Happily ever after

A big weekend has passed. It's been last World Cup weekend before Schladming's World Championships.
The biggest stage in men's calendar, the real "classic", the Grand Slam of alpine skiing.
And so did also women' stage, in the home country of the undisputed leader of this season.
There won't be mass suicides. Local heroes saved many lifes in extremis.

Doesn't matter what media say, no one will ever change a 1st place in Kitzbuehel with a World Championship or an Olympic gold medal.
Same importance to the race is given by Austria, as a nation - alpine skiing is their national sport, if England, Italy, Spain etc... choke a football world cup the manager is saked and there's a big scandal and all the fuss, if Austria Ski Team choke in Kitz, it's the same.

Friday
Svindal from Norway wins the Super-G, ahead of Mayer a young austrian and Innerhofer, Italy and downhill winner just the week befor in Wengen.
Svindal little reduce the gap from Hirscher in the Overall Standing and secures his leading in the Super-G Standing.
Along with the domination in the time trial during the week Svindal is bookies big favourite for the downhill.
My thinking is that "the viking" actually suffers some kind of pressure in these big races, like he said in his blog after Wengen:

Seems like there is something about Wengen. I really want to get a good result here, but cant seem to make that happen.

He's never won in both, nor made the podium, in the Downhill.

Saturday
Ladies are in Maribor, and there's a big crowd and also the President, all cheering the World Cup leader Tina Maze, from Slovenia.
Giant-Slalom is her favourite discipline, and she's mastering it this season: starting the season with four victories in a row and then a 3rd and a 2nd place in last two.
Snow condition and the easy slope didn't help, plus american and Vonn's coach setting the course for the second run, silenced the crowd.
Lindsey Vonn overcame Tina Maze by only .08s. Vonn
Anna Fenninger, winner in Semmering, made 3rd place.
In the disappointment fog was little noticed that Maze has won the Giant-Slalom Cup

But what the whole alpine skiing world was waiting for was the Downhill on the Streif, Kitzbuehel.

Svindal, as said, was the big bookies's favourite, and with reason, but he also seems to feel pressure in big and classic events. Raichelt and Kroell were considered his biggest opponents, while Innerhofer had higher odds for his penalty (started as #45).
Max Franz starting with bib #4 made a run near flawlessness and his leading survived to many starts.
When also some top racers from the second group as Jansrud and Theaux went behind, austrian crowd was pinching for the wildest dream was about to come true; Franz's run definitely was an excellent one.
First group.Top skiers starting.
#16 austrian Kroell is behind.
#17 frenchmen top speed recorder Clarey was .33 ahead at last intermediate but lands in the nets at the Traverse, just before the Hahnenkamm Schuss and the red finish line.
#18 Svindal has to run a come back, and reduce his gap little by little, but eventually is behind.
But when the worst seems passed...
#20 (#19 was Innerhofer) Paris plays a bad trick silencing the crowd
#21 Guay follows closely, and Austria and Franz's dreams become nightmares and there's the risk to neither gain a podium.

Downhill podium:
1)Paris (ita),
2)Guay (can),
3) Reichelt (aut)

#22 austrian Reichel pulls many sighs of relief reaching 3r place.
Paris, Guay and Reichelt stands in leader corner waiting for Innerhofer's run, but it was already darkened and there were worse visibility and contrast, ended 20th (actually 20th place only after Sporn was disqualified for some technical irregularity in his skis).


   




Sunday
Both sex racing slalom in this day.
And in both attendances that pretending feeling that everything was good the day before, the idol has done good anyway.

Ladies, Maribor:
Bookies and common thinking was that 17yo Shiffrin in last appearences has showed that sort of superiority that among the men belongs to Hirscher. She can run riskless but aggressively.
Hansdotter follows but not closely.
Again Maze takes the lead in the first run, while Shiffrin skied badly far from her fluidity.
Hansdotter is just behind, and then Zettel who took advantage of her #1 bib and Zuzulova #3.

This time there's no trick in the second run, Maze showed her superiority and from the starting gate it was clear that she would run offensively, not doing math. Eventually she recorded the best time also in the second run.
Hansdotter were consistence enough, but again she must postpone her first career win.
3rd place to Zettel.
Maze litterally screamed slovenian anthem, she's also a good singer.

