So two 500 tournaments this week.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.
China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.
Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.
Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Week 41 - WTA/ATP picks
Busy week to come with two ATP 500 and the second WTA major in a row.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
WTA Beijing:
Draw.
After the surprising title for Petrova in Tokyo again all the top players in, apart from Serena.
First round byes went to Tokyo semifinalists (Stosur, Kerber, Radwanska, Petrova) so even Azarenka #1 of the seed and #2 Sharapova have to play the first round.
#1 Azarenka, still in doubtful conditions, got an easy draw: no seeded player at the third round as Kanepi withdrew, then Ivanovic or Errani at the QF greater task in the SF as she could face Stosur or Kvitova; My feeling is that players won't bother too much, and at odds under 3.5 to the title I'd lay Vika.
#2 Sharapova looked very bad in Tokyo, a third round against a smart player as Kirilenko might be very tricky, though also MaKiri has been suffering some injuries; same for defending players like Kerber or Wozniacki that she might face in the QF and even in the SF meaning A. Radawanska. Keeping the ball in play is a good game against last appeared Sharapova.
Early upset alarm for Na Li, very faulty last match, facing a smart player as Schiavone... first meeting after 2011 final at Roland Garros; and Safarova, who might have a bad day facing Niculescu's funny sliced forehand (neat 6-0 6-1 win for Niculescu in their only previous meeting).
... And I'm going to pick this three: back Schiavone @5.7: Na Li was too faulty against Wozniacki in Tokyo and Schiavone is a smart player that bases her game on her opposite weak points
Lay Safarova @1.22: cheaper because Niculescu lost last 6 consecutive matches, I still think her sliced for hand might drive Lucie mad, the czech - I think it's kind of czech school - has powerful flat strokes but she has also the tendency to enter an "unforced error tunnel" hitting more and more, and this is easier when the balls that comes toward her weightless, flying almost vertically after the bounce, and she had really to force the winner.
Also a small back Wickmayer @2.66 : can't ignore the 3-0 head to head against Peng. Both very negative recently but Peng seems really to suffer hard hitters.
ATP draws next days.
But still something for today's finals.
Back Gasquet @2.04: a 5-1 lead in the head to head over Simon deserves lower odds. Gasquet showed alternative moments in which he played far back the baseline, beyond the 'Bangkok' sign on the floor, losing, and moments in which he stepped closer to the baseline starting to recover from the damage he previously did.
These two players have their own style, and the 5-1 h2h says Simon has many difficulties with his game, made of long rallies waiting the right stroke from the opponent to use it and turnaround the inertia of the rally, maybe that is due to the back ward position from where Gasquet plays.
Also leaning for a Back Monaco @2.18: here odds may be influenced by Bennetteau defeating Ferrer... well what I think is: Ferrer had to lose and final wasn't that good, top players compulsory have to play some 250 so final and title were more points meaning more points to defend next year,so Ferrer coul skip this next season.
Moreover Ferrer makes a lot of physical training and yesterday he looked like he was into or had just finished a preparation for something to come: his legs didn't work as good as usual coming to the ball later, sometimes not even running for it.
Bennetteau was just the lucky guy who had the honour to beat 'the beast'.
Monaco played a dramatic match against Nishikori. The japanes looked injuried diring the first set, but Monaco can't handle him and a wide lead, so capitulated in the second and started badly also the third before a great come back from 5-2.
Monaco as I said is a solid player that is able of many strokes, a bit unsteady on his nerves though.
After a long blank period, in last match, he managed some great stuff his strokes were much harder and he changement surprised Nishikori.
The court, not a fast one, allows him to play like he's used to when on clay the baseline solidity should give hard thought to Bennetteau.
The frenchman has never won a title though this is his sixth final.
Odds on Bennetteau dropped though, I'll see what to do live.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Tokyo WTA 1R
One lone bet as there will be few first round for the ATP
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.
There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.
Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Week 40 loading
Finally back and in full capacity.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.
Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.
Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.
Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned
At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).
The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.
So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.
Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.
Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).
Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.
Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:
M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.
Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.
-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
ATP St. Petersbourg
2 pick from this tournament... I still have PC problem and I won't be able to see any match.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
M. Youzhny (-1.5 Sets) - V. Pospisil ( 1.5 Sets): Youzhny (-1.5) sets 3 units @1.55
I can't see anything but a 2-0 win for the russian.
