-7 units this week following Genova Challenger, though got some ideas about the style of some players to consider as an investement for the future.
I don't know what I'll follow next week.
I think a bit of the WTA of Tashkent and the Banja Luka and Todi Challenger.
A little double of favourites Robredo who I'm not expecting to fail against Montanes (solid 8-0 lead in the head to head) and a young girl from the WTA Quebec qualies:
Robredo @1.57
Scholl @1.50
Double 2 units @2.35
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 5 - SF
So it'll be a Italy vs Spain for a spot in the final.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 4 - QF
Local players easily pushing.
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 3 - R16
Some surprising results yesterday as Brown def. [3]Lorenzi with a double 7-6.
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 2
Rain stopped Volandri - Giannessi, where Volandri was serving while 2-1 down after winning the first set tie-break.
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Genova Challenger
Here's the main draw. http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1763/mds.pdf
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Monday, September 3, 2012
USO - Day 8
Again I've to report some picks went unposted because of lack of time to write motivations.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
USO - Day 6
First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
Thursday, August 30, 2012
USO - Day 4
Nicolas Almagro - Philipp Petzschner: pick Petzschner @5.00 2 units
I fear here is the fan who's speaking.
Two tennis-style facing here: the all-around and vintage tennis of the german, and the baseline top-spinned of the spaniard.
In common there's a solid serve also here for different reason.
The battle will develop on the backhand cross and Almagro's one-handed one could suffer on the long run to lift up Petz's slices. This can affect Almagro in two ways: he'll shift on his left to play the forehand, opening the court so that Petz can play winner with his killer forehand; Almagro can't push his backhand down the line (his best solution) against the weightless balls he'll receive.
Almagro will play almost from the stands so Picasso needs to be mind-plugged to avoid errors above all if he'll be very high on the court risking to find himself too close to the bounce.
Sofia Arvidsson - Ana Ivanovic: pick Arvidsson @4.00 2 units
Too much high this odd, Ana can't be such a favourite against anyone reacently.
Head to head says 4-1 in Ana's favour but most belong to her best period.
Most of my fear goes to Sofia's service, she has the highest ball lift and windy days affect her, there was a bit of wind in this days.
Yaroslava Shvedova - Roberta Vinci: Shvedova @2.25 2 units
Although it was a bit of friendly match between Shvedova and King (they're double partner), Slava showed a great shape.
She got many point on King's second hitting winning returns (77% points won on King's 2nd serve), King and Vinci second serve are not much different.
Also in the rally she showed skills: preferring to lead with deep groundstrokes from still position on the baseline, she also could play on the run.
Sometimes she couldn't find the right distances from the ball and sticked.
Against Vinci could be tricky for her with the italian old-fashioned tennis that could not to give her the pace she need, though I think on the long run the power and fit of Slava could do the difference as her service is harder to break.
Dominika Cibulkova - Bojana Jovanovski: pick Jovanovski @3.75 1 unit
Great come back in the first round for the young serbian against a Barthel that was said was suffering the hot temperature.
She's improving her ranking and also finding spot in the Fed Cup over player like Jankovic and Ivanovic.
She prefers fast surfaces were her heavy balls can give a bad day to many players.
Cibulkova is one of the best returner in the WTA, since her serve can't be fast enough being very short.
Cibu's matches usually are very nervy, she can insult her opponent for the whole match, but Bojana doesn't look to me one of those drama-player, she's regular and doesn't change her plans at the first difficulty.
Vera Dushevina - Sara Errani: pick Dushevina @5.50 1 unit
Errani could lost to anyone who's little motivated and focused to hit an offensive return yet on the first serve.
Just dropping a set against the young spanish girl Muguruza in the first round is an indication of how she's far from her clay performances.
Galina Voskoboeva - Andrea Hlavackova: pick Hlavackova @1.80 2 units
Nearly even odds for them but season results shows an horrible shape for Voskoboeva, an 11/17 score for her.
