Showing posts with label Anderson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anderson. Show all posts

Friday, April 12, 2013

Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.
It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.
Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.
There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.
The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.
Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.
Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.
Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.
At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 
In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.
But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.
And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 
Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.
I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.
Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.
Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.


Thursday, April 11, 2013

Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - thursday

Yesterday could have been a fabulous, shiny day, but poor selections and lack of focus in the only trade I was able to do covered it in red.

Thinking other seeded players would be ousted I laid Kvitova and Vinci, match I couldn't monitor, and moreover I "know" Vinci doesn't tank. Small liabilities in both, but still...
Both Kvitova and Vinci won.

The upsets were Lisicki v Cadantu (actually I picked this two days ago, but forgot), and Zakopalova v Camerin.
I was live trading that Zakopalova - Camerin. It was the kind of match I like with momentum going from side to side, and lots of service broken (19 breaks in 30 games played). The major difficult was understanding who held the momentum, since body language from both suggested otherwise.
No big disaster from me, just I backed Zakopalova, above the even (around 2.20), when she was a break down in the third set, Camerin held till the end.

All matches in both Casablanca and Katowice are televised today.
I'll start with Bertens Vinci, still think Vinci won't tank but Bertens could be an hard task.
Then I'm undecided, Cadantu - Begu or Carreno-Busta - Anderson.
I expect a classic WTA drama in the Romanian derby, but I also wonder what Anderson is doing in the dirt, and Carreno-Busta could be an hard matchup in any case.

I don't know if I'll trade it (discipline suggests me to stay awayfrom it, for different reasons) but surely I'm going to watch Volandri - Klizan and cheering Volandri.



Sunday, September 30, 2012

Week 41 - ATP draws and picks

So two 500 tournaments this week.
Both surface are hard outdoor and look slow.

China Open:
Draw
Big names here with #1 Djokovic and #2 Ferrer.
#3 Tsonga, in the bottom half, #4 Cilic, top half, #5 Gasquet, in the same quarter of Cilic, all chasing big points to get a spot in the World Tour Finals; and all of them showing a great shape recently (title for Tsonga in Metz, and for Gasquet in Bangkok, good run for Cilic at the US Open).
I don't think Djokovic will give up easily, and the draw also looks an easy one, though a lay under the even may worth a try.
Ferrer, who showed a bad shape in Kuala Lumpur, has a tricky draw as well: Lu is a good hard courter, also a 2nd round derby against Feliciano Lopez will be tough (8-7 head to head in Ferrer's favour, and form my point of view Lopez owe something to Ferrer for their last match in Barcellona), even tougher QF in the case Querrey defeated #8 Verdasco in R1 (not at all surprisingly Querrey opened as favored).
To me all Tsonga, Haas, Cilic and Gasquet looks good in case of a bad shape of the first two seeded.

Japan Open:
Draw.
#1 seeded is Andy Murray here, followed by World Tours Finals chaser, named Berdych #2, Tipsarevic #3, Monaco #4 and Almagro #5.
Berdych for what he's showed recently, also in Davis Cup, has a great chance to get at least the final: Nishikori in QF and Almagro or Monaco in SF are too soft for him. Backing over @4 might be a good thing to do.
Difficult to see an outsider, Raonic is perfect for this role but always fail to mantain the promises.

Picks
Back Baker @2.62: too solid player for Anderson, whose serve also is not that dangerous on not that fast surfaces, Baker did well in the qualies.
Back Zhang @2.24: I don't know this two young chinese but Zhang leads 5-2 the head to heads.
Lay Wozniacki @1.14: Woz played two intense weeks, might be not fully fit.