Fri - 06/12 - Betting Beaver Creek and Lake Louise DHs

I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.

Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.



I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.

I went crazy with the ladies.

I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.

From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.

Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.

On to the head to heads.

Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.

Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.

Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team)  is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.

Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.

The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.

13 March - Downhill(s) - Lenzerheide

The strange results that come out at the end of the season plus today's thick fog not encouraging picks, although there are some tempting odds on head to head.

The slope is almost the same for both gender, only few gates are different.
It's a very technical slope with many turns and close to none slippery section.
Here's a video of the race back in 2011

Back in that day men's podium was: Theaux, Puchner, Svindal.
Ladies' podium was: Mancuso, Gut, Goergl.

As I said yesterday I think the odds on the two favorites, Maze and Svindal, are too low for what they've done in this discipline so far this season.
Here's my winners:

Ladies
Gut to win 1 unit @7
She'll have the biggest suppurt being the star of the swiss team.
2nd place in 2011, but I won't say she's grown since then, still she should be the one that knows better this slope and being so hard it also suit to her aggressive style.

Fenninger to win 1 unit @6
She's in great shape winning last two races, a giant-slalom and a super-g, that prove her technical skills.
She's also the one that better performs in tough condition and with bad visibility.

Men
Paris to win 1 unit @10
Well, Actually I don't know why I've picked him... sensation.
There's the say that many turns aren't for him, but I don't think so, he's Kitz champ and silver medal at the world championships where he made an acrobatic change of direction while flying. He's powerful and mad enough to win everywhere.

Kroell to win 1 unit @9
He must be one of the most disappointed of this season being with no wins.
Still he is 2nd in downhill standing, thank to his constancy of results, and leads a special standing made by ski-database.com, based on total time:

CORRECTED RANKING
NQ, DNF, DSQ, DNS, POS>30 receive time of last pointed plus 0.01

Races completed: 8		Total Race Lenght: 24.441m
POS	RACER	TOTAL	DIFF
1	Klaus Kroell AUT	14'36.53	0.00
2	Aksel-Lund Svindal NOR	14'37.85	-1.32
3	Dominik Paris ITA	14'37.89	-1.36
4	Christof Innerhofer ITA	14'39.21	-2.68
5	Hannes Reichelt AUT	14'40.31	-3.78
6	Adrien Theaux FRA	14'40.50	-3.97
7	Erik Guay CAN	14'40.97	-4.44
8	Werner Heel ITA	14'41.84	-5.31
9	David Poisson FRA	14'42.95	-6.42
10	Romed Baumann AUT	14'43.29	-6.76
11	Georg Streitberger AUT	14'43.91	-7.38
12	Travis Ganong USA	14'44.11	-7.58
13	Manuel Osborne-Paradis CAN	14'44.23	-7.70
14	Jan Hudec CAN	14'44.40	-7.87
15	Joachim Puchner AUT	14'44.44	-7.91
16	Patrick Kueng SUI	14'45.00	-8.47
17	Peter Fill ITA	14'45.10	-8.57
18	Benjamin Thomsen CAN	14'45.14	-8.61
19	Didier Defago SUI	14'45.70	-9.17
20	Andrej Sporn SLO	14'45.85	-9.32

Being the disadvantage being wide enough (58 points) he is much in nothing-to-lose situation.
He is an excellent turn maker.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The thick fog won.














Both races were cancelled.
So... Vonn won DH globe by 1 point.
Svindal won DH globe, but Hirscher is closer to the Overall.
Hoefl-Riesch won fair play title.


Riesch won the 2011 Overall on Vonn by just 3 points because of the cancelled Super-G and Giant-Slalom at the finals (also in Lenzerheide).

All bets are refounded

Schladming 2013 - Men's Downhill

The Queen of the races, takes place.
As usual, and maybe even more this time, in Austria there's a lot of talking and media's attention on this event; mostly brought by the selections of who'll race this one.

