
Putintseva ('95) n.127 WTA defeating spaniard Pous Tio. This girl on may won 100.000$ ITF Cagnes-sur-mer starting from as qualified.
P. holds serve.
In the 2nd game the real play starts and P shows some offensive skills attacking from the centre with the forehand, and varying with slice backhand and drop shots.
B. holds thogh 2 bps.
1-1
BZS goes to 15-40 with 3 net approach.
P. takes the game to advantages with a big serve to the body and a passing with BSZ at the net.
BSZ breaks after another bp was saved.
2-1
Barbora holds easily and luckily with two balls stopped by the net, maybe it's not much thight.
3-1
Some problems on the serve for P. She double fault twice in a row.
Again 15-40 and again P saves playing on the backhand side from wich BZS is trying to escape.
BZS breaks again avoiding to play from baseline
4-1
P. leads the game from baseline with heavy strokes from both sides but BZS both defeds well and changes the rhytm with dropshot and serve and volley.
5-1
BZS keeps playing very smartly not giving still point to P. and getting others bps.
BZS exploit P.'s second serve hitting long-line return and following it to the net.
6-1
Untill odds on BZS to break the serve still over @2 I'll pick it
Match restart on the same way of the previous set: P. hit cross backhand, BZS doesn't offer still point and also plays serveandvolley.
Very long first game on BZS serve with many chances for P to break. There also a very long rally, after that P. bend on her knees exausted.
Video shut and also market got closed for a little while
1-0*
When P.'s serving a second from the right is always the same scheme: return down the line followed to the net by BZS.
1*-1
BZS holds to 30 playing with the feet inside the court and risking on P.'s deep strokes
2-1*
P. looks tired on her legs. Her forehand swings sometimes goes rounder.
Rallies got shorter with P trying to hit winners earlier.
P's serve is broken on a double fault
3*-1
BZS easily holds. To the record a lovely forehand dropshot from a meter behind the line by BZS.
4-1*
BZS up 0-40 then three unreturned serves 40-40.
BZS breaks after 2 gp for P.
5*-1
P. won't loose too soon and breaks for the first time. Few mistakes from BZS.
5-2*
BZS breaks to win the match.
Smart match from BZS.
Nice talented this young P. Offensive baseliner, able to play onehand backhand backspin as defending stroke, though she's doublehanded. Also played good volleys though very rarely. Bad second serve.
Nice livebetting for me with all those BZS' breaks.
Wimby Gentlemen's QF and other
No picks in Wimbledon for today.
I can't see any underdog upset his opponent.
The 13-0 head to head record in Federer - Youzhny clearly explain the mood with of Youzhny when he faces the swiss. There's to check Roger's back trouble, just in case...
Djokovic is just to much for Mayer. It's diffucult to say if Mayer is doing his best or not when he's on court. It's his attitude. Looks like his rival phoned him the day before because he was searching someone to play tennis, Mayer politely accept but his body language express the wish to be somewhere else.
Tsonga - Kolschreiber. I say Jo, to much powerfull and balanced. But the german seems a bit underrated expecially on grass, at higher odds (over @4 - @4.5) I'd have a thought.
Ferrer - Murray. They've never met on grass. The head to head only shows which is who's favourite surface, (with the equalize in hard-indoor). Also here there's a big attitude fight, Ferrer is one to respect for his combativeness (bit less for defensive tennis).
Murray... is one you can't like. And I say this being someone who potentially like Murray. Potentially. Because he lack of everything and seems irrimediably gone the time when he could change, he could place the piece to complete the puzzle. Of the fab4 only Federer was technically better than Murray, but he hasn't complete his own. He has remained 'potential'.
I have two picks of lower tournament.
From Biella ITF
Brianti - Burnett: pick Burnett @2.10 2 units
Young Burnett ( '92) is growing up pretty well.
Her groundstrokes are really heavy. She uses a great serve to build up the point.
Brianti is one of those great waste of talent, unluckily her hand isn't supported by her athletism.
The backhand is the best stroke for both, but Brianti's one-handed looks too much gently toward Burnett's double-handed.
Some challenger with an impossible name.
J Zopp - S Bolelli: pick Bolelli @2.00 2 units
Bolleli, for those who don't know, could be called the italian Gulbis.
It's hard to understand how one who was a top 30 who scared better ranked can't stay still in top 100.
Zopp is talented is in a pretty good period but he isn't on Bolelli level if the italian little mind.
Pick's all about Bolelli that always deserve a try as underdog.
Both mine won in two set +4.2
I can't see any underdog upset his opponent.
The 13-0 head to head record in Federer - Youzhny clearly explain the mood with of Youzhny when he faces the swiss. There's to check Roger's back trouble, just in case...