Hlavacoka, on the contrary, has found some continuty also as single player, not a relevant result as she starts from the qualies in major tournaments, but anyway some good runs like the one on Cincinnati where she lost 6-4 7-6 from an on-fire Kerber on round of 16 (Andrea played the qualies).
I fear here is the fan who's speaking.
Two tennis-style facing here: the all-around and vintage tennis of the german, and the baseline top-spinned of the spaniard.
In common there's a solid serve also here for different reason.
The battle will develop on the backhand cross and Almagro's one-handed one could suffer on the long run to lift up Petz's slices. This can affect Almagro in two ways: he'll shift on his left to play the forehand, opening the court so that Petz can play winner with his killer forehand; Almagro can't push his backhand down the line (his best solution) against the weightless balls he'll receive.
Almagro will play almost from the stands so Picasso needs to be mind-plugged to avoid errors above all if he'll be very high on the court risking to find himself too close to the bounce.
Sofia Arvidsson - Ana Ivanovic: pick Arvidsson @4.00 2 units
Too much high this odd, Ana can't be such a favourite against anyone reacently.
Head to head says 4-1 in Ana's favour but most belong to her best period.
Most of my fear goes to Sofia's service, she has the highest ball lift and windy days affect her, there was a bit of wind in this days.
Yaroslava Shvedova - Roberta Vinci: Shvedova @2.25 2 units
Although it was a bit of friendly match between Shvedova and King (they're double partner), Slava showed a great shape.
She got many point on King's second hitting winning returns (77% points won on King's 2nd serve), King and Vinci second serve are not much different.
Also in the rally she showed skills: preferring to lead with deep groundstrokes from still position on the baseline, she also could play on the run.
Sometimes she couldn't find the right distances from the ball and sticked.
Against Vinci could be tricky for her with the italian old-fashioned tennis that could not to give her the pace she need, though I think on the long run the power and fit of Slava could do the difference as her service is harder to break.
Dominika Cibulkova - Bojana Jovanovski: pick Jovanovski @3.75 1 unit
Great come back in the first round for the young serbian against a Barthel that was said was suffering the hot temperature.
She's improving her ranking and also finding spot in the Fed Cup over player like Jankovic and Ivanovic.
She prefers fast surfaces were her heavy balls can give a bad day to many players.
Cibulkova is one of the best returner in the WTA, since her serve can't be fast enough being very short.
Cibu's matches usually are very nervy, she can insult her opponent for the whole match, but Bojana doesn't look to me one of those drama-player, she's regular and doesn't change her plans at the first difficulty.
Vera Dushevina - Sara Errani: pick Dushevina @5.50 1 unit
Errani could lost to anyone who's little motivated and focused to hit an offensive return yet on the first serve.
Just dropping a set against the young spanish girl Muguruza in the first round is an indication of how she's far from her clay performances.
Galina Voskoboeva - Andrea Hlavackova: pick Hlavackova @1.80 2 units
Nearly even odds for them but season results shows an horrible shape for Voskoboeva, an 11/17 score for her.
Hlavacoka, on the contrary, has found some continuty also as single player, not a relevant result as she starts from the qualies in major tournaments, but anyway some good runs like the one on Cincinnati where she lost 6-4 7-6 from an on-fire Kerber on round of 16 (Andrea played the qualies).
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
USO R1 - Day 2
T Bellucci - P Andujar: pick Andujar @3.50 1 unit
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.
D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.
T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.
B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.
M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).
Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.
-0,5
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.
D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.
T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.
B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.
M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).
Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.
-0,5
Monday, August 27, 2012
USO R1 - Day 1
M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan
D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)
R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.
I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)
0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Segovia challenger - Final
A Olivetti - E Donskoy: pick Olivetti @2.50 2 units
Two young talent meating in this final.
First final match at callenger level for french Olivetti, while russian Donskoy already got 4 title and 1 runner-up.
Despite the experience on the russian side and the first time on the french one, I'll pick the value in the odds since Olivetti is serving really well with over 200 kph speed, and match will be played on few points.
