Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):
Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.
Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.
Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.
Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.
From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.
Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.
I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.
Place and final position in this season downhills
Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better
Svindal is just impressive
Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel
Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.
DNF in Beaver Creek
Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)
In La Parva took place some speed events valid for the South American Cup, but which involved some names of relevance also for the World Cup.
Men's downhill 1
Josef Ferstl finished in the top 30 only twice in WC, 9th in Garmisch, 30th in Kvitfjell. He has some good placements, with some wins and podiums in European Cup though, and also was 3rd in DH standind in 2012.
Brice Roger, scored several top 30 placements last season in WC and also was 15th at the Championships in Schladming. A good up and comers
Not much to say about Russian Alexander Glebov, he can easily dominate National Champs but no important results on main tour.
Just down the podium Clarey leads the group of France's veteran which includes Fayed, and out of the top10 Bertrand, Theaux, W-Champs DH bronze Poisson, Mermillod-Blondin and W-Champs SG silver De Tessieres.
Other interesting names: UK's hope Crawford and Baldwin, who's found several top10 finish here in Chile; Slovenia's Perko and Sporn
Men's Downhill 2
Josef Ferstl doubled the succes, followed by his countryman Andreas Strodl who hasn't competed since 2011.
France scored a good team-result: Theaux was 3rd, Clarey 5th, Bertrand just behind, while Fayed, Poisson, Mermillod-Blondin and De Tessieres ended inside the top 20. Roger didn't race.
Good 4th place for combined specialist Zrncic-Dim and the two Britons both in the top 10
Women's Downhill 1
Swiss team makes big thing from the start placing all the atlethes in the top 10.
4th placed Joana Haehlen is the only new name, she has never raced
in WC, some good placements in European Cup and couple of medals at the Junior Champs.
Good 3rd place for Slovenian Stuhec, and two Russian novice Yakovishina 10th followed by her countrywoman Bedareva, both class '92.
All Ferk and Brodnik from Slovenia and Weirather from Liechtenstein finished inside the top 20.
Women's Downhill 2
Switzerland still dominating. Gut didn't take part as well as Weirather.
Another top 10 finish for Stuhec and Yakovishina while Bedareva was 11th again.
Gisin showed great appreciation for La Parva on her blog, even though internet and news have some difficulties to make their way up there.
Day 2 at the world championships, and men in action.
This slope is not the same of ladies's one, for speed events.
Again, though, it's an easy one, without very hard section nor jumps... being wide many course can be set and course setting might be the key given it'll be done by Norvegian and Svindal's coach.
Last year's race isn't relevant. Late season race, with "rotten" snow, that early displayed mark. Low starting bibs were advantaged: 1st Innerhofer #8, 2nd Pinturault #5, 3rd Hirscher #2 (in one of his rare SG race), 4th Marsaglia #7.
Svindal is the big favoured and men to beat. He is SG Cup leader, in four SGs this season won three and made a second place.
Super-G is a strange discipline because it's a speed event but there are no time trial, there's a race inspection but you can't try gates at a race-like speed, so it's much about improvisation, it can be said you must know how to ski to compete in a Super-G. And actually Svindal know how to ski.
Behind Svindal there's Innerhofer. Beside being defending World Champion, and last year winner on this slope I don't give him so many chanches. He is in great shape but he may not like the snow conditions.
3rd favourite in Norway's no.2 Jansrud. Again he could be advantaged by the course setting (by his coach), but again he's been below the expectations so far in this season. He's often near the podium but no major results.
I see Reichelt as possible outsider. His raising form, the ability of austrian team in setting the skis (there will be different kind of snow on the course, I think only eskimos have a word to describe it all). He's one who can possibly put together all the technical elements needed in this race.
From the first group:
Klotz, is in good form but it's not a top racer.
Theaux, I like him, his aggressivity, but I don't trust him on this snow, sensibility more than angles will be required today.
Heel, about him I'd say the same of Theaux, though I think he's more overall skilled, I won't trust him but he's able of anything.
Mayer, being austrian, can be a possible outsider. And so could be for Streitberger and Baumann who, though, had a bad season... Championships focus for them? Who knows.
On this kind of snow canadians must be kept in high considerations.
Although their skills among turns aren't good enough there's their key racer Guay who's one of those able to give something more in important events.
And then there's Kostelic, who comes from three podiums in a row in three different disciplines: Slalom and Super-Combined in Kitz, and the city event in Moscow.
The croatian looks to be the one in the best shape, and although Super-G isn't his favourite discipline a good condition and confidence can drive to a good result, thing that actually happened in Garmish when Kostelic who the bronze medal in Super-G following that terrific january.
h2h Streitberger - Theaux - pick Streitberger 3 units @2.02Lost -3
I don't really trust Streitberger, but I think Theaux won't like this snow conditions. -7
It's very disappointing to see a whole season work and "return of investmenst" to disappear in just two days.