Few things can be undertood from the two time trials.
Yesterday's practice was even shortened because the finish line is the same for every race and while men where practicing the downhill slope, there was ladies' slalom run of the super-combined.
So last section of the course was cut away. The practice ended about at the level of the "italienerloch".
From the first practice reports Innerhofer and Reichelt made the best time in that section, and this can be a great advantage, above all for austrians that surely know better this slope.

Starting list:

Bib	FIS Code	Name	Year	Nation	Skis
1	194190	ROGER Brice	1990	FRA	Rossignol
2	380260	KOSTELIC Ivica	1979	CRO	Fischer
3	53902	MAYER Matthias	1990	AUT	Head
4	400281	VAN HEEK Marvin	1991	NED	Salomon
5	201606	KEPPLER Stephan	1983	GER	Head
6	560447	SPORN Andrej	1981	SLO	Elan
7	180570	ROMAR Andreas	1989	FIN	Atomic
8	102271	HUDEC Jan	1981	CAN	Rossignol
9	292514	HEEL Werner	1982	ITA	Atomic
10	53817	FRANZ Max	1989	AUT	Atomic
11	533131	SULLIVAN Marco	1980	USA	Atomic
12	510727	DEFAGO Didier	1977	SUI	Rossignol
13	191964	POISSON David	1982	FRA	Salomon
14	292455	FILL Peter	1982	ITA	Atomic
15	103271	THOMSEN Benjamin	1987	CAN	Head
16	102263	GUAY Erik	1981	CAN	Atomic
17	421328	SVINDAL Aksel Lund	1982	NOR	Head
18	291459	PARIS Dominik	1989	ITA	Nordica
19	50742	REICHELT Hannes	1980	AUT	Salomon
20	192746	THEAUX Adrien	1984	FRA	Salomon
21	293006	INNERHOFER Christof	1984	ITA	Rossignol
22	50753	KROELL Klaus	1980	AUT	Salomon
23	102899	OSBORNE-PARADIS Manuel	1984	CAN	Rossignol
24	511313	JANKA Carlo	1986	SUI	Atomic
25	511139	KUENG Patrick	1984	SUI	Salomon
26	530874	GANONG Travis	1988	USA	Atomic
27	510890	ZURBRIGGEN Silvan	1981	SUI	Rossignol
28	533866	NYMAN Steven	1982	USA	Fischer
29	192932	FAYED Guillermo	1985	FRA	Head
30	561216	KLINE Bostjan	1991	SLO	Stoeckli
31	501439	HEDIN Douglas	1990	SWE	Head
32	481705	GLEBOV Alexander	1983	RUS	Head
33	150398	BANK Ondrej	1980	CZE	Elan
34	491129	TERRA Ferran	1987	SPA	Rossignol
35	491151	DE LA CUESTA Paul	1988	SPA	Salomon
36	561217	KOSI Klemen	1991	SLO	Atomic
37	530939	WEIBRECHT Andrew	1986	USA	Rossignol
38	20267	ESTEVE Kevin	1989	AND
39	430429	BYDLINSKI Maciej	1988	POL	Atomic
40	481054	MURAVYEV Ivan	1989	RUS
41	660021	DANILOCHKIN Yuri	1991	BLR
42	670037	ZAKURDAEV Igor	1987	KAZ
43	20324	OLIVERAS Marc	1991	AND
44	380341	ULLRICH Max	1994	CRO
45	670052	KHUBER Martin	1992	KAZ
46	30149	SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier	1980	ARG	Atomic
47	170131	FAARUP Christoffer	1992	DAN
48	92534	CHONGAROV Nikola	1989	BUL	Volkl
49	150495	VRABLIK Martin	1982	CZE	Elan
50	92570	GEORGIEV Svetoslav	1991	BUL
51	550022	RODE Roberts	1987	LAT
52	710320	LAIKERT Igor	1991	BIH
53	430472	KLUSAK Michal	1990	POL	Head
54	670058	KOSHKIN Dmitriy	1986	KAZ
55	30283	FREEMAN CRESPO Ignacio	1992	ARG
56	410364	FEASEY Willis	1992	NZL
57	670029	PIMENOV Taras	1984	KAZ
58	690086	FESHCHUK Rostyslav	1990	UKR

Again as it's happening many times there are racer with odds that won't take part to the competition and no-odds racer that will be in.

