I tried to figure out something about ladies Super-G but I came out with nothing.
As seen so far all the events of alpine skiing have been quite crazy, with all the favourites (but Hoefl-Riesch in ladies combined) flopping big and outsiders popping up everywhere.
That's all about this kind of events, where all that matter is being in one of the top three placements, so everyone push to 100% and the space between a big performance and a failure is very narrow, and failure in alpine skiing is also a line just 1 meter wider that results in few cents of second loss.
Only safe statement about what has happened so far is: "team Switzerland is in excellent form".
And Swiss have few good arrows to shoot in ladies SG: Gut, Gisin and Suter.
Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Fenninger, Mancuso, Hosp among the others, while Goergl seems to be not liking this snow- she's always dangerous though-, Weirather is in the starting list but her forms should be vary bad after an injury in training that had her missing the downhill, same for Gagnon and Rebensburg -always struggling with health issues.
Opposing these last names is all I advice. With spring-time temperature an early starter winner is much possible, I'm not doing any specific name though as it didn't pay so far (I haven't posted the outcome of ladies DH, a bit late eh?):
Results form the two downhills, a little 1.8u profit.
Fanchini crashed, it was a strange crash after a jump but not on the landing, her run was too short to be commented.
Maze, though, made a good run and was 2nd behind Kaufmann-Abderalden at her 1st career victory. Swiss team was all over placing also Weirather (not Swiss but training with them) Aufdenblatten and Gisin in the top10. Gut was 25th and Suter 17th, and this says much about the characteristics of this slope: it's quite easy, all that matters is being fast, there are few key passages which you have to prepare so to come out of them with the right direction and speed.
Val Gardena's downhill as expected was a question between Canada and Norway, placing a combined of 5 athletes in the top 10. Guay won in front of Jansrud and Clarey.
Picks for sunday's Giant-Slaloms
In short:
Shiffrin was slow in her last slalom, it could be the physical preparation.
Brignone looked good before going out in last GS. She even finished in the top30 in super-g meaning she's in good shape.
Maze was 2nd in DH but I'm still doubtful on technical disciplines.
In men's GS I'm opposing Simoncelli and Rychard for the same motivations: they're in a falling phase and the change of ski radius last season emphasized this fall.
Same could be said for Blardone, anyway Dopfer isn't too brilliant at the moment and I don't trust him on a single at a low price, so put it in a double with Raich which should beat Olsson, but again the price is too low.
Nani - Luitz is a tough head to head between two raising youngster, anyway to me Luitz is like a one-event-man (Val d'Isere) while Nani is doing good everywhere.
Both ladies and men are up to downhills today. Sun is shining on both venues, that marks a big differences compared to mid-week trainings that were done either on snow or fog, included yesterday's men's super-g which had good 30 seconds of the course wrapped in a thick fog.
I don't remember Val d'Isere course, also because in the past the slope changed for the World Championships but I can't say in what year changed as well.
Val Gardena's Saslong, on the other hand has always been the same, the course it's "easy" but its easiness makes it hard to recover from mistakes, even little ones. Characteristics of this slope are the humps and jumps and its bulging ground.
Italians, although "at home", don't like this slope and use to perform badly, opposing them would be a goog move.
Canadians and Vikings -they also share radio reports- have a good tradition here. Last year US Steve Nyman won with an high number as he started with improved weather conditions and visibility.
Anyway I couldn't find any bettable selection for in men's DH, all pick are from ladies' one:
Elena Fanchini is among the most consistent downhillers (with Weirather and Fenninger) so far, showing great performances on all kind of conditions. Gut and Riesch have their favourite kinds of slope, technical and tough the first flat and easy the latter; Vonn seems back but I keep doubt on her shape; same for Maze whose shape still not the best.
Surprised to see Fanchini underdog vs Maze, and that price for the podium with so many doubts around those "above" her.
Picked Aufdenblatten on Suter as I rate Suter more like a Super-G-er than a downhiller, opposite consideration for Aufdenblatten. Low expectation on this anyway since both aren't consistent and could be either black or white.
I was totally wrong abut Goergl, underrating her. She's doing great in Super-G while Suter is performing below her standards at the moment.
Weirather confirms her good shape.
Riesch goes behind Gut by just .01s... aaargh, it was a juicy price.
Right impressions about both courses: St.Moritz is average for SG, speed little prevail on tech. Val d'Isere is strange, unconventional GS, lots of DNFs etc... that Ligety has won here only once says it all.
On to next races:
Lindell-Vikarby - Fenninger was taken earlier this week, thinking the price was wrong, odds have changed now proving my thought right. Also fancying Fenninger to win, with Wairather's win in super-g, now Anna is the one without wins of the three that are dominating this season. Technically she's improved a lot and she's got the skills to do better than others in the flat sections of this slope.
I haven't liked Worley this season till today, 9th in SG. She seems to have a great feeling with St. Moritz, she's got a 1st and a 3rd place in GS here, she's got a far better starting bib than Pietilae-Holmner, 6 to 18 so I see value in that price.
Brignone is improving, she's recovering the time off for injury and little by little could go back to the top position of GS, Hoefl-Riesch has a weak point in GS perhaps her worst discipline.