Pospisil is just back from Canada where he played the Davis Cup, so maybe also a bit of jet-leg.
+1.65
7-6(4) 6-1 with more sufference than expected, since Pospisil broke back in the first, I haven't watched that though.
I was on a double in Metz: Herbert/Olivetti v Butorac/Peers.
The rapidity of the court makes it difficult to break the serve although the french pair would have done much worse. Olivetti looked much more a double player and his bomb-serve makes the most of the task, Herbert was the weak link, looking like a single player borrowed: broken in the first set and mini-broken in the tie-break, points that mead the difference.
The two though where not sincronized on the court, sometimes not calling the ball each other, or interfering - couple of times Herbert intercepted when he didn't, and didn't intercept when needed.
The US/Aussie double were much more a team greater skill at the net and never suffering when serving.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Week 39 loading
Back with some ATP and WTA.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Ladies moving deeper in Asia, after Tashkent there will be two tournaments on the hard outdoor.
Korea Open, in Seul. Draw
Guangzhou International Women's Open. Draw
Little Indoor break for the ATP with two 250 tournaments before going to Asia
Moselle Open, Metz. Draw
St.Petersbourg Open. Draw
And an important challenger in Szczecin, Poland for claycourt nostalgic. Draw
Korea Open:
Some interesting name as Caroline Wozniacki, no more a top 10, who leads the seeding getting the #1 and Maria Kirilenko as #2 playing here.
This is a very open field with some of the bomb-server as #5 Goerges and #4 Petrova, but also open to some unseeded surprises such as Paszek and 2011 finalist and winner Voskoboeva and Martinez-Sanchez, or Giorgi and Hercog that hava to upset #6 Lepchenko and #8 Makarova at the first round.
Very hard to say who's favourite here, I don't trust Wozniacki, Kirilenko seems strong and is having a great season, but she can lose suddenly, even though she's looked solid in previous matches.
Guangzhou:
Bartoli is #1 as she's now 10 in WTA, and the wide gap between her and the #2 seed Zheng (23 WTA) makes the french clear favored to the title.
Surface's slight differences should suit to some Tashkent's upsets like Niculescu, Cornet and Urszula Radwanska, here the court should be slower and with higher bounces and the defensive game of these three should work better.
Moselle Open:
Decent quality in this.
Tsonga #1 (also 2011 winner) wide favored and without great problem up to the final: #6 Nieminen in his quarter and #3 Granollers (back from the Davis Cup on clay) or #8 Davidenko in the semi.
More interesting the bottom half, and in particular the bottom quarter, where #7 Monfils will make his come back after almost 5 months, Rochus to handle at the first round is a great test, 3-3 the head to head. In the same quarter there's #2 Kohlschreiber, and what should be a must-to-see match: Paire-Malisse.
St.Petersbourg:
Low quality in this, though the #1 Youzhny is not one who inspires blind trust so many possibilities for some young who are doing a great season and improving their ranking like Klizan, Zopp, or even Istomin (who would have thought it? he's #2) or (I'd love it) Petzschner.
Today, R1 in Moselle Open:
Albano Olivetti - James Blake: Olivetti 3 units @2.45 -3
A huge value in it.
The first time I've seen this young frenchmen playing was in february, an indoor open in Marseille.
As unknown Olivetti started from qualies and reached the quarter-final losing to Llodra a very tight match.
He's a very solid server and plays serve and volley, on very fast court he can be very dangerous.
No wonder he has a 69/48 record on indoor, while Blake is 65/50, with an age difference of 12 years.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
WTA
Some problems with the PC so I can't see any match and so I did yesterday.
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
I'll be short.
Petra Martic - A Tatishvili: Martic 3 units @2.10 -3
Picked yesterday, and haven't seen this will be played today, so odds on Martic have lowered.
Martic is a very funny player, she's something similar to Dolgopolov.
She also serve very solid for WTA standards, 7 aces 1 int first round, 1 ace for Tatishvili.
The odd looks influenced by the ranking and even more by the medical time out called by Martic near the end of her match against Pegula. Maybe her right shoulder really hurts, but after the mto she broke back and won the match, she had a day-off and the possibility to recover.
