11-12/01 Weekend - Altenmark and Adelboden

(I know, I know... got a couple of lazy weeks...)

Interesting weekend, mostly because one of my favourite courses - Adelboden, with its breathtaking hump from which you can see the standings in the finish area, best camera angle of the Tour imo.
Giant-Slalom on Saturday and Slalom on Sunday for the men.
Ladies with a Downhill on Saturday (after only one training run) and a Super-Combined made of Super-G and a Slalom run


Here's my picks, for now. All on Saturday's ladies DH:

Hoefl-Riesch is favourite to win, honestly I don't know this DH but I don't think it's like Lake Louise.
Anyway Weirather, Gut and Elena Fanchini look all top competitor to me (along with Fenninger, who's odds are too low, though) and I fancy those pricese, above all Fanchini's ones: in 4 DHs she's been 3rd twice, 5th and a DNF.
And so I fancy them in head to heads: Weirather over Riesch; Gut over Maze, who's still far from the best shape; Fanchini over Goergl who's got nice Super-G results but hasn't backed them in Downhill.

I didn't find any good price for men's GS; I also have difficulties to read trends going on there: Ligety isn't the one he used to be last year - Olympics preapration maybe the cause - so Hirscher is closer same for the other topo one Pinturault, who though seems to lack of "the peak" to win.

Sun 22/12 - Val d'Isere and Alta Badia Giant-Slaloms

Results form the two downhills, a little 1.8u profit.
Fanchini crashed, it was a strange crash after a jump but not on the landing, her run was too short to be commented.
Maze, though, made a good run and was 2nd behind Kaufmann-Abderalden at her 1st career victory. Swiss team was all over placing also Weirather (not Swiss but training with them) Aufdenblatten and Gisin in the top10. Gut was 25th and Suter 17th, and this says much about the characteristics of this slope: it's quite easy, all that matters is being fast, there are few key passages which you have to prepare so to come out of them with the right direction and speed.

Val Gardena's downhill as expected was a question between Canada and Norway, placing a combined of 5 athletes in the top 10. Guay won in front of Jansrud and Clarey.

Picks for sunday's Giant-Slaloms

In short:
Shiffrin was slow in her last slalom, it could be the physical preparation.
Brignone looked good before going out in last GS. She even finished in the top30 in super-g meaning she's in good shape.
Maze was 2nd in DH but I'm still doubtful on technical disciplines.

In men's GS I'm opposing Simoncelli and Rychard for the same motivations: they're in a falling phase and the change of ski radius last season emphasized this fall.
Same could be said for Blardone, anyway Dopfer isn't too brilliant at the moment and I don't trust him on a single at a low price, so put it in a double with Raich which should beat Olsson, but again the price is too low.
Nani - Luitz is a tough head to head between two raising youngster, anyway to me Luitz is like a one-event-man (Val d'Isere) while Nani is doing good everywhere.

Sat 21/12 - Val d'Isere and Val Gardena - dowhills

Both ladies and men are up to downhills today. Sun is shining on both venues, that marks a big differences compared to mid-week trainings that were done either on snow or fog, included yesterday's men's super-g which had good 30 seconds of the course wrapped in a thick fog.

I don't remember Val d'Isere course, also because in the past the slope changed for the World Championships but I can't say in what year changed as well.
Val Gardena's Saslong, on the other hand has always been the same, the course it's "easy" but its easiness makes it hard to recover from mistakes, even little ones. Characteristics of this slope are the humps and jumps and its bulging ground.
Italians, although "at home", don't like this slope and use to perform badly, opposing them would be a goog move.
Canadians and Vikings -they also share radio reports- have a good tradition here. Last year US Steve Nyman won with an high number as he started with improved weather conditions and visibility.

Anyway I couldn't find any bettable selection for in men's DH, all pick are from ladies' one:

Elena Fanchini is among the most consistent downhillers (with Weirather and Fenninger) so far, showing great performances on all kind of conditions. Gut and Riesch have their favourite kinds of slope, technical and tough the first flat and easy the latter; Vonn seems back but I keep doubt on her shape; same for Maze whose shape still not the best.  

Surprised to see Fanchini underdog vs Maze, and that price for the podium with so many doubts around those "above" her.