Djokovic is just to much for Mayer. It's diffucult to say if Mayer is doing his best or not when he's on court. It's his attitude. Looks like his rival phoned him the day before because he was searching someone to play tennis, Mayer politely accept but his body language express the wish to be somewhere else.
Tsonga - Kolschreiber. I say Jo, to much powerfull and balanced. But the german seems a bit underrated expecially on grass, at higher odds (over @4 - @4.5) I'd have a thought.
Ferrer - Murray. They've never met on grass. The head to head only shows which is who's favourite surface, (with the equalize in hard-indoor). Also here there's a big attitude fight, Ferrer is one to respect for his combativeness (bit less for defensive tennis).
Murray... is one you can't like. And I say this being someone who potentially like Murray. Potentially. Because he lack of everything and seems irrimediably gone the time when he could change, he could place the piece to complete the puzzle. Of the fab4 only Federer was technically better than Murray, but he hasn't complete his own. He has remained 'potential'.
I have two picks of lower tournament.
From Biella ITF
Brianti - Burnett: pick Burnett @2.10 2 units
Young Burnett ( '92) is growing up pretty well.
Her groundstrokes are really heavy. She uses a great serve to build up the point.
Brianti is one of those great waste of talent, unluckily her hand isn't supported by her athletism.
The backhand is the best stroke for both, but Brianti's one-handed looks too much gently toward Burnett's double-handed.
Some challenger with an impossible name.
J Zopp - S Bolelli: pick Bolelli @2.00 2 units
Bolleli, for those who don't know, could be called the italian Gulbis.
It's hard to understand how one who was a top 30 who scared better ranked can't stay still in top 100.
Zopp is talented is in a pretty good period but he isn't on Bolelli level if the italian little mind.
Pick's all about Bolelli that always deserve a try as underdog.
Both mine won in two set +4.2
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Wimby Ladies' QF/ Gentlemen's R16
S Williams - P Kvitova: pick Kvitova @2.42 1 unit
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit
Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.
I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.
All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit
Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.
I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.
All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Wimby QF
I haven't found yet the pictures I was looking for. It's about yesterday's Spain-Italy, a very funny moment: there's Casillas waving to Balotelli where he should aim, after the striker missed the gol with a shot hundreds metres high and wide (obviously this is followed by well spelled (!) 'vaffanculo').
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).
R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.
J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.
M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.
A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.
Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live
Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39
Anyway... I also haven't done my homework: I promised my self I'd have done a review of the first week of Wimby, watching some highlights and studing some stats, but I didn't. So no review and no preview, just some picks.
I had a good sunday laying the draw on betfair, lot of fun from it, I'll write down some lines about it one day (there's enough about it on the web yet).
R Gasquet - F Mayer: pick Mayer @4.57 1 unit
Such a odd is very offensive toward Flo. What has he done to deserve it? He's survived to Tursunov, not a newbe on grass; Petzschner, without going to far with memory he has been finalist in Den Bosh just a week ago; Janowicz the one who defeated the one who defated Berdych. It's a medium high level run from Mayer.
Both Flo and Richie can play tennis, have varius stroke. And the one who shows the most variety is Mayer: it's in his play, he can hit a deep forehand then go short with a drop or slower with a slice, he plays backspin backhand though the two-handed. He's supported by a great serve.
J Tsonga - M Fish: pick Fish @5.05 1 unit
I think Fish is a bit underrated.
He won a hard match against an home player, Ward, at the fifth, with all the crowd... then won the slam boy Goffin as underdog.
So i think Fish has had his chance to go back home, he hasn't, so he should fight and he knows Jo has some bad moments.
M Sharapova - S Lisicki: pick Lisicki +5,5 @1.91 2 units
Last year in semifinal was 6-4 6-3 for Maria. So the line was winning.
Lisicki came off some hard matches maybe playing not on her standards for grass.
Hope Sabine will serve like she can and Maria doesn't find confidece in the return: the russian doesn't know interlocutory hit and forcing on Sabine first serve is suicidal.
A Radwanska - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi +6 @1.93 2 units
Also Giorgi as winner @6 is not that bad.
Camila is a hard-hitter, has a good serve, I don't think it's going to be a 6-2 6-2 or something near it.
Other matches:
Apart from Federer, Djokovic and Murray every match deserve a try beacuse they are very close:
Baker's odd is very tempting, as the Shvedova's one; Azarenka and even Kvitova could suffer of the empiness they occasinally shows. Ferrer is on fire. Youzhny and Istomin can do anything, a sane Yuozhny should easily win, but... Vinci Paszek could be a funny match to watch and to pick something live
Picks on Mayer and Lisicki are won +4.39
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