T Bellucci - P Andujar: pick Andujar @3.50 1 unit
I always thought Andujar to be a decent hardcourter for his tennis is pretty offensive.
Different from most (nearly totality) of spaniards he plays closer to the baseline, and attack from both sides, above all from forehand.
Bellucci has just had a great july getting many points from clay and that has probably made his season.
Despite Bellucci leading the head to head 3-0, all of them on clay, I consider Andujar techinically superior and also given he is better ranked (37 Andujar, 40 Bellucci) I'd made odds lower.
D Goffin - T Berdych: pick Goffin +2.5 set @1.95 2 units
I don't use this kind of selection often, but here this is going to be a must today.
Pick's made against Berdych mental grip that is never been so good and could easily drop a set give he also come from Winston-Salem Final played two days ago.
Goffin is a young talented with solid serve and grondstrokes that makes him able to bear the rallies against Berdych.
T Pironkova - C Giorgi: pick Giorgi @2.37 3 units
Despite there's "ITA" written next to Camila Giorgi she has really little to do with Italy. She's an argentinian that does her training in the USA.
And her tennis can be defined an american-one, done of great serve with a first ball speed that could work also in ATP, and aggressive groundstrokes.
Giving a look to her 2011 here http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 , and her 2012 here: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/player/giorgi/?annual=2011 we see that she plays out of USA only in Grand Slams.
I think this year's Wimbledon run has helped her to find convinction in herself, and on the other hand has shown a Pironkova in great difficulty, as if she hasn't been working and that was happenning also last season.
So an ascending player against a descending one.
And surface will help more the powerful Giorgi than the crazy Pironkova who needs the crazy bounce of grass court.
B Jovanovski - M Barthel: pick Jovanovski @4.00 1 unit
Berthel is trying to find back herself after a couple of awful months.
Meanwhile Jovanvski is growing up.
Barthel has a good record on hard so far this year but going deep her opponents often were unrelevant ones that took her to be a bit overrated on later tournaments, like I find her to be here.
M Kirilenko - C Scheepers: pick Scheepers +1.5 set @2.46 1 unit
Another set handicap against a last weekend finalist.
And it was a very tough match for Kirilenko losing 7-6 7-5 to Kvitova.
Scheepers is a solid baseliner that could easily take advantage of a lower of tension.
Kirilenko is playing a lot since june: quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, fourth place in both singles and double at the Olyimpics, and final last week in New Haven.
Scheepers also leads the hardcourt head to head 2-1 (the total of the h2h is 2-2).
Rememeber this? http://bettobettingblog.blogspot.it/2012/08/us-open-draws.html
Radwanska from 65 to 48 and no match played, today's match against Bratchikova.
-0,5
Showing posts with label Kirilenko. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kirilenko. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Wimby Ladies' QF/ Gentlemen's R16
S Williams - P Kvitova: pick Kvitova @2.42 1 unit
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit
Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.
I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.
All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit
Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.
I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.
All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Wimby R3
Here's my pick for today:
M Kirilenko - S Cirstea : pick Cirstea @2.5 1 unit
mmm... well I don't know... I like Kiri (who doesn't?) but i don't trust her at all. To me she always looks to be playing on a narrow edge. Good run for Kiri in Wimby but today her opponent is much better than the previus ones.
Good Wimby also for Cirstea who beated Na Li. Usually defating a top 10 makes your odds drop in the following round, seems it's not this time.
A grass win for Cirstea back in 2008 in Den Bosch.
M Youzhny - J Tipsarevic: pick Youzhny @2.68 1 unit
Misha doesn't deserve such a odd, he's crazy and that puts him in the category of player that should be picked when underdog, and avoided when he isn't.
Both players have goods records on grass, but for differents reasons given by their way to play.
Janko needs rhythm, like a little Djokovic, he need to run on the baseline and getting the point passing you from both side. They high speed of grass suits him.
Misha, on the other hand, tries to do whatever is passing in is mind when he's about to hit the ball, and there are no still point in his game. Grass makes it easier when you've got such a variety of strokes.
Not giving rhythm to Janko puts the Serbian at least at your own level.
A Falla - D Istomin: pick Falla @2.92 2 units
Is the same Falla that defated Isner an Mahut? The one that also took Federer to the fifth set in 2010?
I don't understend... Istomin ok he's a big server but he's very slow, he isn't even on the same level of Isner or Mahut on grass.
Other ideas are:
Rus... a nice grasscourter, but also Peng is. At higher odds i'd pick the dutch.
And the high-odded Watson and Giorgi.
M Kirilenko - S Cirstea : pick Cirstea @2.5 1 unit
mmm... well I don't know... I like Kiri (who doesn't?) but i don't trust her at all. To me she always looks to be playing on a narrow edge. Good run for Kiri in Wimby but today her opponent is much better than the previus ones.
Good Wimby also for Cirstea who beated Na Li. Usually defating a top 10 makes your odds drop in the following round, seems it's not this time.
A grass win for Cirstea back in 2008 in Den Bosch.
M Youzhny - J Tipsarevic: pick Youzhny @2.68 1 unit
Misha doesn't deserve such a odd, he's crazy and that puts him in the category of player that should be picked when underdog, and avoided when he isn't.
Both players have goods records on grass, but for differents reasons given by their way to play.
Janko needs rhythm, like a little Djokovic, he need to run on the baseline and getting the point passing you from both side. They high speed of grass suits him.
Misha, on the other hand, tries to do whatever is passing in is mind when he's about to hit the ball, and there are no still point in his game. Grass makes it easier when you've got such a variety of strokes.
Not giving rhythm to Janko puts the Serbian at least at your own level.
A Falla - D Istomin: pick Falla @2.92 2 units
Is the same Falla that defated Isner an Mahut? The one that also took Federer to the fifth set in 2010?
I don't understend... Istomin ok he's a big server but he's very slow, he isn't even on the same level of Isner or Mahut on grass.
Other ideas are:
Rus... a nice grasscourter, but also Peng is. At higher odds i'd pick the dutch.
And the high-odded Watson and Giorgi.
Cirstea and Falla lost... I saw a bit of Falla's forth set and both the players were awful.
Soldier Youzhny won.
-1.32 units
Some ideas for tomorrow, maybe a too much american day and I'll better sleep on it: Roddick, Fish and Querrey.
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