Friday, March 15, 2013

Season's finals - Lenzerheide - part 2

Dull start for this final week of the season with races cancelled in both days and the small Globes of Downhill and Super-G went undisputed (?). Undisputed from a sport point of view.
For the media the dispute is wide open for obvious reason since as in 2011 (2011's finals where in Lenzerheide, while in 2012 got moved to Schladming as test for this year's World Cup) Crystal Globes are assigned on Mother Nature's will. Bigger shock back in 2011 when Hoefl-Risch won the Overall Globe by just 3 points on Vonn (afterward might be said it was a great shock for her too, as she's got worse and although the big experience she's having dodgy results, the thing comes clear seing all her DNF in slalom).
Rule book and venues are to be revised.
Close pattern.

To sum up.
Nothing changed in those standings.
Svindal wins Downhill and Super-G globes; racing hardly would have changed things but... But Svindal loses the Overall, and this is very bad for the rest of the week loses his thrill too. Imagine Svindal winning in both DH and SG (he was big favorite so that wasn't far from happening), scoring 200 points... Giant-Slalom and Slalom would have taken a much different look, Hirscher against all odds has never failed a Slalom but so did also Neureuther until last week.

Maze wins the Super-G. Nothing to do for Mancuso, the comeback looked quit impossible though.
But Maze loses the Downhill 1 single point behind the injured Vonn. An hard blow to her flawless season.

What now?...
Today the Team event, the dual slalom, mix teams, nothing to be assigned... yes, a TV and promotional/marketing event.
Then from tomorrow the technical disciplines only ladies' slalom globe to be assigned.

Schedule's order:

Saturday

Men's Giant-Slalom
Run 1 at 9.00 CET - Run 2 at 11.30 CET


1
Ted
Ligety
USA
620
2
Marcel
Hirscher
AUT
495
3
Manfred
Moelgg
ITA
275
4
Alexis
Pinturault
FRA
266
5
Felix
Neureuther
GER
232
6
Aksel Lund
Svindal
NOR
229
7
Thomas
Fanara
FRA
191
8
Marcus
Sandell
FIN
168
9
Fritz
Dopfer
GER
166
10
Davide
Simoncelli
ITA
151
11
Ivica
Kostelic
CRO
140
12
Benjamin
Raich
AUT
127
13
Philipp
Schoerghofer
AUT
126
14
Christoph
Noesig
AUT
125
15
Massimiliano
Blardone
ITA
124
16
Marcel
Mathis
AUT
121
17
Stefan
Luitz
GER
100
18
Steve
Missillier
FRA
100
19
Hannes
Reichelt
AUT
98
20
Kjetil
Jansrud
NOR
95
21
Didier
Defago
SUI
92
22
Cyprien
Richard
FRA
88
23
Leif Kristian
Haugen
NOR
84
24
Florian
Eisath
ITA
73
25
Mathieu
Faivre
FRA
71

















Always of the thought odds so low deserve a lay, even when it's Ted Ligety in a Giant-Slalom.
Pinturault is closer to the top 2 than odds suggest.

Ladies' Slalom
Run 1 at 10.00 CET - Run 2 at 12.30 CET
1
Tina
Maze
SLO
595
2
Mikaela
Shiffrin
USA
588
3
Veronika
Zuzulova Velez
SVK
471
4
Frida
Hansdotter
SWE
435
5
Tanja
Poutiainen
FIN
354
6
Maria
Pietilae-Holmner
SWE
308
7
Wendy
Holdener
SUI
289
8
Maria
Riesch Hoefl
GER
279
9
Kathrin
Zettel
AUT
267
10
Michaela
Kirchgasser
AUT
206
11
Lena
Duerr
GER
192
12
Bernadette
Schild
AUT
183
13
Erin
Mielzynski
CAN
177
14
Nicole
Hosp
AUT
175
15
Nathalie
Eklund
SWE
160
16
Therese
Borssen
SWE
150
17
Marie-Michele
Gagnon
CAN
143
18
Irene
Curtoni
ITA
130
19
Christina
Geiger
GER
127
20
Anna
Swenn-Larsson
SWE
127
21
Nina
Loeseth
NOR
115
22
Sarka
Zahrobska
CZE
109
23
Carmen
Thalmann
AUT
102
24
Laurie
Mougel
FRA
87
25
Alexandra
Daum
AUT
82
















Maze and Shiffrin for the small Globe.
Odds much fair here, Maze slight fav for winning last Slalom, while Shiffrin showed signs of a crack.
With those big odds Gagnon and Holdener may worth a little shot, although it's hard to understand how much their placements of last stage were due to a real peak shape rather than the strange condition of Ofterschwang.