Long shot picking Gagnon for the podium, the canadian girl is in great shape and scoring good placements everywhere. Got a 1st place in a Nor-Am GS with other WC-level skiers (Zettel, Brem to name few).
Few picks in men's slalom, also given the easiness they're falling on this slope.
Pranger is one of the few to have a rilevant history on the "Bellevarde": Gold medal at the World Championships in 2009, while last year was 2nd after run1 but made a little mistake and finished 6th.
Deville is on his falling phase of his career and hardly reaches the top20.
World Cup back in Europe
Ladies in St.Moritz: saturday a Super-G, sunday a giant-slalom
Men in Val d'Isere: giant-slalom on saturday, slalom on sunday
Footnote of a post from last year: "In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS. In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well steep... strange comebacks in run2" Val d'Isere last year was thrilling. Local hero Pinturalt scored his first WC win in the night slalom, it was special because he won a slalom before winning in giant-slalom, his favourite discipline. In giant-slalom Hirsher won in front of Luitz and Ligety. Scandal was Ligety not winning, the features of this slope and the course setting made everybody think they've finally found a way to stop him - he won the next GS, in Alta Badia, with one of the most terrific performances I've ever seen (you'll easily find the video on youporn or nearby, for a skiing fan there it belongs). Luitz was at his first WC podium - a year later the best he's placed is 9th two weeks ago in Beaver's GS - he was bib #35 (his compatriot Neureuther was bib #36 and finished 4th). Luitz was placed 25th after the first run, scored the best time in run2 to recover up to the 2nd position, Nani made another interesting recovery from 29th to 10th place. St.Moritz lost the super-combined. Last year Vonn won the super-G ahead of Maze, who won the giant-slalom and the combi. Vonn is not racing this year, Maze isn't the absolute dominator she used to be. St. Moritz isn't particularly fashinating, it's average on many levels: lots of turns and "S", but not technical or challenging, fast but not even close to Lake Louise, some jumps but it's not Cortina. It's like a bigger version of a giant-slalom. Being the actual leader of giant-slalom the same of super-g I'm expecting the same names at the top: Gut, Riesch, Weirather, Fenninger Picked some bets earlier, prices tempted me.
First three picks refers to saturday's SG. It's Weirather - Fenninger again and I still see Weirather ahead. I see value in both Suter and Riesch prices. Riesch on this course could be closer to Gut, while I had priced Suter favourite against Goergl. Lindell-Vikarby vs Fenninger is from the giant-slalom market and I think this price is ridiculus and won't last long - Pinnacle makes Fenninger 1.7 to Vikarby 2.1.
I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.
Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.
I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.
I went crazy with the ladies.
I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.
From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.
Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.
On to the head to heads.
Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.
Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.
Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team) is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.
Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.
The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.
South American Cup went on in La Parva (Chile) with a Super-G and a Super-Combined (by adding a slalom run to the SG time) for both men and women.
Men's Super-G
Another German youngster on the top of the podium but surprisingly this time is not Ferstl, who has been detronized by fellow countryman Klaus Brandner -a regular in European Cup though with no top10 placement, and one WC appearence (59th in Garmisch last season).
Frenchman Theaux completes the podium leading the French troupe which has placed many skiers (including few new names) here and there within the top20.
Slovenian Sporn is 10th while Perko 12th.
Argentinian Cristian Javier Simari Birkner 16th is the first South American, but it's not good news as Ferstl overcame him in the SAC standing, and he might lose his first SAC overall since 2000.
Men's Super-Combined
Super-Combined has always been a bit in the limbo, on the verge of cancellation, but there are few specialists of this discipline, Mermillod-Blondin, winner here, is one of those - he had few podiums also in WC, including Kitzbuehel this year. Another specialist is Zrncic-Dim who was 3rd.
Ferstl held strong his 2nd position, there weren't previuos relevant results neither in slalom or super-combined from him.
4th the young Frenchman Valentin Giraud Moine, who was 14th after the SG; followed by Cristian Simari Birkner, but as said wasn't enough to seize Ferstl and now the Cup is in danger.
Other nice comebacks from the British duo Crawford-Baldwin, 20th and 21th in the order after SG and American Roberts, a slalom specialist from US university circuit, who recorded the best time of the run and raised to 10th place from 27th.
Women's Super-G
Tina Weirather geared up to win the Super-G, preceeding Fabienne Suter and Lara Gut in a podium not so different from those of the World Cup.
Then there's a long plot of Swiss skiers broken by a girl from a B French team, followed by Ilka Stuhec who has showed consistency here in SAC.
Women's Super-Combined
Weirather and Suter manteined the placements they achieved with the SG while Kaufmann-Abderhalden stepped on podium also thank to another slalom letdown from Gut. She couldn't be defined as specialist of the Super-Combined but she is better in slalom than the average downhiller.
Good runs for Stuhec, Strachova -formerly Zahrobska- world class slalomist, and young Russian Yakovishina consistently in the top 10 here in Chile.
I'll leave with few videos:
As I mentioned it before: Lara Gut crush in super-combi at the World Championships in Garmish.
I'm sorry but I can't help but think the crush is funny.
Vail-Beaver Creek 2015 are taking shape, and women's speed track has just been named Raptor (because 'murica). Link