And in this kind of match Olivetti has already show attitude, beating two expert locals as Gimeno-Traver (8-6 in third set's tie-break) and Navarro Pastor (double 7-6), also fighting at mental level against many doubtful calls from linemen.
-2
I haven't watch the match, but apart a technical superiority from Donskoy, maybe Olivetti suffered a bit the first final mood in the first set, 6-1 the score. Second set hardly fought with a tie-break win by Donskoy.
Two young talent meating in this final.
First final match at callenger level for french Olivetti, while russian Donskoy already got 4 title and 1 runner-up.
Despite the experience on the russian side and the first time on the french one, I'll pick the value in the odds since Olivetti is serving really well with over 200 kph speed, and match will be played on few points.
And in this kind of match Olivetti has already show attitude, beating two expert locals as Gimeno-Traver (8-6 in third set's tie-break) and Navarro Pastor (double 7-6), also fighting at mental level against many doubtful calls from linemen.
-2
I haven't watch the match, but apart a technical superiority from Donskoy, maybe Olivetti suffered a bit the first final mood in the first set, 6-1 the score. Second set hardly fought with a tie-break win by Donskoy.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
US Open draws
Before checking the market, I gave a look at the draw.
And it was stunning.
Starting from ladies top half:
n.1 Azarenka, then going down there are some good players, and all hard hitter: Goerges, Lisicki, Li Na, Clijsters and defending champions Stosur.
Defending the third round should be easy for Vika, but then she'll have to play "every match as a final" as usually journalist language suggest.
In the other quarter n.3 Sharapova won't face really though player up to the quarter-final where projection put Kvitova.
And getting here, I said: "Um though one for Maria... and..." great sospension and I realized: most of the heavyweight are here, so who's in the bottom half?
Bottom half is an highway for Serena (4) to the final.
Seeded player are lightweight, player without great serve or strokes.
Just to mention some seeded players: Kerber (6), Wozniacki (8), Errani (10), Ivanovic (12).
Semis projection says Serena-Radwanska (2), the lightest of WTA top player.
Obviously market saw it right and Serena can be backed around 2.10 and all the other starting from arond 9 Azarenka.
So not really good odds.
But I found something to back anyway: A.Radwanska @65.
I'm not expecting her to be upset too soon. Jankovic at the third round shouldn't be a great problem, 2-2 the h-2-h, with last two won by Aga, and first two a bit old, when Jankovic was better.
4rt round. Cibulkova or Vinci or maybe Shvedova.
Wide lead in the h-2-h: 4-0 with both Vinci and Cibulkova, 3-1 with Shvedova.
Quarter-final will be though probably against Kerber.
Head to head records are very interesting: Aga leads 3-2 but once Kerber retired (Aga led 6-0 5-3). Last match was a two-set win for Radwanska in Wimbledon. The other are three match on hardcourt, each gone at the third set; 2-1 in Kerber's favour.
Anyway I expect Radwanska to be the dog so have a lay opportunity, before I really lay in case she reaches the semi.
And it was stunning.
Starting from ladies top half:
n.1 Azarenka, then going down there are some good players, and all hard hitter: Goerges, Lisicki, Li Na, Clijsters and defending champions Stosur.
Defending the third round should be easy for Vika, but then she'll have to play "every match as a final" as usually journalist language suggest.
In the other quarter n.3 Sharapova won't face really though player up to the quarter-final where projection put Kvitova.
And getting here, I said: "Um though one for Maria... and..." great sospension and I realized: most of the heavyweight are here, so who's in the bottom half?
Bottom half is an highway for Serena (4) to the final.
Seeded player are lightweight, player without great serve or strokes.
Just to mention some seeded players: Kerber (6), Wozniacki (8), Errani (10), Ivanovic (12).
Semis projection says Serena-Radwanska (2), the lightest of WTA top player.
Obviously market saw it right and Serena can be backed around 2.10 and all the other starting from arond 9 Azarenka.
So not really good odds.