Svindal is the favourite again, followed by Paris, Reichel, Innerhofer, Kroell and Guay.
Hard to see a different name on the highest step of the podium this time.
Snow condition and also the day time (no darkening and bad vision) hardly will pull a Ligety, an outsider winner.
I also noticed that in both men and women speed events so far Head skis has the tendency to be faster.
Of the top competitors only Svindal has Head skis.

h2h Fill - Mayer - pick Fill 2 units @2.83 Won +3.66
Mayer was one of those austrina in the eye of the media' storm, being named in in place of Baumann or Puchner.
Fill isn't in great conditions but the starting bib, #3 Mayer, #14 Fill, is a great advantage for the italian.

A pick won, actually could be an easier win but Fill made a mistake in one of the last turns and lost speed for the slippery part before the finish line.

The best one as won the race. Svindal was just perfect from the starting gate to the red finish line. A great champion who deserved this medal after all.
+.46 from the leader for Dominik Paris, that's a confirmation of the quality talented... at 24 years old he could be considered young.
Surprise bronze medal to Poisson from france, +.97 from the leader. Including Rolland's gold medal in women's downhill and France leading the medal standing could be said that find a frenchmen on the podium isn't a surprise anymore, they've probably planned their season for this event.

Again no medals for Austria Ski Team: Kroell 4th, Reichelt went out.
Video of the top three runs, Svindal one's deserve to be watched, sorry for the italian commentators, but I've found this youtube user that post these videos.

18/01 Men's Super-Combined - Wengen

The long weekend in Wengen opens with a Super-Combined event, which is made by a downhill and only one run of slalom.
After the downhill the start list of the slalom is made from dh top 30 reversed (first start 30th placed of the dh, then 29th... down to 1st placed, after this also athletes out of top30 take the start, a win from these is much unlikely to happen)
It's the first of only two Combined in this season's calendar, next one (last one) is next weekend in Kitzbuhel.
Only one run of slalom makes those who prefer downhill big favored anyway...

h2h Svindal - Ligety - pick Ligety 1 unit @3.28 Lost -1
Big opportunity for Svindal to get some important points for the World Cup as current leader Hirscher is not racing in this event.
Anyway Ligety can suffer little damages in the dowhill and take the start in the slalom with a good number (from 15-20 I think) and make a good run.
While Svindal, who's not a slolom specialist, will take the start with one of the last number and run on a ruined slope and to take care of scoring points he'll probably go down very carefully

h2h Marsaglia - Innerhoffer - pick Marsaglia 1 unit @3.01 Lost -1
Small stake on the young Marsaglia, who's started his career as specialist of the combined.
Recently he's focused more on speed events like Downhill and Super-G reducing the gap between him and Innerhoffer.

h2h Raich - Jansrud - pick Raich 2 units @2.62 Won +3.24
Too bad odds are much more high now.
Anyway I think Combined is the only event where Raich can hope in some big results. He hardly finishes out of the top 10.
Jansrud is a great downhiller but lacks in slalom, I hope he'll use this event like an additional training for the true Dowhill race of saturday

h2h Innerhofer - Theaux - pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.75 Won +1.5
Odd is right, tough head to head, I prefer Innerhofer that maybe overall is better in both downhill and slalom.

h2h Jansrud - Pinturault - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.70 Won +2.1
Pinturault it's the best slalom specialist racing this one.
He's also decent enough in speed disciplines, and I think his team is working on him to make him compete for the Cup in the future, so combined is a good starting point and test to see his attitudes.

h2h Paris - Puchner - pick Paris 2 units @1.62 Won +1.24
I don't know how's Puchner in slalom, I think not good like most of downhill racer.
Paris is quite good in Combined, great in downhill and decent enough in slalom

+6.08
Bit lucky for Jansrud lost a ski while he was doing a good slalom run, he was close to beat Raich.
Decent Slalom also from Paris.
Very bad Svindal who's lost the little slalol-skills he had years ago.
Pinturault is too strong in slalom also for Kostelic by now.