ATP/WTA picks thursday

It's been a couple of days that I'm not too inspired about pre-match pick, I'll post some thoughts in order to keep them in mind when action will start tomorrow as well.

Tokyo
I can't see much problems for Murray, Tipsarevic, Berdych and Nishikori. I'd like to put Raonic in that list since his opponent is Troicki, though I've found some difficulties for Raonic to play against players who stands well back the baseline.
The ones that worth a try are Baghdatis and Ito.
A Back @2.60 seems very good. Bagh is very good on hardcourts and although Monaco won in Kuala Lumpur his strokes are a bit too rounded and Bagh might easily gain the baseline and even step in the court.
Ito is a tricky player on this surface, he's ranked 7th in Challenger Tour Finals Race this season, building his rank mostly (only) on hardcourts. Tursunov came thruogh the qualies but Petzschner and Tomic can't be considered relevant test recently, still he won a challenger couple of week ago. Back price near @3 for Ito seems a relevant one as odds mainly are made with the ranking (66 Ito, 117 Tursunov), then upsetting a top player usually makes odds lower.

Beijing  ATP
Seems all written in here, odds not worth a try for me though.
Youznhy to beat Anderson... Misha's playing well, also won their only head to head in Toronto. Skip it since is too early in the morning so no live.
Gasquet over the young local, not even a good one from what I saw in his first round.
Lopez might have some troubles.
Querrey should beat Seppi easily since the american is good on hard while Seppi himself said he hate this very kind of hardcourt.

Beijing WTA
Looks easy also for ladies.
Kerber - Woznicki the most interesting match up.
I don't like it too much but for me is a Back Kerber @1.61.
The german's won last two matches, both played after the change of style Kerber did passing from being offensive to defensive.

Wimby Ladies' SF

In the end I made up my mind and here a pick also for today:

A Radwanska - A Kerber: pick Radwanska @2.42 2 units
I don't know what's behind the odds, but it's a bit of a surprise to find the one better ranked as underdog. Above all in a Wimbledon semi, where also people who don't know anything about tennis are tempted to try something; and majority of them go for the dog.
Few days ago I read some comments on an article, now I can't find, about a previus round.
These run like how Kerber, on her rise this year, changed her game. And the writer of the comments was shocked of how this changement was fast, he/she says that this has stared in US Open 2011. The changement took Kerber to be a defensive player, still bit atypical.
Radwanska has defeated Kerber only after that USO, when this Kerber transformation started.

I think that Serena is the true favourite in the other semi, still too powerfull for Vika. But it's a no bet for me.

Aga won. +2.84