But I found something to back anyway: A.Radwanska @65.
I'm not expecting her to be upset too soon. Jankovic at the third round shouldn't be a great problem, 2-2 the h-2-h, with last two won by Aga, and first two a bit old, when Jankovic was better.
4rt round. Cibulkova or Vinci or maybe Shvedova.
Wide lead in the h-2-h: 4-0 with both Vinci and Cibulkova, 3-1 with Shvedova.
Quarter-final will be though probably against Kerber.
Head to head records are very interesting: Aga leads 3-2 but once Kerber retired (Aga led 6-0 5-3). Last match was a two-set win for Radwanska in Wimbledon. The other are three match on hardcourt, each gone at the third set; 2-1 in Kerber's favour.
Anyway I expect Radwanska to be the dog so have a lay opportunity, before I really lay in case she reaches the semi.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Winston Salem - New Haven QF
S Darcis - T Berdych: pick Darcis @4.6 1 unit
This odds well worth a small try.
Darcis seems on fire, reaching quarterfinal after three matches as underdog.
The hugest, no need to explain, was yesterday against Roddick.
It took two tie-break, and it's another great result give the great serve of Andy.
As I watched couple of game I must say that Darcis isn't a bad player, he uses some variation of rhythm slowing with slice backhand then hitting winners with the forehand.
And though a not great first serve percentage (61%) he conceided, and saved, only one break point.
Talking about precentages the one of Berdych's first serve was horrible: 47%. This to me mean that he's not in agreat shape, above all mentally, and mental skills are his best. If the experienced Roddick didn't manage to find a weak point in Darcis, harder will do it Berdych.
Moreover Darcis leads the head to head 2-0, with a recent 6-4 6-4 at the Olympics.
L Safarova - P Kvitova: pick Safarova @2.70 1 unit
Big surprise that they've never met, officially at least since they belong to he same tennis club and know each other very well.
Petra has had two busy week winning Montreal then losing in semifinal in Cincinnati.
Going deep also this week seems suicidal, given that US Open are next week.
-2
About Darcis - Berdych:
Odds were wrong? Maybe.
The match could be divided into two parts.
Against all the evidences the first part do not coincide with the first set, it was shorter.
Darcis started very well, with a solid serve and a well working plans in his mind: playing sliced backhand possibly crossed to Berdych's backhand, so that he could not accelerate; and from that scenario there were many possible way to win the point: Berdych's unforced, Darcis hitting forehand winner from baseline; one of them approaching the net, ending up with Darcis winning with a volley or passing when the opponent was a the net.
Things worked since the 5-2, with a double break in favour of belgian.
Berdych breaking back to 5-3 could be intended as a drop of tension given by the wide lead.
Darcis won the set on his service but it was just an accident: the plan he drawed was lost and he couldn't find it in the rest of the match, playing as Berdych said "back and back and by the end he was close to the fans, which is the way I need to play with the guys."
This odds well worth a small try.
Darcis seems on fire, reaching quarterfinal after three matches as underdog.
The hugest, no need to explain, was yesterday against Roddick.
It took two tie-break, and it's another great result give the great serve of Andy.
As I watched couple of game I must say that Darcis isn't a bad player, he uses some variation of rhythm slowing with slice backhand then hitting winners with the forehand.
And though a not great first serve percentage (61%) he conceided, and saved, only one break point.
Talking about precentages the one of Berdych's first serve was horrible: 47%. This to me mean that he's not in agreat shape, above all mentally, and mental skills are his best. If the experienced Roddick didn't manage to find a weak point in Darcis, harder will do it Berdych.
Moreover Darcis leads the head to head 2-0, with a recent 6-4 6-4 at the Olympics.
L Safarova - P Kvitova: pick Safarova @2.70 1 unit
Big surprise that they've never met, officially at least since they belong to he same tennis club and know each other very well.
Petra has had two busy week winning Montreal then losing in semifinal in Cincinnati.
Going deep also this week seems suicidal, given that US Open are next week.
