Davis Cup and WTA

Perhaps my best day ever of trading yesterday, if not for the gain at least because I liked what I was doing and I had a neat feeling of what was happening in those matches.

Started the day with Kukushkin - Hajek.
Kukushkin had a break point (that remained the only one in the match for Kukushkin) early in the first set, Hajek saved it but odds flipped over and Hajek went at 2.1.
But then Hajek took the lead and was in commanding position in every rally: his price and what was going on didn't match. I backed him.
Hajek won the first set and the second, at this point I removed the liabilities, just in case...
Anything happened and Hajek scored the first point for the Czechs.
I'm happy that I let it run, it's kind of a first for me, usually I green up and go off, this time I stayed there and decided that Hajek wasn't about to choke.

Golubev - Rosol was different.
Rosol is still bearing the title of Nadal-killer although he hasn't done anything so good since then, he opened at 1.6.
Golubev, though, was unbeaten in Davis Cup when playing in Astana.
Golubev's first set was impressive, he was playing terrifically, but great help came from Rosol poor receive (4/24 receiving points won) and unforced errors: many aggressive forehands went long.
Backed Golubev and closed the trade as he won the set.
Second set showed that Golubev made a great effort to win the first set, and he wasn't able to keep it up anymore, this united to the fact that Rosol went up to 3 made me back Rosol.
The set stayed on serve until Golubev went to serve down 5-4, and his tension was palpable. He was broken and Rosol tied it 1-set-all.
Into third set Golubev gave no sign of a recovery, and I let my trade run.
Rosol won the set and went down to 1.1.
Here was my only fault of the day as I sensed the match wasn't done.
I could have greened up, but instead I only took off the liabilities.
Golubev had a pride impulse, and although his game was not as bright as in the first set he fought more and also got a break of advantage.
Here I started to frenzy and felt like I was losing something and rushed trying to "recover the green I'd had, if I...".
Smarter move was laying Golubev at 1.09 serving for the set on the set winner market, again tension caught him, and he was broken. I rarely play something other than the match winner, and I'm very happy with this from me.
Rosol raised at 6-5* and this time I went for equal green on both set and match market.
Rosol won the set, he hasn't been so good though, and he doesn't even shows that sparkle that some players have when playing Davis Cup.

This morning I got into a rerun Vogele - Wozniacki: Woz is still the same (I'd say hopeless), but Vogele is a good player, she hits hard the ball from both side, even though I think she prefers her backhand as sometimes she turns around to hit with it.

Nothing for this afternoon: day of doubles for the Davis Cup, while matches start later in Charleston.

Next week it's going to be an intense one with the red clay season beginning and moving toward Europe for both men, in Casablanca, and the newborn Katowice for the ladies.

 

Charleston WTA - R16

Some matches with drama but only two underdog winning: Bouchard beated Robson, and Burdette beated Lisicki. Both Robson and Lisicki are in questionable form and I'm not surprised about these results.

In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :

• The price of Mattek-Sands is too short for me, I explain it by the fact BMS upsetted Stephens as underdog; Keys is a powerful baseliner, I think she'll win most of the long rallies. 
• Petkovic after her comeback is still struggling to win two matches in a row; on the other hand Wozniacki has been put back into perspective by some results as the early loss against Muguruza in Miami. I think also here the odds don't reflect the real values of the two players

Same kick-off time for these two, I'm not sure which one I'll live-trade.

• I don't know Vogele, while I hardly trust Goerges: her offensive style grants her either many winners or many unforced errors and I find it hard to predict.
• Serena-Burdette... As I wrote after the first round Serena didn't look much interested, it may worth a lay
• Pegula is the biggest surprise of this tournament coming through two rounds of the qualies, and then Muguruza and Barthel. She's good reasons to be tired after 5 matches but she's rested yesterday. Also tired because of the two dramatic previous rounds could be Jankovic. This could be an interesting match to trade, I think momentum will switch many times, I'm quite sure its going to be a three setter. 
• A bit short the odds on Lepchenko otherwise I'd fancy to pick her. I don't trust Venus too much.
• Safarova isn't in a good period, she had 4 consecutive loss before this week, she's been runner-up last year, though. Cirstea on the other hand is having a great season, and this green clay I think is a good surface for her, halfway between the most common clay and hard, she might pull the upset.
• Also Bouchard is having a great season showing great improvements, she's into the R16 coming from the qualies. Stosur this season has been just average, not too bad not too good, being her one of the big name I'd expected odds more short though, and in that case I'd have picked Bouchard.

All this said... I won't pick anything pre-match and just monitorate it all live.