Picked Aufdenblatten on Suter as I rate Suter more like a Super-G-er than a downhiller, opposite consideration for Aufdenblatten. Low expectation on this anyway since both aren't consistent and could be either black or white.

Sat 7/12 - DHs review and today's events

Here's the complete results of my yesterday picks.

Weirather let me down a bit, she got disqualified but her 5th place wouldn't have been enough anyway, although it was a confirmation of her form, 5th isn't that bad.

I can't actually say much about women's race since I haven't watched. I'll just say I didn't expect Fenninger this good on this course, maybe tough condition "helped" her, I mean she's a top performer in adverse conditions.

Hoefl-Riesch did what she was expected to do, Fanchini confirms her good period, my fault I didn't pay attention to her when in the reasoning that took me to pick Goergl for the podium.

Big luck with the boys - Paris finished in front of Franz by just .01s.

Svindal won proving he's the best. Only one training session on a new course (it wasn't the Bird of Prey, but a BoP-Raptor hybrid) it's a bit like racing a super-g, where Svindal excel even more than in downhill. Reichelt in great form, technically speaking he's flawless, Fill scored another good podium for the Ital-jet. 

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Today ladies are re-running the downhill, while boys have a super-g

Here are my picks, I'm fiercely opposing US ladies, yesterda the best of them was Julia Ford from the B-squad, Mancuso was 26th and Cook, Smith, Ross and Vonn all finished outside the top30.

I'll re-pick Goergl vs Stuhec almost at he same odd of yesterday.

I'll give a chance to Spaniard Ruiz-Castillo against Moser, Moser finished .10s ahead yesterday, but I feel like Ruiz-Castillo deserve to be trusted a little where she does good from the training sessions as it happened last year in Meribel for her first career win. Moser is still too erratic.

In mens SG I'll only bet on a double picking two austrian, Reichelt and Mayer, both with a terrific season opening. Jansrud back from an injury as yet to find the better form, while Heel hasn't convinced me so far where the course becomes curvy.

  

Fri - 06/12 - Betting Beaver Creek and Lake Louise DHs

I'm in danger to come out with few fingers burnt after today's DHs.

Luckily enough I still don't get much about mens fast disciplines, plus there's been only one training before the race.



I took this early this week, well before the starting list came out, thinking the odds were good because Franz would have got a bad bib. Actually Franz in bib #14 so a good one. Paris is still better than Franz but the difference in their level isn't as large as the spread in their odds here, a bad call, shit happens.

I went crazy with the ladies.

I believe Weirather is in top form (2nd in DH and 3rd in GS last weekend), she's already done good here in the past as well, reaching the top3 twice.

From training Hoefl-Riesch looks like the one to beat she loves the easy course (has won here in the past) but she often shows a bit of nerves when she's the favourite or she's put under pressure, plus her odds were too low; Gut in my opinion is too light for this course, while Vonn's shape is too doubtful.

Cutting off Gut, Vonn, Maze, Fenninger (for she's too light too), Cook (because what I wrote about the US team in a previous post), I found Goergl a possible name for a top3 finish, she's been under par so far but would have got the 3rd place in last SG if she wasn't disqualified for some unregularities in her skis.

On to the head to heads.

Already said enough about Weirather's form, while Fenninger usually here performs better the SG than the DH.

Goergl 1.83 against Stuhec is ridiculus to me, I won't hide that I still have to understand what Stuhec is (technical, slippery, a mix of these) anyway she's still got difficult to find the top10 and her results are a roller coaster.

Aufdenblatten (along with the Swiss team)  is in decent form she hasn't got a good relation with this course though while Merighetti finishe inside the top10 several times. The main reason behind this pick though is that Aufdenblatten is bib#1 so starting with no infos about the course.

Picked Marchand-Arvier over Fischbacher for the same reason of above, Fischbacher in #3, plus the high odds. And also because this course better suite to MMA, with many long flat section.

The tremble has to be staked with ease although made by large favourited: Sejersted did good in training, while Goggia is maybe too light for this course; Riesch is the favourite for the final win, Maze is in clear difficulties and this is not her kind of course; both Fanchini and Suter are in great form, but Suter is more a SGer than a DHer, she prefers technical courses to flat ones.