-2
About Darcis - Berdych:
Odds were wrong? Maybe.
The match could be divided into two parts.
Against all the evidences the first part do not coincide with the first set, it was shorter.
Darcis started very well, with a solid serve and a well working plans in his mind: playing sliced backhand possibly crossed to Berdych's backhand, so that he could not accelerate; and from that scenario there were many possible way to win the point: Berdych's unforced, Darcis hitting forehand winner from baseline; one of them approaching the net, ending up with Darcis winning with a volley or passing when the opponent was a the net.
Things worked since the 5-2, with a double break in favour of belgian.
Berdych breaking back to 5-3 could be intended as a drop of tension given by the wide lead.
Darcis won the set on his service but it was just an accident: the plan he drawed was lost and he couldn't find it in the rest of the match, playing as Berdych said "back and back and by the end he was close to the fans, which is the way I need to play with the guys."
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Winston Salem R16
For sure I need a little warm up, and I find Gulbis excellent to get back to old habits: happy if he wins, and me with him, hell angry if he loses.
M Granollers - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @2.20 2 units
Last year Gulbis had a tremendous year then had a little sparkle in LA, on US hardcourt.
Here is the same, he started from the qualies, had also a match against Janowicz (lost to him in Wimbledon), then Berlocq and underdog facing Anderson.
Granollers is a herd test, his defensive skills and his weightless hits could easily drive Gulbis mad, but since latvian has won five match in a row it can be said this is "the week" for him.
-2 I haven't watched the match, but I see a sad 1/9 break points won for Ernest.
M Granollers - E Gulbis: pick Gulbis @2.20 2 units
Last year Gulbis had a tremendous year then had a little sparkle in LA, on US hardcourt.
Here is the same, he started from the qualies, had also a match against Janowicz (lost to him in Wimbledon), then Berlocq and underdog facing Anderson.
Granollers is a herd test, his defensive skills and his weightless hits could easily drive Gulbis mad, but since latvian has won five match in a row it can be said this is "the week" for him.
-2 I haven't watched the match, but I see a sad 1/9 break points won for Ernest.
Holidays over
So I'll be back soon.
It's a month or so without watching a match and hopefully from tomorrow I'll give a glace to something at Winston Salem.
Usually I hardly follow the US Open.
And things won't get better with the Circus moving to Asia.
Anyway calendar will be filled with other things:
It's a month or so without watching a match and hopefully from tomorrow I'll give a glace to something at Winston Salem.
Usually I hardly follow the US Open.
And things won't get better with the Circus moving to Asia.
Anyway calendar will be filled with other things:
- Challenger Tour
- Italian Serie A
And later as season turn and it gets colder:
- Indoor Season and World Tour Final
- Alpine Skiing World Cup
Thursday, August 2, 2012
OlymPICKs IV
Two days in a row of green allow me try something more.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Novak Djokovic: pick Tsonga @4.32 1 unit
Jo has not a bad head-to-head record against Nole, 6-5 for serbian.
Ok most of Tsonga's wins are a bit old and Nole is younger by 2 years but also recently, at the French Open Tsonga's came close to a win, he wasted even some match points.
Then in the real Wimbledon Jo showed great skill as grass-courter, being weight but even very dynamic, his match were delightful to watch.
Nole seems very far from all this. He's not in 2011, no need to repeat, and he always looks like he's not playing at 100%, he lacks of shape and also I reckon he lacks of will.
Yesterday's first set against Hewitt, was not only a great set by the aussie, but also these lackness that were showing theirself. Then Hewitt 31 years old and hundreds of surgery lowered the tension and even that Djokovic came back for a win.
Today there will be a much different match, balls will be heavier, service games harder to break, a gear shift is needed.
Also the Tsonga +1,5 set looks good but I don't wanto to get too much involved.
I had a thought about Kim to beat Maria, but I'll leave it.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Novak Djokovic: pick Tsonga @4.32 1 unit
Jo has not a bad head-to-head record against Nole, 6-5 for serbian.