Sunday

Men's Slalom
Run 1 at 9.00 CET - Run 2 at 11.30 CET
1
Marcel
Hirscher
AUT
880
2
Felix
Neureuther
GER
616
3
Andre
Myhrer
SWE
482
4
Ivica
Kostelic
CRO
475
5
Manfred
Moelgg
ITA
309
6
Fritz
Dopfer
GER
288
7
Jens
Byggmark
SWE
274
8
Mario
Matt
AUT
269
9
Alexis
Pinturault
FRA
264
10
Reinfried
Herbst
AUT
197
11
Mattias
Hargin
SWE
178
12
Manfred
Pranger
AUT
171
13
Stefano
Gross
ITA
170
14
Patrick
Thaler
ITA
160
15
Ted
Ligety
USA
143
16
Giuliano
Razzoli
ITA
138
17
Markus
Larsson
SWE
131
18
Steve
Missillier
FRA
126
19
Benjamin
Raich
AUT
118
20
Naoki
Yuasa
JPN
114
21
David
Chodounsky
USA
105
22
Henrik
Kristoffersen
NOR
98
23
Jean-Baptiste
Grange
FRA
92
24
Markus
Vogel
SUI
82
25
Cristian
Deville
ITA
81



















Nothing wrong, Hirscher has won 5 of 9 slaloms this season, but under the even in the discipline where there's the highest probability to go out it's always worth of a lay.
Neurether has been close to Hirscher for the whole season, Matt has found a good shape in this final part, Kostelic won last slalom although he is always given as finished, Pinturault can win everything if he draws the good day.


Ladies' Giant-Slalom
Run 1 at 10.00 CET - Run 2 at 12.30 CET

1
Tina
Maze
SLO
700
2
Anna
Fenninger
AUT
435
3
Kathrin
Zettel
AUT
382
4
Viktoria
Rebensburg
GER
361
5
Tessa
Worley
FRA
303
6
Maria
Riesch Hoefl
GER
213
7
Irene
Curtoni
ITA
193
8
Frida
Hansdotter
SWE
180
9
Jessica
Lindell-Vikarby
SWE
172
10
Dominique
Gisin
SUI
170
11
Julia
Mancuso
USA
154
12
Lara
Gut
SUI
153
13
Michaela
Kirchgasser
AUT
153
14
Eva-Maria
Brem
AUT
152
15
Stefanie
Koehle
AUT
148
16
Elisabeth
Goergl
AUT
124
17
Lindsey C.
Kildow Vonn
USA
114
18
Anemone
Marmottan
FRA
113
19
Mikaela
Shiffrin
USA
110
20
Denise
Karbon
ITA
109
21
Tanja
Poutiainen
FIN
106
22
Ana
Drev
SLO
104
23
Marie-Michele
Gagnon
CAN
104
24
Nadia
Fanchini
ITA
104
25
Taina
Barioz
FRA
89



















Maze has widely dominated this disciplines.
However I think her success has been built in that 4 consecutive wins at the beginning of the season.
Remember the change of the skis, with the new radius of turn, and being the best overall, the right, or even perfect, mix of technic and power was the big difference between her and the rest of the field.
She was mastering the new skis, while the other were at the mercy of the skis, and Maze was winning both runs giving the impressions she wasn't even pushing.
As season went on the margin got reduced.
Maze hasn't won last 5 (3rd once, then 4 2nd place in a row).
Odds on Fenninger and Worley are too low for me though, they are the major danger, Rebensburg and Riesch are too much up-and-downs.