Men, Kitzbuehel:
Hirscher again was bib #1. His odds were unplayable, and also on paper only contender looked Neureuther.
His run1 was just scholastic, with the semplicity of the gesture only he can show while being aggressive.
So big surprise when italian Gross, #3, got the lead and his run resisted to #4, the german Neureuther.
#5 Mario Matt, Austria, loses the plot and goes out... at this point some axes came out of nowhere to be sharpened.
Some numbers later also Byggmark, from Sweden, #8, passed Hirscher and much later on italian Razzoli, #18, made a double italian lead going behind Gross just of .07s. Hirscher was ousted from podium.

What's new in Hirscher compared to last season in the consistecy and, what makes him Slalom's no.1 is his second run.
Though the big pressure, his run is flawless, there are no major corrections in his line, no mistakes, and though this he's fast, and records the best time of the run.
He's leading before Neureuther and Kostelic; the croatian has also won the Combined.
Three racer still to start.
Byggmark, makes little mistakes here and there.
Razzoli and Gross, fail the same gate, both arrive with too much speed on the edge of an hump and the following jump makes them land off the optimal line, struggling to pass the next gate and losing speed for the final section.


Everyone in the podium wears a big smile.
And crowd can go nut, for an austrian finally winning in Kitzbuehel.

27/01 Slaloms - Kitzbuehel and Maribor

Sorry, no picks for the Downhill, I just wanted to watch and enjoy it, mind free...

Ladies first:
h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 1 unit @1.80 Won +0.8
Couldn't resist, I really like Gagnon, she's aggressive and deserve top placement, also true that she does too many mistakes.
Zahrobska isn't on high levels, due a surgery in the summer.
Slope is easy and Gagnon shouldn't have many troubles.
Gagnon starting with #9 and Zahrobska 19.

h2h Pietilae-Holmner - Mielzynski - pick Mielzynski 2 units @2.25 Void 0
Mielzynski is having a great season, while Pietilae-Holmner struggles to find her best form.
Also some numbers of difference in the starting list that should advantage Mielzynski: 8 & 15.

Men:
h2h Pinturault - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @1.90 Won +1.8
Myhrer isn't in a good period, coming from two DNF in a row, he also hasn't got great placements on this slope, 6th as his best not too good for a top like him.
On the other hand Pinturault struggles to put together two runs, because he's aggressive and falls easily in mistake.
This time though he'll ski differently because there's also the Combined Cup for him, changing style is never easy.

h2h Pranger - Grange - pick Grange 2 units @2.00 Lost -2
Pranger in bad shape so far.
Grange in raising form, best time in the second run of Wengen and a minor FIS Slalom won in mid-week.

+0.6

Great shame for Grange who was doing very well, had only +0.02s gap from Gross, leader of the first run; the french is in big shape.

I think that I'm overrating Gagnon, maybe her real level is from 10th to 20th, lucky that Zahrobska has been very poor today.

25/01 Men' Super-G - Kitzbuehel

Opening day at the Grand Slam of the Alpine skiing.
A technical Super-G, but also with some flat section, anyway some key turns will do the difference.
Sadly weather conditions don't look the best, powder and some low clouds... let's hope in a regular race.

h2h Baumann - Fill - pick Baumann 3 units @1.68 Lost -3
Fill's got bib #2 so will start "blind" without seeing any other racer and so the course, and also with powder still on it.
Baumann is #28, and he's in raising shape.

h2h Innerhofer - Streitberger -pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.95 Won +1.9
h2h Clarey - Streiberger - pick Clarey 2 units @2.42 Won +2.84
Two picks against Streitberger and his low starting bib, #5 and the powder still on course whene he'll take the start.
Innerhofer is #8 and Clarey #26.
Both also seems in better shape than Streiberger, who might be overrated for two podiums here in the past but last race was not last year but two yeas ago and his fit is much worse than then.

+1.74

Man down

Aksel Lund Svindal in the safety nets after the crash out
 Source: Alexis Boichard/Agence Zoom/Getty Images Europe

Some important and unexpected results from Wengen's weekend.

