Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):
Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.
Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.
Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.
Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.
From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.
Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.
I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.
Place and final position in this season downhills
Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better
Svindal is just impressive
Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel
Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.
DNF in Beaver Creek
Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)
Another good day yesterday, winning all the head to heads. Actually, I haven't seen what happened in slalom's run2 - I know it was strange, although not as strange as run1 setted by Papa Kostelic.
Feeling is that Hargin's peak form is either gone, or rather faded, or it's still there (he's stil a top performer) but he's bearing in his mind what happened in Adelboden when he couldn't hold the lead and dropped to 4th in the second run.
On to today's DHs - the biggest events of the tours.
I think anything could happen in Kitz. But for the most part Bode looks like the one who should win (my humble opininion: Bode came back more for winning Kitz than for the Olympics). Svindal maybe his the best physical power and endurance -key elements on this long course. Reichelt's form has raised recently and so Kueng's. Last year winner, Paris, had problems getting back in shape after his crash in december, hardly he'll defend his title.
On ladies side Hoefl-Riesch is the one to beat, her form is terrific at the moment and she's in full run for the Cup.
Behind her the same lot: Fenninger, Weirather and Goergl.
I had good impressions from Mancuso yesterday, and I'm backing her today, she's getting closer and closer to the top, and so is the whole US team: almost every one scored a season best yesterday.
So I'm picking Leanne Smith over Marchand-Arvier: the frenchwoman lost the whole pre-season and came back to race only few weekends ago, all the missing time is sensible seeing her racing.
Also backing Merighetti, on her favourite course; I know Schmidhofer (bib #39) was 3rd yesterday but I think condition changed a bit for late starters: young US Jakie Wiles (bib #41) was 15th (first WC points for her) and Hungarian Miklos (bib #45) was 18th tied with Slovenian Ferk (bib #38)
Very heavy saturday as both gender are racing on the best (imho) downhill courses of their calendar.
Open brawl in women's one, where I honestly don't know what could happen. Maze likes this slope, but Maria Riesch looks like the one to beat. Fenninger, Weirather and Kaufmann-Abderalden, though, have been the most solid so far, while Gut's shape has little faded and Goergl's one has raised.
To all this there's to add the cancelled training, and due to fog start has already been lowered.
In men's DH I think there might be surprises -read Svindal could not win this. The vinking in fact doesn't like this course and has never won here (he also crashed dramatically last year).
I couldn't say who could replace Svindal on the top step of the podium though; my names are: Innerhofer, who usually does well here, and so do Reichelt; same for Kroell but his form doesn't look the best; my dark horse would be Beat Feuz: the Swiss has won here in 2012 and his season has been decent considering he's skipped last season
Got a day short in posting and betting.
So this post will be a bit obsolete, but anyway...
Opposing the US didn't work, they actually showed signs of improvements in saturday's downhill and peaked yeasterday with Vonn finishing 5th in super-g.
The most disappointing thing of the weekend was skipping all the bets on Weirather after friday's lost ones. For the second DH there were the same odds in Weirather - Fenninger h2h market, and likely there were also for the SG.
Men's double was lost by just .02s thanks to a big run of Jansrud.
Weekend turn from profit to a 1.2 units lost and a ROI of -2.85%
Season finally getting on the heart: there will be races every weekend, but above all the fight for the standings is flareing up as contenders becoming more defined.
Ladies. Gut held on her WC lead on a course not suitable for her, runnind defensively in the two DHs and hit ting as soon as she could winning the SG.
Maria Riesch rose to the 2nd position, she easily dominated the DHs, but a big mistake in the SG prevented her from another solid placement. Being a top competitor also in slalom potentially she's winning big points in every event (super-combis and city-events included), she's now favourite to win the Crystal Globe.
Tied in third place Weirather and Fenninger are solid competitors, they are skiing at Gut's level and it's just a matter of time before they step on the top of the podium.
I'll limited the field of competitors to them. Maze and Shiffrin are more than 100 points behind Weirather/Fenninger, I'm about to rule them out with different reasons: Maze, as I said before, centered her summer preparation on the Olympics so she'll probably float mid-standing for another while, if form will eventually come she could have a Kostelic-like month although the lot of competitors has grown tougher in every discipline -hard task. Shiffrin runs for the win in slalom and giant-slalom, but though her regularity of results it's only two disciplines against Gut/Weirather/Fenninger's three and Riesch's four.
