Results of Sat 7/12 and American swing recap

Got a day short in posting and betting.
So this post will be a bit obsolete, but anyway...

Opposing the US didn't work, they actually showed signs of improvements in saturday's downhill and peaked yeasterday with Vonn finishing 5th in super-g.
The most disappointing thing of the weekend was skipping all the bets on Weirather after friday's lost ones. For the second DH there were the same odds in Weirather - Fenninger h2h market, and likely there were also for the SG.
Men's double was lost by just .02s thanks to a big run of Jansrud.

Weekend turn from profit to a 1.2 units lost and a ROI of -2.85%

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Season finally getting on the heart: there will be races every weekend, but above all the fight for the standings is flareing up as contenders becoming more defined.

Ladies. Gut held on her WC lead on a course not suitable for her, runnind defensively in the two DHs and hit ting as soon as she could winning the SG.
Maria Riesch rose to the 2nd position, she easily dominated the DHs, but a big mistake in the SG prevented her from another solid placement. Being a top competitor also in slalom potentially she's winning big points in every event (super-combis and city-events included), she's now favourite to win the Crystal Globe.
Tied in third place Weirather and Fenninger are solid competitors, they are skiing at Gut's level and it's just a matter of time before they step on the top of the podium.
I'll limited the field of competitors to them. Maze and Shiffrin are more than 100 points behind Weirather/Fenninger, I'm about to rule them out with different reasons: Maze, as I said before, centered her summer preparation on the Olympics so she'll probably float mid-standing for another while, if form will eventually come she could have a Kostelic-like month although the lot of competitors has grown tougher in every discipline -hard task. Shiffrin runs for the win in slalom and giant-slalom, but though her regularity of results it's only two disciplines against Gut/Weirather/Fenninger's three and Riesch's four.

On men's side it's Svindal vs Hirsher again but with another character coming on the scene. Ted Ligety somehow increased the gap dividing him from the chasers in giant-slalom, and with solid super-gs and slaloms he could become an unexpected guest in the Cup fight.

Other interesting features: Bode and Vonn coming back, Janka and Jansrud as well.
Super-G surprise by Kueng (first Swiss win in centuries) and Otmar Striedinger
Italian speed team great form and GS team disaster, while France GS and speed are to be put back into perspective.

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Fri - 06/12 - Betting Beaver Creek and Lake Louise DHs

I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.

Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.



I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.

I went crazy with the ladies.

I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.

From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.

Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.

On to the head to heads.

Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.

Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.

Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team)  is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.

Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.

The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.

Alpine skiing - quick recap after season opening and 1/2 American swing - part 1 ladies

Back blogging; I have few thoughts to write down about what's happening on the World Cup. A decent amount of races already completed some trending becoming evident.

Maze doesn't amaze anymore

Unrecognisable in giant-slalom and in super-g where she showed some lethargic movements, a little sparkle came with a 3rd place in Levi's slalom.

She's collected just 130 points and is 7th placed in the Cup standing.

My humble opinion is: she's aiming the Olympics, her form will come later this season.

This and Vonn still out make the fight for the Crystal Globe interesting. Although some young guns are make it interesting anyway.

Young guns: Gut, Shiffrin, Weirather

The hot names of the moment.

Gut is finally proving her talent. Three wins on the first three races and a solid lead in the Overall Standing, then out during the first run of the GS... she's still kind of unbeaten so far.
Shiffrin won the opening slalom starting the new season from where she left, but as proof of her growing up there's her first GS podium. In very short she'll rule both technical disciplines -Hirsher teaches that they're enough to win the Globe, do your math.
Weirather more than a Tina 2 looks like Gut's double, they trains together indeed. Technically speaking Tina is less aggressive on turns than Gut but has better flat sections. 3rd place in Beaver's GS was her first podium in that discipline, made even greater by the fact she was bib #29, so she's lot to work on her Starting List.

Team talk: US, Norway.

The aspect that probably most intrigues me of this sport it's the [with Gandalf voice - it sounds a bit philosophical and I had a teacher who... long story, nevermind] duality Team-Athlete: it's true that you're on your own out on the slope, but that is just a drop in the sea of training either on slopes and in gyms (plus other pre-season exercises like running and cycling), all shared with teammates. So when you leave the starting gate you put on course your individual value, your liking or disliking the slope, the course setting, other mental factors and so on, but beside this there's a big slice of the pie made by training, which is the same for you and your teammates. It's not uncommon seeing few flags of the same nation gathering at some point of the final standing of a race.
For example tennis is individual, and training is individual too. Pro-tennis players have their own staff and there aren't groups of players with similar trends. Yet Errani and Vinci since they started working together showed "similar" progress and reached their career best rank almost at the same time.
All this to say that I love talk teams.

US have to thank Shiffrin, who all alone saved the USskiteam on home soil from what looked like a Little Bighorn. Although she has to be considered more by herself than as part of a team -sorry, Resi!-, where US really team-up is in fast disciplines: Vonn and Mancuso are top racers while Smith, Ross and Cook are solid teammate worth of top10 placements. The best this bunch has done is Cook's 19th place in DH.

The most probable explanation to this is their preparation that has to be centered on the Olympics, this would be typical of the US above all of Mancuso: she better performs on biggest stages like Olympics or World Champs than on tours stages - she's won more Olympics medal than Vonn, to say.

Opposite form is showed by the Norway team, or Vikings as they're nicknamed. Actually they're not at the very top but this is a young team and after few years passed fighting for a top30 placement now they're finding the top10 with some continuity.
Ragnhild Mowinckel was the one showing the greater improvement, previous to her 8th place in Beaver's GS she scored great results in some "warm-up" events held in Copper Mountain. Almost all those events were won by Lotte Sejersted, on the World Cup satges she probably was the most disappointing though, with only a 10th place in Super-G.
The elder Loeseth, Nina, was 12th in Beaver's GS backing her 7th place achieved in Levi. She's recorded a 1st and a 3rd place in two Nor-Am GS kept this week.
The younger Loeseth, Mona, remained in the old continent competiting in European Cup record a win and a 4th place in GS and a win and a 2nd place in SL.

Other team worth mentioning are Swiss (+ Weirather), with solid team either in fast and tech disciplines, and Canada.

Thumb up for the new Raptor course