Man down no.1
Greater echos will come from the Downhill for the 0 in the point tab near the name of Svindal.
Svindal crashed just after the Hundschopf, going backward with the bust and being unable to put pressure on his skis to face the next turn.
Also for the norvegian champion would have been difficult to overtake Innerhofer who's recorded a run close to the perfection, and beated the austrian duo Kroell by 0.30s and Reichelt by 0.76s.
The shape of this two austrian seems to be growing while we're approaching Kitzbuehel and the World Campionships
Key point remains Svindal's crash that could be a blow to the World Cup now that Hirscher leads with a solid margin of 188 points.
Anyway Svindal has more races in his calendar.
For the norvegian there are: 3 Super-Gs, 4 Downhills, 3 Giant-Slaloms and 1 Combined.
While Hirscher has got: 3 Giant-Slaloms, 3 Slaloms and 1 Combined.

Man down no.2
Hirscher, World Cup leader and defender and Slalom Cup leader, after three consecutive Slalom victories has to bow to Neureuther.
Hirscher not winning is kind of a great news, we were used to his "calculated risk", his racing at 80% but still too much for anyone.
Neureuther won on one of the most technical slopes also to made history, winning again on a course where also his father won (father-son double also in Kitzbuhel and Garmisch) .
Could be sensed that a win for Neureuther wasn't too far from happening, he was costantly in top positions and seems to be at his peak, avoiding cheap mistakes that often had stopped him in past seasons.
Kostelic completes the podium, confirming that January is "his" month and he's just reached the peak of the form for this season and from now on there will be one more competitor for top positions.

Man down no.3
With too many injuries to obstacle the training and shape and the raising of younger talents in the Slalom I think that the only reasonble target for Kostelic was the Combined Cup.
The croatian also got former italian downhill racer Kristian Ghedina in his staff to improve in Downhill.
It wasn't enough.
Pinturault won the combined with an aggressive slalom run, easily covering the 0.02s gap between his and Kostelic's downhill run, and increasing it to a final 1.05s.
For the frenchman this is the third career victory, all three in different disciplines, and he still hasn't got a victory in his favourite one, the Giant-Slalom: won a City Event, a Slalom and now the Super Combined.
Little celebration for a devasted Swiss team that with its emblematic athlet, both for being the biggest name and for being devasted as well, as Janka jumps on the lowest step podium.

Last mention to frencheman Clarey who went down to a top speed of 161.9km/h, for a new speed record.

Men' Slalom - Wengen

h2h Kristoffersen - Grange - pick Grange 2 units @2.39 Void 0
Picking the experienced french who's now some races in his legs after recovering from an injury.
He also had some good results in the past on this slope, while the young norvegian has never raced here.

h2h Yuasa - Larsson - pick Larsson 3 units @2.10 Won +3.3
This slalom slope is very various and technical with some hard part.
Yuasa is very aggressive but most of the times he's also faulty, and it's not a surprise that he's finished only one slalom in past seven years here.
Larsson is good enough to make top 20 and easily beat the japanese.

+3.3
Kristtofersen dind't start.
Yuasa as expected didn't finish, not qualifying for the second run, Larsson, 9th, good enuogh to beat him as well.

18/01 Men's Super-Combined - Wengen

The long weekend in Wengen opens with a Super-Combined event, which is made by a downhill and only one run of slalom.
After the downhill the start list of the slalom is made from dh top 30 reversed (first start 30th placed of the dh, then 29th... down to 1st placed, after this also athletes out of top30 take the start, a win from these is much unlikely to happen)
It's the first of only two Combined in this season's calendar, next one (last one) is next weekend in Kitzbuhel.
Only one run of slalom makes those who prefer downhill big favored anyway...

h2h Svindal - Ligety - pick Ligety 1 unit @3.28 Lost -1
Big opportunity for Svindal to get some important points for the World Cup as current leader Hirscher is not racing in this event.
Anyway Ligety can suffer little damages in the dowhill and take the start in the slalom with a good number (from 15-20 I think) and make a good run.
While Svindal, who's not a slolom specialist, will take the start with one of the last number and run on a ruined slope and to take care of scoring points he'll probably go down very carefully

h2h Marsaglia - Innerhoffer - pick Marsaglia 1 unit @3.01 Lost -1
Small stake on the young Marsaglia, who's started his career as specialist of the combined.
Recently he's focused more on speed events like Downhill and Super-G reducing the gap between him and Innerhoffer.