G Voskoboeva - Irina Begu: pick Begu 2 units @2.25 +2.5
I've watched Begu against Amanmuradova, a high tempo match were both played well and couldn't allow the opponents to gain too much advantage, because this surface is very fast and it's easier also for women to hold the serve.
Surprised that Begu defeated Cornet, so I think she's in a good shape and her nerves holding on, this surface seems to suit her powerful strokes.
A double of favourites that I can't see losing today.
U.Radwanska @1.33
Jovanovski @1.61
Double 2 units @2.15 -2
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: Brkic 1 unit @5.00 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Tomislav Brkic: set betting 2-1 1 unit @4.00 -1
Againg I'll go against the two-titles-in-a-row Haider-Maurer, Brkic already won as underdog in the previous round
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
WTA - Challenger
Only small pick today, from Banja Luka and Todi:
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): Krajinovic 1 unit @3.75 +2.75
Adrian Ungur (ROU) – Filip Krajinovic (SRB): set betting 2-1 1 unit@3.75 -1
Following the "Tommasi Rule" I'll bets against recent Brasov runner up.
After a whole week of matches, including a great nerves tension for a final, Ungur could suffer a lows of foucus.
His opponent even if not as good as Ungur could at least take a set.
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur: Dzumhur 1 unit @3.50 -1
Andreas Haider-Maurer - Damir Dzumhur set betting 2-1 1 unit @3.75 -1
Same reasons of the previous pick.
Haider-Maurer is coming from 2 whole week, winning two titles in a row.
Kamil Capkovic - Tomislav Brkic (BIH): Brkic 1 unit @2.20 +1.2
Given that ther are about 200 places between them in the ranking this odds is a bit small.
Maybe they've noticed that 1/11 records on clay for Capkovic, I've seen him at the first round of Genova Challenger last week and he showed he's a very bad claycourter as he can't bear long rallies and get rid of the rally shooting far wide.
+0.95
Watched the whole Knapp def [1]Niculescu 2-6 6-3 7-5.
Very nervy match, in the last set there was in the air the same tension felt for Sharapova - Azarenka at the USO, both tired but unwilling to lose, with Niculescu breaking Knapp serving for the match, but then giving up.
The match has developed on one scheme that had little variation following the player who held the momentum: Niculescu playing smartly defensively and containing Knapp hard hits.
Niculescu though looks like one of the finest wrist in WTA, she plays a nice scliced forehand, mostly side-spinned, with low bounces; excellent also in volleying, and having played very few of them seems her major fault in this loss.
Her weak point is the second serve (nothing relevant the first, still decent): very slow and always attacked by Knapp.
The easy first set was due to many errors by Knapp, maybe recorded as unforced but I'll call them forced since returning those sliced balls is great effort and it's easier to lose those point than to find a winner.
Then Niculescu lower her level, maybe a low shape since she played 4 matches since june, and Knapp raised hers with less forehand errors and more convinction on the return.
Knapp adjusted her footwork and played more on the backhand cross were she was more solid, more focused than most of her match.
Monday, September 10, 2012
This week...
This week tournaments draws:
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
(Ladies first)
WTA Quebec City, hard indoor: http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/656/MDS.pdf
WTA Tashkent, hard (outdoor): http://www.wtatennis.com/SEWTATour-Archive/posting/2012/825/MDS.pdf
ATP Challengers:
Banja Luka, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1607/mds.pdf
Todi, clay: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/3627/mds.pdf
Petange, hard: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/6592/mds.pdf
Starting from Todi, nearest to my last experience, I dare say [1] Lorenzi upsetted in the first round last week and [2]Volandri shouldn't have great problem to make their way up to the final.
Volandri was terrific last week and it's still a mistery how Montanes defeated him, though Montanes won the title beating also Robredo in the final.
Less to say about Lorenzi, who lost to Dustin Brown after being 5-2 up in both sets.
Possible dark horses:
[3]Ungur stylish clay-courter but as runner-up in Brasov I think he could pay for his efforts, a small bet against him yet in the first round is very tempting.
[4]Kuznetsov young talented, I'll keep an eye on him since I've never seen him playing.
[7]Giannessi, in the same quarter of Ungur, has a great chance to get at least a semifinal spot, while [8]Meffert is on upset alert yet in the second round, were he could face Naso who's in a good period, the two of them met just last week with Naso winning in straight sets.