Ok most of Tsonga's wins are a bit old and Nole is younger by 2 years but also recently, at the French Open Tsonga's came close to a win, he wasted even some match points.
Then in the real Wimbledon Jo showed great skill as grass-courter, being weight but even very dynamic, his match were delightful to watch.
Nole seems very far from all this. He's not in 2011, no need to repeat, and he always looks like he's not playing at 100%, he lacks of shape and also I reckon he lacks of will.
Yesterday's first set against Hewitt, was not only a great set by the aussie, but also these lackness that were showing theirself. Then Hewitt 31 years old and hundreds of surgery lowered the tension and even that Djokovic came back for a win.
Today there will be a much different match, balls will be heavier, service games harder to break, a gear shift is needed.
Also the Tsonga +1,5 set looks good but I don't wanto to get too much involved.
I had a thought about Kim to beat Maria, but I'll leave it.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
OlymPICKs III and half
The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.
Here's yesterday's:
Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit
Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit
But let's go on.
Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit
Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this.
I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.
He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.
John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units
Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.
Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.
But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup.
David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit
Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.
The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.
This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.
Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit
I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.
Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.
So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units
Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.
I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same.
Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.
My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50
Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units
Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.
Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83
Monday, July 30, 2012
OlymPICKs II
Two high odds form the 2nd round at the Olympics.
Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.
Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.
-3
Alex Bogomolov (RUS) - Nicolas Almagro: pick Bogomolov @5.31 1 unit
Again betting against Almagro.
Troicki has been just too much him self to win in the previous round
Bogomolov is not having a great season but he could be a very tricky player.
Maybe playing for something different from usual circuit events will push him to play better.
Philipp Petzschner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Petzschner @3.56 2 units
At such odds I'll pick "Picasso" even facing on of the Fab4.
He is the grass player. Lack of results are due to his lunacy.
If there were a special rank for breakpoints waster, Tipsarevic will be on the top or thereabout, and surely he's leading this rank for july.
From a technical aspect Petz is superior to Tipso (Petz is superior to many, to be truth), but it's about the way he uses his strokes: his sliced backhand won't give tempo to Tipso, and he needs tempo to play. Petz can play slices for long in a single point, so it'll Tipso that will escape from the point thing that usually took unforced more than to winner.
The great service, the many aces, will take another amount of points.
Maybe also the fact that a 2 on 3 sets match will help him, his focus in particular.
-3
Friday, July 27, 2012
OlymPICKs
It's a while I'm not posting anything.
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).
First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.
At first sight to me notable odds are:
Frankly I found very odd this 250-500 ATP on clay, as yesterday's Klizan-Bolelli (someone knew it).
First: I don't think most players will give their best, even if the Wimbledon venue should be an incentive.
At first sight to me notable odds are:
- Nalbandian tb Tipsarevic @2.5 I don't think the 3-0 in the real Wimby is thruthful, El Gordo worth much more on grass. Tipso has had a great couple of weeks (a title and a runner-up) but he also showed great skills to waste break-points.
- Troicki tb Almagro @2.5 Troicki has been one of the worst player so far in this season, collecting tons of 1st and 2nd round (it's a bit of wonder how he's lost few positions in the ranking), a little bright in Wimby reaching R16, while Almagro on grass is just... not on clay, even against Troicki he can't play far behind the baseline.
- Pironkova tb Cibulkova @2.4 Piro has had a bad season but motsly she build it on Wimby, this years her draw was very unlucky, but she has second chance
Also nice: Keothavong @6.5 vs Wozniacki: I'm not saying that Keo is going to win but playing at home, in the Centre Court...
Szavay@3.25 vs Baltacha: Agnes is un ranked she's playing for what? Totally free from pression and all...
Jie Zheng @2.10 vs Petrova with the chinese that took Serena in the third at Wimby
Venus @1.7 vs Errani. Same thing as Almagro for Errani: lack of skill to play on grass, her second serve is something should forbid her to be a top10, Venus will return several winners on it, and she can't hit back everything as she do on clay.
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