Anyway there's to be happy for the analysis that were corrects.
Super-G podium on the Planai:
1) Ligety (USA), 2) De Tessieres (Fra), 3) Svindal (Nor)
The course was set like a real Super-Giant, so no surprise to see on the podium two Giant-Slalom specialist like Ligety and frenchmen De Tessieres. These two outsiders kicked my two "men" Reichelt and Mayer off the podium.
No excuses, both Ligety and De Tessieres made a great run and deserved their placements. Svindal recorded many "green" intermediate times but in the final section a little loss of balance and control resulted in a wider line and a loss of speed causing the 3rd placement.
De Tessieres displays the widest smile as he shouldn't neither race; GdT was the reserve of the french team, and only Clarey injury let him be in. As he said to Eurosport:
"Five days ago, I was down in the dumps at home. Unfortunately, Johan got injured. It's an odd feeling. But I really meant to do well, I was eager"
No large smiles in two teams. Austria and Italy arrived with a great condition and great expectations.
Both came back withouth medals.
Austria still with no medals after the two Super-Gs. As Infostrada sport tweeted:
Team Austria has had at least one medallist in the men's Super G race in 7 of the last 8 world championships.
While Italy achieve the worst result of this season in Super-G: Innerhofer, 7th, couldn't defend Garmisch's golden medal; Marsaglia second in Super-G Cup Standing was 20th; and Heel was 22th
Video of the three best runs: Ligety, De Tessieres (at 1:47 min), Svindal (at 3:16 min, pay attention at 4:49)
The long weekend in Wengen opens with a Super-Combined event, which is made by a downhill and only one run of slalom.
After the downhill the start list of the slalom is made from dh top 30 reversed (first start 30th placed of the dh, then 29th... down to 1st placed, after this also athletes out of top30 take the start, a win from these is much unlikely to happen)
It's the first of only two Combined in this season's calendar, next one (last one) is next weekend in Kitzbuhel.
Only one run of slalom makes those who prefer downhill big favored anyway...
h2h Svindal - Ligety - pick Ligety 1 unit @3.28Lost -1
Big opportunity for Svindal to get some important points for the World Cup as current leader Hirscher is not racing in this event.
Anyway Ligety can suffer little damages in the dowhill and take the start in the slalom with a good number (from 15-20 I think) and make a good run.
While Svindal, who's not a slolom specialist, will take the start with one of the last number and run on a ruined slope and to take care of scoring points he'll probably go down very carefully
h2h Marsaglia - Innerhoffer - pick Marsaglia 1 unit @3.01Lost -1
Small stake on the young Marsaglia, who's started his career as specialist of the combined.
Recently he's focused more on speed events like Downhill and Super-G reducing the gap between him and Innerhoffer.
h2h Raich - Jansrud - pick Raich 2 units @2.62Won +3.24
Too bad odds are much more high now.
Anyway I think Combined is the only event where Raich can hope in some big results. He hardly finishes out of the top 10.
Jansrud is a great downhiller but lacks in slalom, I hope he'll use this event like an additional training for the true Dowhill race of saturday
h2h Jansrud - Pinturault - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.70Won +2.1
Pinturault it's the best slalom specialist racing this one.
He's also decent enough in speed disciplines, and I think his team is working on him to make him compete for the Cup in the future, so combined is a good starting point and test to see his attitudes.
h2h Paris - Puchner - pick Paris 2 units @1.62Won +1.24
I don't know how's Puchner in slalom, I think not good like most of downhill racer.
Paris is quite good in Combined, great in downhill and decent enough in slalom
+6.08
Bit lucky for Jansrud lost a ski while he was doing a good slalom run, he was close to beat Raich.
Decent Slalom also from Paris.
Very bad Svindal who's lost the little slalol-skills he had years ago.
Pinturault is too strong in slalom also for Kostelic by now.
Very rich calendar this weekend, and also following next week.
Men Super-G - Val Gardena h2h Theaux - Guay - pick Theaux 2 units @3.11win +4.22
Although he's very constant in his results, above all in this very slope, Erik Guay seems to be missing something that prevent him from very big results, recently. He's not at his best among turns, while long flat sections are his natural enviroment. So a Super-G doesn't suit hime too much.
Theaux showed lots of improvements in past season, and confirmed that with a 2nd place in the Super-G of Lake Louise.
h2h Gut - Goergl - pick Goergl 3 units @2.12lost -3
Starting number: Gut #2, Goergl #19.
Explanation of this odds is: they where expecting a storm or something so Gut starting early could avoid it.
But
So Gut will race almost blindly, while Goergl will have reports from racer who've completed the race before her start.
Goergl made better time in both time-trial.