Banja Luka:
I little trust that part of the world, and I little trust [2]Phau.
My favors go to [1] Kavcic.
[7]Haider-Maurer on early upset alert after two titles in a row last two weeks.
Petange:
This is the most interesting Challenger of the week, with better ranked players preparing the asian hard-court season.
[1]Muller left-handed big server and also local player is the clear favored.
Great talents in the same half [2]Zopp and [3]Berankis.
But if Zopp has some easy round up to the semifinal, I don't consider Zeballos[6] a great danger;
Berankis got the worst draw, de Scheeper at the first round, Hernych at the second, Serra, Mathieu or the young talented Hebert in the quarterfinal.
Tashkent:
Hard first round for [1]Nicolescu facing Knapp, Mestre's ITF winner last week. The post-injury Knapp doesn't give her best on hardcourt and rarely plays on it though.
[6]Jovanovski as my dark horse here.
Quebec City:
Interesting tournament also this one, played on indoor carpet, including n.14 WTA Cibulkova as #1
and Wickmayer as #2, and also unseeded players of high level.
Many good first round as as also #1 and 2 had alredy lost from their opponent Flipkens and Riske rispectively.
[5]Oprandi on upset alert facing young Annika Beck, great results at Junior level.
On a very fast court ther could be a good result for Barthel[3], solid server, after a season below the expectations, Zahalavova-Strycova[6] in Barthel's quarter could have trouble to play her dropshots, and other spins.
Also expecting something from [7]Martic, avoiding a first round against Giorgi who withdrew, she'll now play a qualifier. Her quarter is the same of Cibulkova but if Petra plays as she can also Cibu's defense could suffer to hit back balls with not the same spin for two times in a row.
R Oprandi - Annika Beck: Beck 4 units @2.37 +5.48
Beck can hit the ball very hard and also serve fast, indoor she could do very well.
No wonder she's already 16/3 indoor this season and has recorded more matches than Oprandi on this surface.
Nielsen - Eysseric: Eysseric 1 unit @2.25 -1
Small bet as I do't know them, but Nielsen usually plays only in doubles and in effect they've got similar ranking thuogh Eysseric is much younger.
de Schepper - Berankis: de Schepper 1 unit @2.75 -1
Small bet because Kenny's a good server but Berankis is raising his level recently.
+3.48
Impressive stuff for Beck. 6-1 7-6(11) the score. For two times she went to serve for the match (on the 5-4, and 6-5) than had 6 match points before the good one in the tie-break, also Oprandi dropped a set point.
Beck looks solid on both side, better on the forehand as she also turn around the ball instead of hitting the backhand. She hammers from the baseline but lacks of winning strokes, so she has to make her opponents run from side or push her far back the baseline. A bit insecure when she's at the net, her wrist is not so still and soft to play volleys or dropshot, similar to Sharapova.
Easy one fore Berankis, 6-4 6-2; while Eysseric went a set up but Nielsen came back and won, 3-6 6-4 6-1 .
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Next week
-7 units this week following Genova Challenger, though got some ideas about the style of some players to consider as an investement for the future.
I don't know what I'll follow next week.
I think a bit of the WTA of Tashkent and the Banja Luka and Todi Challenger.
A little double of favourites Robredo who I'm not expecting to fail against Montanes (solid 8-0 lead in the head to head) and a young girl from the WTA Quebec qualies:
Robredo @1.57
Scholl @1.50
Double 2 units @2.35
I don't know what I'll follow next week.
I think a bit of the WTA of Tashkent and the Banja Luka and Todi Challenger.
A little double of favourites Robredo who I'm not expecting to fail against Montanes (solid 8-0 lead in the head to head) and a young girl from the WTA Quebec qualies:
Robredo @1.57
Scholl @1.50
Double 2 units @2.35
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 5 - SF
So it'll be a Italy vs Spain for a spot in the final.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo
As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from 5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.
Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05
-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3
Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title.
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 4 - QF
Local players easily pushing.
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.
Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.
More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.
Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.
A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.
-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 3 - R16
Some surprising results yesterday as Brown def. [3]Lorenzi with a double 7-6.
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
In both set Lorenzi was leading 5-2.
Seppi stuggled more than expected to beat young Olivo. 3-6 6-3 6-4 the score.
Looks like a lack of confidence for Seppi: a bad match with many errors above all from his stronger side, the backhand.