Schaldming 2013 - Super-G Ladies

Super-G slope, technical data

Although all those numbers, the slope of the women Super-G is not so hard.
There's been only one race on this slope, last year.
Anyway conditions will be different, considering last year the race was in march and the snow was "rotten", wet, for the warm temperatures.
This time there will be a more hard snow, but, BUT it'll be beneath a coat of soft powder.
So other than last year, this time low starting bib will be disadvantaged in favour of later starter.
All this if low clouds and fog don't mess it up even more.

As I said in previous post Vonn is bookies favourite, but her price to me worth a lay.
She's not convincing me among Super-Gs's turns and there are some strong competitor.
Fenninger is an aggressive racer and she's also racing "at home", in Austria.
Mancuso is one of my favourite in this kind of events because she can often give a little more, she levels up her performances.
Winner: Mancuso 1 unit @12 Lost -1
Winner: Fenninger 1 unit @9 Lost -1

h2h Schmidhofer - Aufdenblatten - pick Aufdenblatten 6 units @2.02 Lost -6

Die Piste in Schladming ist in einem guten Zustand – Schlechte Nachrichten aus dem ÖSV Lager – Nicole „Nici“ Schmidhofer die das Rennen mit Startnummer 1 eröffnet ist über Nacht krank geworden. ÖSV Damencheftrainer Herbert Mandl: Nici hat eine Bauchgrippe erwischt. Sie hat die ganze Nacht gebrochen und kaum ein Auge zugetan. Sie wird wohl nicht so bei Kräften sein wie wir es uns erhofft haben.” Bei der Besichtigung, die zur Stunde stattfindet ist Schmidhofer aber dabei.

The quote says that Schimdhofer doesn't feel well, she's been ill this night.
More reasons are given from her low starting bib, #1, so witouth knowing the course and probably with powder still on it.
Her only relevant previous result, 2nd place in Cortina, was made in a strange race due to weather conditions.
Aufdenblatten has a good starting bib , #15, and she's experienced and she can easily finish in top 15.

h2h LindellVikarby - Fanchini - pick Fanchini 2 units @2.75 Void 0
Little controversy in this one as the bookie says Elena Fanchini, who's not racing, there's her sister Nadia instead.
Let's see because as the previous pick Lindell-Vikarby has a low starting bib, #2, while the racing Fanchini is #31.

h2h Fenninger - Rebensburg - pick Fenninger 3 units @1.90 Lost -3
Rebensburg victory on this slope, last year, was made in strange conditions.
I actually think the gap between these two is a bit wider in favour of Fenninger.

Very bad day for me, and for the race.
The continuos start delays and so different conditions, the fact that the race started hours after the patrol and study of the course... all this and other reasons makes pre-race analysis pointless.
Anyway Mancuso did something great, she confirmed her beast mode in these events.
Fenninger made a stupid mistake, this watching from TV, missing a gate; actually many other racers missed that gate.
Fenninger was also a bit nervy, and so was Hoefl-Riesch, taking start just after Vonn's terrible crush.

Maze is just the best, this season she's going to win anything, great attitude.
Gut... I've always doubts about her, today she was great maybe I should consider her like Mancuso.
Goggia, 4th place, is a great talent on which keep an eye.
 

Ladies Super-G - St.Moritz

H2H Fanchini - Cook - pick Fanchini 3 units @1.54 Lost -3
Fanchini made a good run yesterday, finishing in the top 15 in the Super-G run of the Super-Combined event.
Cook made not so good in the same event.
Here I also pick given the starting position of the two: Fanchini will be #27 while Cook #49, twenty number is a great difference and the condition of the slope will change in worse: there will create a channel, with a littel step that will made harder the way down and a loss of time if you can't follow that channel.

H2H Rolland - Smith - pick: Smith 2 units @2.11 Win +2.22
Pick already made in last Super-G, a week ago in Lake Louise, Canada.
Style motivation: Smith is a better in covering turns, while Rolland needs straight section where she can gain speed.

-0.78
Fanchini out, too faulty could be said; she can't find continuity in her results.

Right impression about Rolland: turns aren't good for her and she finish well behind.