On men's side it's Svindal vs Hirsher again but with another character coming on the scene. Ted Ligety somehow increased the gap dividing him from the chasers in giant-slalom, and with solid super-gs and slaloms he could become an unexpected guest in the Cup fight.
Other interesting features: Bode and Vonn coming back, Janka and Jansrud as well.
Super-G surprise by Kueng (first Swiss win in centuries) and Otmar Striedinger
Italian speed team great form and GS team disaster, while France GS and speed are to be put back into perspective.
Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.
Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.
I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.
Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.
Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.
Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet.
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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g
Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.
I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.
I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.
In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.
In men's tour music didn't change from last year: Ligety still winning with margin on chasers in GS, same for Hirscher in SL, Svindal won in SG, and Paris the DH.
Overall
The fight for the Globe once again looks limited to Svindall, king of the fast disciplines, and Hirscher, king of the tech, with the austrian again andvantaged by the number of events (9 slaloms and downhills, 8 giant-slaloms, and only 6 super-gs, + 2 super-combi and a city-event).
Ligety should find more solidy in either slalom or super-g, or maybe he just should use better super-combies as he's one of the most completes and yet he scored 0 points in kombies lat year.
Pinturault potentially has the podium in his legs in slalom, but he lacks of consistency. Frequency of results there could turn him into a new Hirscher.
Kostelic looks far behind these. He is still fighting for top position in slalom, but the field there is wide and the points he is going to lose are more of those he is going to win there. Super-G and downhill hardly are taking him big points, above all compared to the risks he is taking competiting in those after all his knee surgery he underwent.
Comebacks: Miller, Lizeroux, Feuz
Some big names came back this year. Honestly I can't see they win or find placements at the very top of the standing (at least not in the short period) but anyway for me it was a great pleasure to have them back as they all at some point in the past have represented the best of their specific discipline, or of skis in general - guess who am I talking about?.
Age isn't on Miller and Lizeroux's side while Feuz once he'll have scratch off the rust should become relevant again.
Up-and-comers
Vinking Henrik Kristoffersen, 19 yo, surely deserve the first mention. He was the surprise of Levi reaching his first WC podium behind Hirsher and Matt. Away from the major tour, he's backing that astonishing results with other good placements in European Cup and leading the overall standing.
Compatriot Sebastian-Foss Solevaag, older than Kristoffersen but with less WC starts, was another surprising youngster. 9th place in Levi where he was bib #55, and doing good in EC as well: 3rd and 2nd place in two slaloms.
Harder to find top-performing youngster in the fast disciplines, where maturity seems to arrive later.
Austrian Matthias Mayer grabbed 2nd place in SG and 13th in DH in Lake Louise, though he already is full-time part of the OSV from few season.
Freasher names are France's Brice Roger and Austria's Otmar Striedinger who got two top 20 placements in Lake Louise.
The Queen of the races, takes place.
As usual, and maybe even more this time, in Austria there's a lot of talking and media's attention on this event; mostly brought by the selections of who'll race this one.
Few things can be undertood from the two time trials.
Yesterday's practice was even shortened because the finish line is the same for every race and while men where practicing the downhill slope, there was ladies' slalom run of the super-combined.
So last section of the course was cut away. The practice ended about at the level of the "italienerloch".
From the first practice reports Innerhofer and Reichelt made the best time in that section, and this can be a great advantage, above all for austrians that surely know better this slope.
Again as it's happening many times there are racer with odds that won't take part to the competition and no-odds racer that will be in.
Svindal is the favourite again, followed by Paris, Reichel, Innerhofer, Kroell and Guay.
Hard to see a different name on the highest step of the podium this time.
Snow condition and also the day time (no darkening and bad vision) hardly will pull a Ligety, an outsider winner.
I also noticed that in both men and women speed events so far Head skis has the tendency to be faster.
Of the top competitors only Svindal has Head skis.
h2h Fill - Mayer - pick Fill 2 units @2.83Won +3.66
Mayer was one of those austrina in the eye of the media' storm, being named in in place of Baumann or Puchner.
Fill isn't in great conditions but the starting bib, #3 Mayer, #14 Fill, is a great advantage for the italian.
A pick won, actually could be an easier win but Fill made a mistake in one of the last turns and lost speed for the slippery part before the finish line.
The best one as won the race. Svindal was just perfect from the starting gate to the red finish line. A great champion who deserved this medal after all.
+.46 from the leader for Dominik Paris, that's a confirmation of the quality talented... at 24 years old he could be considered young.
