Montecarlo - QF - friday

Fognini ousted Berdych, and from a well paid price and I was on him, also let it go covering the red but not equalizing the greens. A pretty profitable one.
I'm not shocked by the other upsets: Murray by Wawrinka and Del Potro by Nieminen (I said Nieminen   was great against Raonic, and I read his defence worked also against the Argentinian).

Like yestarday, I'm going to be here only for the first match, and part of the second if the first is quick enough. Oh, no! Second match is Dimitrov - Nadal, I'd rather skip it.

Anyway I couldn't ask for a better match at 10:30 than Wawrinka - Tsonga.
Wawrinka slight favourite (1.9 to 2.1), as he beated Murray and also because is the better claycourter.
With those premises I would have expected odds to be much shorter on him so it little puzzles me at the moment.
The match could be a dramatic one, though, with momentum swinging from side to side and both suffering of sudden blackouts.
As a proof of this: all their previous meeting went up to the deciding set, Tsonga leads 2-1 and they are 1-1 on clay, both match on clay took place at the French Open.
Strange thing is that they've only met in France (the non-clay match was in Metz, indoor; actually they also record an exhibition match, in Paris, on clay, and Tsonga won in straight) with crowd supporting Tsonga, but thing is going to happen again today and if Stan is the one looking in better shape and confidence, Tsonga will have an entire stadium cheering him, and he loves playing for the crowd.

Montecarlo - round of 16 - thursday

Things worked for the most part of the day, yesterday. But I can't be happy.
Again, just one trade going wrong and the day was nearly fucked up.

The one going wrong was Almagro - Melzer, and that was stupid as I thought Almagro price was too short. And in fact I was on Melzer. But then Almagro didn't look so tired, and he played a good opening game of second set, and so I thought Melzer was done (his game was very risky, many serve and volleys...), I backed Almagro when an all green was possible as well.... later Melzer took the break and instead of reducing the loss, as usual, I took more of it. Melzer won and all the profits from the morning were almost erased.
Before this moment of madness I:

• had an all green in Berdych - Granollers, Berdych had a slow start but took the set, after Granollers also failed to serve the set out. 
• had a nice profit from Nieminen - Raonic. Watching this match wasn't planned but due to the all green in Berdych/Granollers I switched on this just at the beginning of the third set. Nieminen was playing really well his movements and speed were outstanding and he was returning almost everything, even though it's not easy to break Raonic serve. The Finnish won in the tiebreak.
• Backed Fognini but didn't watch the match, so the bet was left running.

Gulbis/Monaco luckily was a dramatic match and I made a good profit of it.

Today only morning matches for me, so one/one and half trade.

I find both Berdych/Fognini and Tsonga/Melzer interesting.

The first one possibly will have the same development of yesterday; Berdych having a slow start; moreover Fognini seems in a decent shape and on clay can be a tough one for Berdych.

Both Melzer and Tsonga play aggressive tennis, and anything can happen. Clay is the worst surface for the frenchmen and 1.22 is a bit short.

Somewhere in Europe

It's while I'm not posting.
I've preferred enjoy the final of the Championships.

Back on betting. Many tournament, not of big level, the ones where it's more easy to find some Value in odds, moreover there's a change in the surfaces.
Nevertheless I wasn't much inspired.
Today things got better, let's try:

ATP Bastaad
J Hajek - J Nieminen: pick Hajek @2.23 1 unit
Hajek has had a very good year so far. He won a challenger some weeks ago and was runner up in other two, and also reached many semi-final, all on clay.
Jarkko doesn't play on clay since Roland Garros, where he reached 2nd Round for Andreev retired. Before that nothing special from him on this surface, on which he doesn't play his best tennis.
Hajek should have got used to lefties since Jarkko is the third in a row him.

Atp Stuttgart
D Brown - B Paire: pick Brown +1,5 set @2.03 1 unit / Brown +3,5 games @1,97 2 units
Maybe the two picks are not well played but it doesn't matter.
First: this is a very funny match and I wish to watch it, two of the most entertaining platers here.
Brown is a bit of home player, this will cheers him up. He isn't a clay player while Paire is, though Paire is very crazy, he could lose a set 6-0 or 6-1 (that is what I'm expecting him to do) then overturn everything.

For the moment this is enough.
I like also Begu @2.3 vs Dominguez-Lino and Bachinger @2.8 vs Klizan but both don't convince me too much

Ah... I was very disappointed by Knapp yesterday: many double fault, and trouble on movement. She hits very hard and deep but doesn't find much winners.

+4.20 Sad thing that also Bachinger and Begu won and I didn't played them