Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.

It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.

Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.

There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.

The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.

Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.

Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.

Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.

At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 

In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.

But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.

And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 

Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.

I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.

Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.

Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.

ATP / WTA Moscow and Luxembourg picks - tuesday

So many matches to study and so many matches at the same time as well, that is very difficult to work out something really good.

ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.

I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.

WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.

4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.

Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.

Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.

Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.

WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.

In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.