Surprise bronze medal to Poisson from france, +.97 from the leader. Including Rolland's gold medal in women's downhill and France leading the medal standing could be said that find a frenchmen on the podium isn't a surprise anymore, they've probably planned their season for this event.
Again no medals for Austria Ski Team: Kroell 4th, Reichelt went out.
Video of the top three runs, Svindal one's deserve to be watched, sorry for the italian commentators, but I've found this youtube user that post these videos.
Day 2 at the world championships, and men in action.
This slope is not the same of ladies's one, for speed events.
Again, though, it's an easy one, without very hard section nor jumps... being wide many course can be set and course setting might be the key given it'll be done by Norvegian and Svindal's coach.
Last year's race isn't relevant. Late season race, with "rotten" snow, that early displayed mark. Low starting bibs were advantaged: 1st Innerhofer #8, 2nd Pinturault #5, 3rd Hirscher #2 (in one of his rare SG race), 4th Marsaglia #7.
Svindal is the big favoured and men to beat. He is SG Cup leader, in four SGs this season won three and made a second place.
Super-G is a strange discipline because it's a speed event but there are no time trial, there's a race inspection but you can't try gates at a race-like speed, so it's much about improvisation, it can be said you must know how to ski to compete in a Super-G. And actually Svindal know how to ski.
Behind Svindal there's Innerhofer. Beside being defending World Champion, and last year winner on this slope I don't give him so many chanches. He is in great shape but he may not like the snow conditions.
3rd favourite in Norway's no.2 Jansrud. Again he could be advantaged by the course setting (by his coach), but again he's been below the expectations so far in this season. He's often near the podium but no major results.
I see Reichelt as possible outsider. His raising form, the ability of austrian team in setting the skis (there will be different kind of snow on the course, I think only eskimos have a word to describe it all). He's one who can possibly put together all the technical elements needed in this race.
From the first group:
Klotz, is in good form but it's not a top racer.
Theaux, I like him, his aggressivity, but I don't trust him on this snow, sensibility more than angles will be required today.
Heel, about him I'd say the same of Theaux, though I think he's more overall skilled, I won't trust him but he's able of anything.
Mayer, being austrian, can be a possible outsider. And so could be for Streitberger and Baumann who, though, had a bad season... Championships focus for them? Who knows.
On this kind of snow canadians must be kept in high considerations.
Although their skills among turns aren't good enough there's their key racer Guay who's one of those able to give something more in important events.
And then there's Kostelic, who comes from three podiums in a row in three different disciplines: Slalom and Super-Combined in Kitz, and the city event in Moscow.
The croatian looks to be the one in the best shape, and although Super-G isn't his favourite discipline a good condition and confidence can drive to a good result, thing that actually happened in Garmish when Kostelic who the bronze medal in Super-G following that terrific january.
h2h Streitberger - Theaux - pick Streitberger 3 units @2.02Lost -3
I don't really trust Streitberger, but I think Theaux won't like this snow conditions. -7
It's very disappointing to see a whole season work and "return of investmenst" to disappear in just two days.
Anyway there's to be happy for the analysis that were corrects.
Super-G podium on the Planai:
1) Ligety (USA), 2) De Tessieres (Fra), 3) Svindal (Nor)
The course was set like a real Super-Giant, so no surprise to see on the podium two Giant-Slalom specialist like Ligety and frenchmen De Tessieres. These two outsiders kicked my two "men" Reichelt and Mayer off the podium.
No excuses, both Ligety and De Tessieres made a great run and deserved their placements. Svindal recorded many "green" intermediate times but in the final section a little loss of balance and control resulted in a wider line and a loss of speed causing the 3rd placement.
De Tessieres displays the widest smile as he shouldn't neither race; GdT was the reserve of the french team, and only Clarey injury let him be in. As he said to Eurosport:
"Five days ago, I was down in the dumps at home. Unfortunately, Johan got injured. It's an odd feeling. But I really meant to do well, I was eager"
No large smiles in two teams. Austria and Italy arrived with a great condition and great expectations.
Both came back withouth medals.
Austria still with no medals after the two Super-Gs. As Infostrada sport tweeted:
Team Austria has had at least one medallist in the men's Super G race in 7 of the last 8 world championships.
While Italy achieve the worst result of this season in Super-G: Innerhofer, 7th, couldn't defend Garmisch's golden medal; Marsaglia second in Super-G Cup Standing was 20th; and Heel was 22th
Video of the three best runs: Ligety, De Tessieres (at 1:47 min), Svindal (at 3:16 min, pay attention at 4:49)