h2h Raich - Jansrud - pick Raich 2 units @2.62 Won +3.24
Too bad odds are much more high now.
Anyway I think Combined is the only event where Raich can hope in some big results. He hardly finishes out of the top 10.
Jansrud is a great downhiller but lacks in slalom, I hope he'll use this event like an additional training for the true Dowhill race of saturday

h2h Innerhofer - Theaux - pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.75 Won +1.5
Odd is right, tough head to head, I prefer Innerhofer that maybe overall is better in both downhill and slalom.

h2h Jansrud - Pinturault - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.70 Won +2.1
Pinturault it's the best slalom specialist racing this one.
He's also decent enough in speed disciplines, and I think his team is working on him to make him compete for the Cup in the future, so combined is a good starting point and test to see his attitudes.

h2h Paris - Puchner - pick Paris 2 units @1.62 Won +1.24
I don't know how's Puchner in slalom, I think not good like most of downhill racer.
Paris is quite good in Combined, great in downhill and decent enough in slalom

+6.08
Bit lucky for Jansrud lost a ski while he was doing a good slalom run, he was close to beat Raich.
Decent Slalom also from Paris.
Very bad Svindal who's lost the little slalol-skills he had years ago.
Pinturault is too strong in slalom also for Kostelic by now.

15/01 Ladies Slalom - Flachau

One of the most important and spectacular stages for the ladies.
Here there's also the biggest money prize but only for top ten like in every other stage but Zagreb where there was prize for the top thirty. (Link to the money prize list)

h2h Holdener - Gagnon - pick Gagnon 3 units @2.02 Lost -3
Gagnon is a better slalomist although her aggressivity takes her to many mistakes and a lot of inconsistent results.

h2h Duerr - Moelgg - pick Duerr 2 units @1.80 Won +1.6
Both are having a bad season but Moelgg's one is far worse also because she's having physical problems.

Found this:

"Le condizioni delle nostre atlete più esperte non sono delle migliori - afferma Plancker -la Curtoni nel corso dell'allenamento di rifinitura a Pozza di Fassa ha inforcato una porta prendendo una frustata nella zona lombosacrale che non le ha fatto certo bene; la Moelgg non riesce logicamente ad allenarsi come vorrebbe"

What Plancker, italian coach, is saying is that Moelgg can't train properly, while Curtoni got a little injury during the training.
So I'll add 2 more units on Duerr @1.73 Won +1.46
and
h2h Geiger - Curtoni - pick Geiger 3 units @1.80 Lost -3
Geiger maybe is a bit worse than Curtoni, but she's consistent enough. She should make better than an injured Curtoni.

-2.94

12/01 Ladies's Downhill - St.Anton

Last time there's been a race here was six years ago, very few racer are still in the "circus".
From interviews it seems that this slope is really hard, very technical.

Today's time trial was cancelled so there's been only one, where Lara Gut won, but missining some gates.
Time trial aren't really a good proof as racer don't go down 100%, someone skips gates, somene tries only some section.
Anyway Lara Gut seems very pumped, and she's better on technical slopes than on flat ones.
So I'll try her to podium.
Gut to podium 2 units @2.50

h2h Kaufmann-Abderhalden - Rolland - pick Kaufmann-Abderhalden 2 units @2.93
Although the swiss with the long name isn't really impressing, this is a huge odd.
Rolland is doing quite bad and she's one of those atlethes who prefer flat slope, while she's very bad on track with more turns.

h2h Merighetti - Gisin - pick Gisin 2 units @2.55
Merighetti is similar to Rolland, she find difficulties with turns, above all rightward for an injury.
Gisin is a preatty technical racer.

h2h Cook - Weirather - pick Cook 1 unit @2.56
Little stake against Weirather, who had an injury recently and with less training in the legs might suffer this hard slope.
Cook has had a great season so far with two 2nd places in Lake Louise, but the two slopes are very different

12/01 Men's Giant Slalom - Adelboden - pre-draw

Usual look at the odds offered before the bib's draw and the starting list.
In evidence the h2hs including skiers who aren't in the same group of merit for the draw. Underlined the name whose odds I think is going to lower. Anyway odds not offer too much as always, only that Reichelt around the even is temptive, but he's doing very bad so better to skip.

