Charleston WTA - R16

Some matches with drama but only two underdog winning: Bouchard beated Robson, and Burdette beated Lisicki. Both Robson and Lisicki are in questionable form and I'm not surprised about these results.

In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :

• The price of Mattek-Sands is too short for me, I explain it by the fact BMS upsetted Stephens as underdog; Keys is a powerful baseliner, I think she'll win most of the long rallies. 
• Petkovic after her comeback is still struggling to win two matches in a row; on the other hand Wozniacki has been put back into perspective by some results as the early loss against Muguruza in Miami. I think also here the odds don't reflect the real values of the two players

Same kick-off time for these two, I'm not sure which one I'll live-trade.

• I don't know Vogele, while I hardly trust Goerges: her offensive style grants her either many winners or many unforced errors and I find it hard to predict.
• Serena-Burdette... As I wrote after the first round Serena didn't look much interested, it may worth a lay
• Pegula is the biggest surprise of this tournament coming through two rounds of the qualies, and then Muguruza and Barthel. She's good reasons to be tired after 5 matches but she's rested yesterday. Also tired because of the two dramatic previous rounds could be Jankovic. This could be an interesting match to trade, I think momentum will switch many times, I'm quite sure its going to be a three setter. 
• A bit short the odds on Lepchenko otherwise I'd fancy to pick her. I don't trust Venus too much.
• Safarova isn't in a good period, she had 4 consecutive loss before this week, she's been runner-up last year, though. Cirstea on the other hand is having a great season, and this green clay I think is a good surface for her, halfway between the most common clay and hard, she might pull the upset.
• Also Bouchard is having a great season showing great improvements, she's into the R16 coming from the qualies. Stosur this season has been just average, not too bad not too good, being her one of the big name I'd expected odds more short though, and in that case I'd have picked Bouchard.

All this said... I won't pick anything pre-match and just monitorate it all live.

Wimby R3

Here's my pick for today:
M Kirilenko - S Cirstea : pick Cirstea @2.5 1 unit
mmm... well I don't know... I like Kiri (who doesn't?) but i don't trust her at all. To me she always looks to be playing on a narrow edge. Good run for Kiri in Wimby but today her opponent is much better than the previus ones.
Good Wimby also for Cirstea who beated Na Li. Usually defating a top 10 makes your odds drop in the following round, seems it's not this time.
A grass win for Cirstea back in 2008 in Den Bosch.

M Youzhny - J Tipsarevic: pick Youzhny @2.68 1 unit
Misha doesn't deserve such a odd, he's crazy and that puts him in the category of player that should be picked when underdog, and avoided when he isn't.
Both players have goods records on grass, but for differents reasons given by their way to play.
Janko needs rhythm, like a little Djokovic, he need to run on the baseline and getting the point passing you from both side. They high speed of grass suits him.
Misha, on the other hand, tries to do whatever is passing in is mind when he's about to hit the ball, and there are no still point in his game. Grass makes it easier when you've got such a variety of strokes.
Not giving rhythm to Janko puts the Serbian at least at your own level.

A Falla - D Istomin: pick Falla @2.92 2 units
Is the same Falla that defated Isner an Mahut? The one that also took Federer to the fifth set in 2010?
I don't understend... Istomin ok he's a big server but he's very slow, he isn't even on the same level of Isner or Mahut on grass.

Other ideas are:
Rus... a nice grasscourter, but also Peng is. At higher odds i'd pick the dutch.
And the high-odded Watson and Giorgi.

Cirstea and Falla lost... I saw a bit of Falla's forth set and both the players were awful.

Soldier Youzhny won.

-1.32 units

Some ideas for tomorrow, maybe a too much american day and I'll better sleep on it: Roddick, Fish and Querrey.