Fri 21/02 - Olympic ladies' Slalom

Wed 19/02 - Olympic Men's Giant-Slalom

Sat 15/02 - Ladies Olympic Super-G

I tried to figure out something about ladies Super-G but I came out with nothing.

As seen so far all the events of alpine skiing have been quite crazy, with all the favourites (but Hoefl-Riesch in ladies combined) flopping big and outsiders popping up everywhere.

That's all about this kind of events, where all that matter is being in one of the top three placements, so everyone push to 100% and the space between a big performance and a failure is very narrow, and failure in alpine skiing is also a line just 1 meter wider that results in few cents of second loss. 

Only safe statement about what has happened so far is: "team Switzerland is in excellent form".

And Swiss have few good arrows to shoot in ladies SG: Gut, Gisin and Suter.

Hoefl-Riesch, Maze, Fenninger, Mancuso, Hosp among the others, while Goergl seems to be not liking this snow- she's always dangerous though-, Weirather is in the starting list but her forms should be vary bad after an injury in training that had her missing the downhill, same for Gagnon and Rebensburg -always struggling with health issues.

Opposing these last names is all I advice. With spring-time temperature an early starter winner is much possible, I'm not doing any specific name though as it didn't pay so far (I haven't posted the outcome of ladies DH, a bit late eh?):

Wed 12/02 - Ladies Olympic Downhill

Again quick, short before the race starts.

I think there are more chances of a top 3 finish for those ladies: Cook and Goerlg in raising shape, Kaufmann-Abderalden and Kling revelations of this season.

Mon 10/02 - Ladies Super-Combined

No time for divagations, just the picks

Sun 9/02 - Olympic men's Downhill

Alpine skiing officially debuts at the Olympics.

Downhill slope has been describe as very though mostly because of the variations, words of US downhiller Steven Nyman (@BelieveinSteven):

Some compare the course to Bormio, some to Beaver Creek, surely is tough being like a very fast Super-G. Many athletes tried it in sections along the three training runs and are only putting the pieces together for the race.

Bode Miller was the most solid, but I wonder if going 90% (though not 100%) for three training runs couldn't have tired him. Big pressure from media and fans on him as well.

Also solid looked Austrian Matthias Mayer and Norway's flag bearer Aksel Svindal.  

Outsiders names are Kueng (this season revelation), Italians Fill and Innerhofer and Frenchman Theaux. I'd call out of the battle for top positions Guay and Paris, both dealing with mid-season injuries and lacking of form.

From training results Carlo Janka looks like a possible dark horse.

Couldn't find any playable price son no bet, I'd only advice to oppose Guay and Paris.

I'll leave few graphs I made, I find it helpful to better understand one's shape through the season.

Place and final position in this season downhills

Miller's form was a crescendo, though his Super-G's results gives the idea much better

Svindal is just impressive

Guay DNFed in Wengen and missed Kitzbuehel

Fill's daughter was born few days before Kitz, he wasn't on with the head.

DNF in Beaver Creek

Found this interesting Swiss Janka and Defago peaked in Kitzbuehel, race closer to the Games (DH left, SG right)

#RoadtoSochi - last leg

Yep, this is pic is disturbing.
Neureuther in Germany uniform.

Missed last weekend, mostly because I knew weather conditions would have been tough and thought few would have race 100%, but actually it resulted in a nice weekend (or rather Sunday).

Now on to Sochi and the Olympics games.

Little could be said about the hills, though as usual for this kind of events are going to be easy (to boring) slopes.

Test races were held there in 2012 but I wouldn't relate too much on those results.

Anyway here are few videos.

Hans Knauss on Men's Downhill slope

And Mr.GS Ted Ligety trying Giant-Slalom's slope. This one is a bit more relevant as it happened only last year and Ligety exclusively trained on that slope. All this to add to the fact that this hill perfectly suits to Ted's style.



Schedule of the Games:












This week I'll try to make some graphs about main athletes results and forms, I had thought for long. Should give better idea of current shape of some of them.  

Schladming results

On the shoulders of the giants: Hirscher and Neureuther
crown the new king of Slalom, Kristoffersen

As always great race and atmosphere in Schladming.

Surprising win for the newborn superstar of Slalom: 19-year-old Norse Henrik Kristoffersen.
Maiden win in the temple of Slalom.
Honestly I expected him to feel the pressure, but no, he skied easily in both runs good enough to beat "on field" Hirscher and Neureuther, while Matt, leader after run 1, straddled.
Also good from Dopfer and Pinturault, they are in peak form now.
Expected worse from Moelgg, but the slope was in good conditions also after many runs and this is a course he loves.
Bit of bad luck as Hirscher was in front of Neureuther by just .01s

Tue 28/01 - Men's Slalom Schladming (night race)

Big event for Schladming night race, although there's no Yuasa (no party!)

