Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.

It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.

Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.

There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.

The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.

Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.

Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.

Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.

At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 

In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.

But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.

And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 

Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.

I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.

Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.

Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.

Week 40 loading

Finally back and in full capacity.

WTA Tokyo:
Great event in Tokyo for the WTA with several top players, also keeping in mind the WTA Championship final. Draw
A first round bye for the first eights seeded but some interesting 1 round matches as well.
#1 Azarenka seems to have an easy path up to the quarter, where she may face #5 Kerber, then in the semi #3 Radwanska or #7 Na Li, unlikely to see the other seeded players up there (Wozniacki and Kanepi the Seoul title contenders).
#2 Sharapova after a tough 2 round agaist Lisicki should have some easy rounds up to the quarter against #8 Stosur and likely a the winner will face #3 Kvitova.

Some nice matches for tomorrow are:
Safarova[16] - Pironkova in a clash of (forehand) styles the leftie flat powerful one of the czech and the odd sliced of the bulgarian. Safarova leads 2-1 the head to heads but every match has gone into a decider; both looked in raising shape on the US hard after a disappointing season.

Martic - Petkovic, every Martic's match is something to watch... well she should be inspired, and that doesn't happen often, Petkovic is coming back little by little after her ankle injury.

Vinci[14] - Zahlavova Strycova should be a funny match full of slices, dropshot and volleys... very old fashioned

At higher odds I could have tried something, like Pironkova or Wickmayer (I don't trust Jankovic, but I trust even less the Wick).

The time zone is unhappy too, so no bet for tomorrow, when I'll resume the post with the ATP draws.

So let's resume from here with the ATP, two indoor tournaments this week.

Thailand Open:
#1 Tipsarevic will chase points to run after Tsonga for the last ATP final spot.
The draw doesn't inspire me too much though.
Apart from an aces-Guinnes-World-Record match Raonic - Karlovic, and a shocking Young - Verdasco 2nd rounds and maybe Petzschner and Dimitrov going through couple of rounds, there are all players I don't enjoy much: baseline returner who wait the right opponent' shot to exploit and turn the rally's inertia.

Malaysian Open:
Funnier draw, in Kuala Lumpur.
#1 Ferrer still working on his project of winning as much lower tournaments as possible, eating all the Fab-4 crumbs.
A quarter against Feliciano Lopez #5 is a tough one though, with Lopez leading 5-2 the indoor h-2-h.
In this semi there should be the genius of #4 Dolgopolov.
Bottom half leaded by #2 Monaco in a injury quarter counting Jimmy Wang and Brian Baker as unseeded and #8 Melzer. Monaco applys pretty well to the indoor, while Melzer maybe is on his best surfaces (won Menphis back in February before the cosmic void of the rest of his season).

Open d'Orleans:
This is going to be one of the most competitive challenger ever seen. Here's the draw.
I won't trust too much #1 Kohlschreiber, so huge favored hardly wins (see Youhzny is St.Petersbourg, or Bartoli in Guangzhou or Seppi in Genova challenger, recent memories).
So the clash is open: #3 Goffin, #3 Malisse, I don't think #4 Mahut (Gulbis first round, Brown the second) but even useeded like Llodra or Olivetti or the young raising talents Berankis and Donskoy ( a great first round between them).
If it's going to be TV covered i think this'll be the tournament I'll follow.

Today's picks for the finals of both ATP:

M Klizan - F Fognini: Fognini 3 units @2.13
I won't hide that after a whole night this odd still looks weird, Klizan played nearly 4 hours against Youzhny then stepped on court again to play a double match.
The ranking position (45 Klizan, 53 Fognini), the raising condition and level of tennis showed by Klizan in this season and maybe the level of previous opponents too could justify this odd, but it won't count the time spent on court yesterday, which is a lot for Klizan.
The match could be very similar to the one played yesterday by Klizan with many variation from the baseline, but the kind of tennis played from Fognini is much closer to the Klizan one then to the Youhzny one: rallies will be longer with many topspin from both sides (Fognini plays topspin both from forehand and backhand) so the deep crossed leftie forehand from the slovak won't affect too much Fognini's game since he's used to hit the ball on the raise with the backhand, while Youhzny had many problem to handle it, he looked like he was plaiyng a mid-volley not finishing the swing to hit it safe but not pushing it.
Keeping the rallies long will be the game for Fognini who's in great physical shape while Klizan's legs will be much heavier and slower.
Important emotional element as well with both chasing the first ATP title, but it'll be the first final ever for Klizan while Fognini already played one back this year losing to Simon on Bucharest red clay.

J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi (+4.5 games) 2 units @1.88
J-W Tsonga - A Seppi: Seppi 1 unit @4.70
The odd is too huge on Seppi, ok it's Tsonga, and ok he's local and the surface suits him but Seppi has done well also beating Monfils in his semifinal while Tsonga struggled also against Davidenko and the movement on court of the russian are very similar to the italian's ones: Seppi has trained a lot on the flexibility and agility taking great improvement on the first stroke after the service, when he's more ready in case of an aggresive return by the opponent.
If Seppi manage to cut down his unforced errors and keeps the rallies going long he could get his chance.

Bad sensation that too many people are picking Fognini, let's hope for all the best.

-6
And not many comments to do as in both there wasn't much of game.
Tsonga was just too much for Seppi, while Fognini... well my sensations were true he couldn't win this.

USO - Day 6

First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.

Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.

Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.

Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.

Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.

Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter

-4

USO R1 - Day 1

M Klizan - A Falla: pick Falla @2.10 1 unit
Close match from n.51 and n.52 both lefties.
Falla is one that always gives his best in Grand Slams.
Reached 3rd round in Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, R16 in Roland Garros starting from qualies in 2011 and took Federer to the fifth set in Wimbledon 1R in 2010 and to the third set at Olympics Games this year.
He also records more matches on hardcourts than Klizan

D Istomin - J Zopp: pick Zopp @4.00 1 unit
Really high odd here. About 50 positions in the ranking between them but I see Zopp much more talented.
Estonian has got a larger varitey of strokes, above all winning ones, while Istomin apart from a solid serve is a preatty defensive player although he's also slow on movements.
Istomin has a 1/2 record on US Open Series this year and in these matches underdog always won (once Denis vs Benneteau, twice his opponents Chardy and Darcis)

R Haase - F Lopez: Haase @2.29 1 unit
Not a great value here but I don't trust at all Feliciano in long matches.
The spaniard is a great quality player and fast courts suit him, for his solid serve and his volley skills.
Haase, who I don't like, can make his opponent play badly, and Lopez can really suffer this kind of situations.

I Dodig - H Moriya: pick Moriya @4.00 1 unit
Dodig has had a bad season.
I remember last year he was very good playing with a great variety of strokes, beeing runner-up on grass in Den Bosch, and doing well also on clay. This years he couldn't reapeat himself.
Moriya is a youn japanese and in asian there's a great circuit of lower tournament on hard courts. He is 25/11 win/lose on hard a comes from three hard battle qualies matches, with also a win as large underdog (5.00) against american Odesnik)

0
Zopp saved my day, a disastrous one, with mines much inferior to their opponent.
Saw a bit of Sock beating Flo Mayer playing very nicely with solid serve (several break-points saved) and a lot of variation: dropshots and all... like Mayer does.
Cirstea also looked solid, but Lisicki wasn't in her best day and I saw a bandageless Oprandi, running for the first time but also here the opponent (Petkovic) wasn't in her best day