Tue 28/01 - Men's Slalom Schladming (night race)

Big event for Schladming night race, although there's no Yuasa (no party!)

Two early surprise are Kristoffersen and Thaler entering the first group, first time for both. Worth to notice they are kind of the youngest and the oldest athlete on course.
Kostelic and Moelgg drop off the top7, things could possibly go even worse as beside the lack of shape they've never performed well on ruined courses.

Hirscher should have learnt the lesson from Kitz, and if he wants to win the Globe he must not fail here; this means he must be less aggressive and take the 80-60 points of the 2nd-3rd place rather than get out.
Neureuther, free from all these issues, can just ski for the final victory and has proved more than once that his level is equal to Hirscher's.
Behind them Kristoffersen and Thaler battle for a step of the podium, Pinturault occasinally joins them; Matt, Myhrer and Hargin don't look on the same level but they can always be dangerous.
Dopfer's shape raised recently could worth backing him (though not at current prices) and also Gross in in good shape.
Moelgg and Kostelic among those might be worth opposing.
My picks:

Sat 25/01 - Kitzbuehel and Cortina(2) Downhills

Another good day yesterday, winning all the head to heads. Actually, I haven't seen what happened in slalom's run2 - I know it was strange, although not as strange as run1 setted by Papa Kostelic.
Feeling is that Hargin's peak form is either gone, or rather faded, or it's still there (he's stil a top performer) but he's bearing in his mind what happened in Adelboden when he couldn't hold the lead and dropped to 4th in the second run.

On to today's DHs - the biggest events of the tours.

I think anything could happen in Kitz. But for the most part Bode looks like the one who should win (my humble opininion: Bode came back more for winning Kitz than for the Olympics). Svindal maybe his the best physical power and endurance -key elements on this long course. Reichelt's form has raised recently and so Kueng's. Last year winner, Paris, had problems getting back in shape after his crash in december, hardly he'll defend his title.

On ladies side Hoefl-Riesch is the one to beat, her form is terrific at the moment and she's in full run for the Cup.
Behind her the same lot: Fenninger, Weirather and Goergl.
I had good impressions from Mancuso yesterday, and I'm backing her today, she's getting closer and closer to the top, and so is the whole US team: almost every one scored a season best yesterday.
So I'm picking Leanne Smith over Marchand-Arvier: the frenchwoman lost the whole pre-season and came back to race only few weekends ago, all the missing time is sensible seeing her racing.
Also backing Merighetti, on her favourite course; I know Schmidhofer (bib #39) was 3rd yesterday but I think condition changed a bit for late starters: young US Jakie Wiles (bib #41) was 15th (first WC points for her) and Hungarian Miklos (bib #45) was 18th tied with Slovenian Ferk (bib #38)  

Fri 24/01 - Kitzbuehel men's slalom and Cortina ladies' downhill 1

The most important weekend of men's tour kicks off with the slalom. This is kind of special also because run 1 will be at 12 while run 2 at 17, big gap between the two runs. Note that run 2 will be a night run (watch out for Yuasa)

Pick from ladies' SG was a winner: Schmidhofer 16th finished more or less were I expected her, Ruiz-Castillo made me panic scoring the best intermediate time at Int1, but then she was awful and finished 30th.
Goergl won confirming her good form, and so Hoefl-Riesch close behind and getting more and more close to the Cup; good third place for Nici Hosp.
Maze and Mancuso looked in better shape, and so american Cook; on the other hand Gut, 19th, in falling down almost vertically.

On to men's picks.
Kristoffersen, though he'll start with a worse bib in run 1, is performing better than Moelgg.
Hargin and Neureuther are closer to their opponents than odds suggest. I think Hargin is in great form and that the bad result in Wengen was because of the snow conditions, that didn't let him ski aggressively as he does.
 

St. Moritz and Val d'Isere - the results

This weeked has been a disaster, and feelings are even more mixed because picks weren't actually so wrong and everything could have turned the other way in a blink.

Conceptually-lost bets were the two on Fenninger, and Pranger to podium.
All the others were good.
Deville was (and I think will be in the future) shite finishing 26th, I don't know what happened to Pranger as I haven't seen run1 (ladies' one too) but he should be better than that.
Anyway Val d'Isere is madness: lots of racers ousted, Hirscher made a mistake too and couldn't qualify...
Can't find a common thread for this slalom, sure thing is that you can't "attack" on this hill, but just be calm and clean, experience I think helped as the runner-up Hargin ,28 yo, is the youngest in the top10, and he stepped on podium with Matt and Thaler, 34 and 35 respectively.

Biggest disappointment was Gagnon. 5th after the first leg, in the second was doing equally good, but when 5-6 gates away from the finish line, she fell down wasting a good chance to step on podium. Anyway she's getting closer to it, at this kind of odds might worth keep backing her.
Also Brignone crashed, in the first leg though. Anyway she was about half a second in front of Riesch. Riesch was eventually 11th, and it sorts of confirms that GS is her worst discipline, with possibilities of opposing her as bookies could overrate her at it.
Tessa Worley wins big scoring the best times in both runs.
Lindell-Vikarby is on her level and increases her lead in GS-standing.
Maze found back a good way to ski, her movements didn't look slow as in previous races.

Men' Slalom - Zagreb 06/01

h2h Hirscher - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @2.50 Lost -2
To me between this two is 50-50, maybe 60-40 in Hirscher's favour, so this is a good odd.
Both won in here in the past two years and in general this slope suite to the swedish team due to some flat sections.
I also think that now that Hirscher is closer to Svindall in the overall standing he's going to slow down a little and take less risks to complete the race and gain points.

h2h Yuasa - Hargin - pick Hargin 6 units @1.83 Won +4.98
Many reasons for this pick, so a preatty heavy stake.
Hargin will start with a better number: and in men's race the slope will be more ruined than in ladies's one, Yuasa can't be aggressive as he usually is.
Hargin made 3rd place two years ago, and made 7th place in two other occasions, as said before this slope suite to the swedish team.
Yuasa's 3rd place in last SL in Madonna di Campiglio has been a one off, an hat-trick Yuasa makes under some conditions of the slope and in night races, like that one and Schlamding, which are very similar.
Hargin can easily beat Yuasa as the japanese is very faulty and apart from very few races doesn't often break the top 20.

h2h Valencic - Kristoffensen - pick Kristoffensen 1 unit @2.15 Won +1.15
Big difference in the starting bib in Valencic's favour, 17 and 32.
The young norvegian though always start with similar bib. He is doing well also in European Cup while the same can't be said for Valencic who's doing average, with no sign of improvement.

h2h Byggmark - Kostelic - pick Kostelic 1 unit @2.10 Won +1.1
Byggmark will start with the n.1, meaning the slope will e in perfect condition, Kostelic is n.4 so not much behind.
Kostelic is in a bad shape and his knee hurt, though his non-aggressive style could be useful on this kind of snow, that has even got wet by rain.

h2h Neureuther - Pinturault - pick Neureuther 2 units @1.76 Won +1.52
Here starting bib in Neureuther's favour, 6 vs 14.
The german is in great shape with 2nd places in last two Slaloms and the win in the City Event.
Pinturault although winner in Val d'Isere, in some strange conditions, hasn't done anything else that good.

+6.75