Two early surprise are Kristoffersen and Thaler entering the first group, first time for both. Worth to notice they are kind of the youngest and the oldest athlete on course.
Kostelic and Moelgg drop off the top7, things could possibly go even worse as beside the lack of shape they've never performed well on ruined courses.

Hirscher should have learnt the lesson from Kitz, and if he wants to win the Globe he must not fail here; this means he must be less aggressive and take the 80-60 points of the 2nd-3rd place rather than get out.
Neureuther, free from all these issues, can just ski for the final victory and has proved more than once that his level is equal to Hirscher's.
Behind them Kristoffersen and Thaler battle for a step of the podium, Pinturault occasinally joins them; Matt, Myhrer and Hargin don't look on the same level but they can always be dangerous.
Dopfer's shape raised recently could worth backing him (though not at current prices) and also Gross in in good shape.
Moelgg and Kostelic among those might be worth opposing.
My picks:

Sat 25/01 - Kitzbuehel and Cortina(2) Downhills

Another good day yesterday, winning all the head to heads. Actually, I haven't seen what happened in slalom's run2 - I know it was strange, although not as strange as run1 setted by Papa Kostelic.
Feeling is that Hargin's peak form is either gone, or rather faded, or it's still there (he's stil a top performer) but he's bearing in his mind what happened in Adelboden when he couldn't hold the lead and dropped to 4th in the second run.

On to today's DHs - the biggest events of the tours.

I think anything could happen in Kitz. But for the most part Bode looks like the one who should win (my humble opininion: Bode came back more for winning Kitz than for the Olympics). Svindal maybe his the best physical power and endurance -key elements on this long course. Reichelt's form has raised recently and so Kueng's. Last year winner, Paris, had problems getting back in shape after his crash in december, hardly he'll defend his title.

On ladies side Hoefl-Riesch is the one to beat, her form is terrific at the moment and she's in full run for the Cup.
Behind her the same lot: Fenninger, Weirather and Goergl.
I had good impressions from Mancuso yesterday, and I'm backing her today, she's getting closer and closer to the top, and so is the whole US team: almost every one scored a season best yesterday.
So I'm picking Leanne Smith over Marchand-Arvier: the frenchwoman lost the whole pre-season and came back to race only few weekends ago, all the missing time is sensible seeing her racing.
Also backing Merighetti, on her favourite course; I know Schmidhofer (bib #39) was 3rd yesterday but I think condition changed a bit for late starters: young US Jakie Wiles (bib #41) was 15th (first WC points for her) and Hungarian Miklos (bib #45) was 18th tied with Slovenian Ferk (bib #38)  

Fri 24/01 - Kitzbuehel men's slalom and Cortina ladies' downhill 1

The most important weekend of men's tour kicks off with the slalom. This is kind of special also because run 1 will be at 12 while run 2 at 17, big gap between the two runs. Note that run 2 will be a night run (watch out for Yuasa)

Pick from ladies' SG was a winner: Schmidhofer 16th finished more or less were I expected her, Ruiz-Castillo made me panic scoring the best intermediate time at Int1, but then she was awful and finished 30th.
Goergl won confirming her good form, and so Hoefl-Riesch close behind and getting more and more close to the Cup; good third place for Nici Hosp.
Maze and Mancuso looked in better shape, and so american Cook; on the other hand Gut, 19th, in falling down almost vertically.

On to men's picks.
Kristoffersen, though he'll start with a worse bib in run 1, is performing better than Moelgg.
Hargin and Neureuther are closer to their opponents than odds suggest. I think Hargin is in great form and that the bad result in Wengen was because of the snow conditions, that didn't let him ski aggressively as he does.
 

Thu 23/01 - Cortina ladies Super-G 1

Veeeery long weekend for alpine skiing. Ladies racing 2 downhills and 2 super-gs replacing the cancelled races in Cortina last weekend, and replacing Garmish.
Men in Kitzbuehel, where from lack of snow we're passed to too much snow, and schedule is changed almost every 15 minutes. Main goal of the organizators is to save the downhill that is like the Wimbledon or Super Bowl of alpine skiing.

First the (shite) results from last weekend:

Market not offering big prices today, only found this bet.

Schmidhofer is quite solid in SG and was 2nd last year, Ruiz-Castillo is too up-and-down though she was 4th last year.

Small margins for a surebet on E.Fanchini - Lindell-Vikarby between bet365 and pinnacle

Sat 18/01 - Cortina and Wengen Downhills

Very heavy saturday as both gender are racing on the best (imho) downhill courses of their calendar.