Olivo looked a good guy, great push from the baseline with the forehand; a double handed backhand not very incisive but solid enough to bear the rally that he alternates to a one handed slice as recover stroke, with a very natural swing; also nice manuality when playing volleys and dropshots; the second serve was attacked too frequently.
In the evening Robredo won a three set battle over [6]Rosol, 6-7 6-2 6-4, and becomes the major pretender to a spot in the final his road to the semifinal look easy (Fognini was replaced by Trusendi), and projection says he will face a not much confident Bolelli.
Today's I'll go with a couple of picks:
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Over 20.5 games 2 unit @1.90 -2
A Seppi - Facundo Arguello: pick Arguello 1 unit @4.50 -1
Given the raising shape of Arguello and the oppisite conditions of Seppi ther could be more battle than suggested by the odds.
Also thinking about an over between Gil and Gutierrez-Ferrol but I'll skip for now.
-3
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Genova Challenger - Day 2
Rain stopped Volandri - Giannessi, where Volandri was serving while 2-1 down after winning the first set tie-break.
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.
Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5
Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.
The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.
Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.
I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Genova Challenger
Here's the main draw. http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/1763/mds.pdf
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Many italian tennis player, obviously, but above also the top-ranked found a spot.
Andreas Seppi (n 27 ATP) and Fabio Fognini (n.59 ATP) got a wild-card and the number 1 and 2 of the seeding.
The massive attendance is also due to the Davis Cup match coming against Chile.
So struggling for the other places there will be recent Cordenons Challenger's winner Lorenzi [3], ATP 250 San Paolo runner-up Volandri [4] and San Marino Challenger's runner-up Bolelli [5].
Bottom half open to many posibility with Fognini who could suffer his US Open efforts, and in the same quarter, eventually the winner of the great clash at the first round between Rosol (the one who beated Nadal) and Robredo.
Match of the day today: [4]Volandri v Giannessi
More for tomorrow with [3]Lorenzi v Brown and [WC 6]Rosol v Robredo
Monday, September 3, 2012
USO - Day 8
Again I've to report some picks went unposted because of lack of time to write motivations.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
As I usually make picks daily, they are always availables here: http://penko.blogabet.com
This were yesterday' selections:
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson +1.5 set 3 units @1.88 -3
Laura Robson - Samantha Stosur: pick Robson 2 units @3.25 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini 2 units @5.5 -2
Andy Roddick - Fabio Fognini: pick Fognini + 3.5 set 4 units @1.88 +3.52
Marion Bartoli - Petra Kvitová: pick Bartoli 2 units @5 +8
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt +2.5 sets 4 units @2.15 +4.6
David Ferrer - Lleyton Hewitt: pick Hewitt 2 units @8 -2
+7.12
No clear ideas for today's matches.
Almagro, Klizan and Raonic have low odds on set handicaps and I don't feel like backing them for win.
I'll give more chances to women underdog:
1-1 in the head to head between Kerber and Errani.
I haven't seen them playing recently so I don't know their approach to the match.
Seems like Kerber can hammer hard on Errani's second.
I don't trust the german at all though, she looks to me a very emotional and I won't risk an handicap in her favour.
1-1 head to head also for Pironkova-Ivanovic both many years ago though.
Reading match reports seems Ana is little back to her best period. Forehand works good and also does service. Combining them she can easily hold service game. More troubles when rallies go longer and she shows little trouble in movements and sometimes she prefers to go round the backhand side to hit with her forehand.
This sound like a tips to Pironkova that has a solid backhand and can cause problem on this cross-court.
Bulgarian also use a slice forehand to slower the pace and hitting a weightless or low ball can take Ana to force provoking errors.
Again a game that I can't read clearly. This USO's Ivanovic should holds the line but a combative Pironkova could also cover both games and sets handicap, low odds though, no bet.
Radwanska leads 4-0 the head to head against Vinci.
This soft-hitter suit to Aga, who struggles more against hard hitter.
This is also a test to Aga's shoulder, where she's showing a patch.
Vinci's sliced backhand will force Aga to bend and to hit harder to lift the ball over the net. If the shoulder hurts... we'll see.
Low odd on the set handicap and short line in the games handicap, no bet.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
USO - Day 6
First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.
Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.
Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.
Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.
Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.
Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter
-4
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