Here the picks:
h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.61
One of the head to head with the red circle.
Pinturault is a better Giantist, although Neureuther has had some good results in recent Giant-Slaloms.
There's also a big difference in the start list: Pinturault will be in the first seven gropu, while Neureuther is 20th in the start list.

h2h Fanara - Dopfer - pick Fanara 2 units @1.66
Again a red circled h2h.
Fanara is in the 1 to 7 group, Dopfer in the 8 to 15 one.
So here difference in smaller, and also results's difference is smaller, though I think Fanara is slightly better.

h2h Haugen - Eisath - pick Haugen 2 units @1.71
Not huge difference in this, Haugen is 28th, Eisath is ot of the top30, 31.
Haugen is doing much better and improving his ranking: he was out of the top30 at the beginning of the season.
Haugen has always won this h2h in previus Giant-Slaloms.

h2h Jansrud - Raich - pick Raich 2 units @1.96
Not a marked one as theiy're in the same group.
Both had a bad season in Giant-Slalom.
But I dare say for different reason: Jansrud has problem in turning where there's a short distance between the gates, that's probably becuse of the new radius of the skis.
Raich... I don't know... it could be his age, and recent injuries, but perhaps it's just something about the physical preparation the Austrian team made, as there are bad reasults in the whole austrian team, and the preparation has set them to have results for the World Championships, later this season.
Anyway Raich has a good feeling with this slope, 2nd place last here, and three victory in the past, he's never finished worse then 7th place since 2005.

Men' Slalom - Zagreb - the odds 2

 Actually the experiment failed. The movements have been very little. They're taking very little risks or they're either stubborn in their odds-making.

Men' Slalom - 06/01 Zagreb

I'll try again to take a look at the odds and forecast movements before the draft of the starting list.
In evidence the head to head of racer not in the same group of the WCSL. Unfortunately this time the odds to low are all of the favourite in the h2h.
Here the WCSL.
Remember from 1 to 7 draw bib from 1 to 7, then draw from 8 to 15, then from 16 on starting bib is the same of the WCSL position

Men' Slalom - Zagreb 06/01

h2h Hirscher - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @2.50 Lost -2
To me between this two is 50-50, maybe 60-40 in Hirscher's favour, so this is a good odd.
Both won in here in the past two years and in general this slope suite to the swedish team due to some flat sections.
I also think that now that Hirscher is closer to Svindall in the overall standing he's going to slow down a little and take less risks to complete the race and gain points.

h2h Yuasa - Hargin - pick Hargin 6 units @1.83 Won +4.98
Many reasons for this pick, so a preatty heavy stake.
Hargin will start with a better number: and in men's race the slope will be more ruined than in ladies's one, Yuasa can't be aggressive as he usually is.
Hargin made 3rd place two years ago, and made 7th place in two other occasions, as said before this slope suite to the swedish team.
Yuasa's 3rd place in last SL in Madonna di Campiglio has been a one off, an hat-trick Yuasa makes under some conditions of the slope and in night races, like that one and Schlamding, which are very similar.
Hargin can easily beat Yuasa as the japanese is very faulty and apart from very few races doesn't often break the top 20.

h2h Valencic - Kristoffensen - pick Kristoffensen 1 unit @2.15 Won +1.15
Big difference in the starting bib in Valencic's favour, 17 and 32.
The young norvegian though always start with similar bib. He is doing well also in European Cup while the same can't be said for Valencic who's doing average, with no sign of improvement.

h2h Byggmark - Kostelic - pick Kostelic 1 unit @2.10 Won +1.1
Byggmark will start with the n.1, meaning the slope will e in perfect condition, Kostelic is n.4 so not much behind.
Kostelic is in a bad shape and his knee hurt, though his non-aggressive style could be useful on this kind of snow, that has even got wet by rain.

h2h Neureuther - Pinturault - pick Neureuther 2 units @1.76 Won +1.52
Here starting bib in Neureuther's favour, 6 vs 14.
The german is in great shape with 2nd places in last two Slaloms and the win in the City Event.
Pinturault although winner in Val d'Isere, in some strange conditions, hasn't done anything else that good.

+6.75