Open brawl in women's one, where I honestly don't know what could happen. Maze likes this slope, but Maria Riesch looks like the one to beat. Fenninger, Weirather and Kaufmann-Abderalden, though, have been the most solid so far, while Gut's shape has little faded and Goergl's one has raised.
To all this there's to add the cancelled training, and due to fog start has already been lowered.

In men's DH I think there might be surprises -read Svindal could not win this. The vinking in fact doesn't like this course and has never won here (he also crashed dramatically last year).
I couldn't say who could replace Svindal on the top step of the podium though; my names are: Innerhofer, who usually does well here, and so do Reichelt; same for Kroell but his form doesn't look the best; my dark horse would be Beat Feuz: the Swiss has won here in 2012 and his season has been decent considering he's skipped last season

Today's pick, and yesterday's outcome.

EDIT: Cortina has been cancelled, pick refounded

Fri 17/01 - Wengen men's Super-Combined

Big weekend starting today with men's Super-Combined - one slalom run followed by a Super-G run.
Let me say Wengen is the best course of the Tour, or at least it's my favourite one.

Picks for the Super-Combi

I find a little strange that Kostelic is so widely favourite to win, he's payed 2/1 against Pinturault's 6/1.
Kostelic at the moment doesn't worth the top 20 in slalom (though in the 2 runs), and his Super-G isn't any better. Both Pinturault and Ligety are better than the Croat in slalom although less reliable, and maybe they're even better in Super-G.
Frenchman Mermillod-Blondin looks like the closer to them: he finished 6th in a "real" Super-G at Beaver Creek, and he also races in "real" slaloms although he has never qualified for a second run so far this season. He was 3rd in Kitz Combi last year and Kitz Combi has 2 runs of slalom.

Here last results from Flachau, thanks Daum who got out at 3 gates from the finish line.

 
 

Tue 14/01 - Ladies Slalom Flachau

Results of Altenmarkt DH, then (luckily?) I didn't have any other bets on Sunday's races.

Today Night Race in Flachau, to determine who's Yuasa among the ladies.
Previous slaloms were won by Shiffrin and Marlies Schild, two win both.
Few names showed enough consistency: Gagnon is solidly in the top 5 bot hasn't got a podium yet, today she's bib #1 and her coach is setting run 1, she comes from her first WC victory, everything seems to point in her direction; Nina Loeseth, although starting with high bibs scored three top10 finish; one last hot name is Bernadette Schild.
Maria Riesch has a good tradition in Flachau, but more than going for the win she'd rather go for points and increase her WC lead.

Picks for tonight.

Huge odds for Zettel and Nina Loeseth: although Zettel is underperforming in slalom she's got a good tradition here, Hansdotter is underperforming as well, so I think it's a very tasty price; as said before Loeseth is constatly in the top10, while Pietilae-Holmner before Bormio's 2nd place had a 20th place and didn't finish the other two slaloms.

Smaller stakes on Eklund and Feierabend. Hosp doesn't look good in slalom, she lacks of reactivity, of that fluency of movements you need in slalom (just look how she wasted over 1 second in the slalom run of the combined). Daum results are close to Feierabend ones, but Daum is achieving those results with better bib numbers than Feierabend, whom is improving: she was #45 in Levi at the start of the season.

11-12/01 Weekend - Altenmark and Adelboden

(I know, I know... got a couple of lazy weeks...)

Interesting weekend, mostly because one of my favourite courses - Adelboden, with its breathtaking hump from which you can see the standings in the finish area, best camera angle of the Tour imo.
Giant-Slalom on Saturday and Slalom on Sunday for the men.
Ladies with a Downhill on Saturday (after only one training run) and a Super-Combined made of Super-G and a Slalom run


Here's my picks, for now. All on Saturday's ladies DH:

Hoefl-Riesch is favourite to win, honestly I don't know this DH but I don't think it's like Lake Louise.
Anyway Weirather, Gut and Elena Fanchini look all top competitor to me (along with Fenninger, who's odds are too low, though) and I fancy those pricese, above all Fanchini's ones: in 4 DHs she's been 3rd twice, 5th and a DNF.
And so I fancy them in head to heads: Weirather over Riesch; Gut over Maze, who's still far from the best shape; Fanchini over Goergl who's got nice Super-G results but hasn't backed them in Downhill.

I didn't find any good price for men's GS; I also have difficulties to read trends going on there: Ligety isn't the one he used to be last year - Olympics preapration maybe the cause - so Hirscher is closer same for the other topo one Pinturault, who though seems to lack of "the peak" to win.