ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks

I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.

Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.

The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.

After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.

Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.

WTA Linz 

Yesterday.

Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.

Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.

Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.

Today.

Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.

Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.

I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.  

Tokyo WTA 1R

One lone bet as there will be few first round for the ATP

T. Paszek - C. Giorgi: Giorgi 2 units @2.61
Giorgi came thruogh two hard round of the qualies so has had a good practice on these courts.
Her game as I've already said really suits to this kind of surfaces and she could be very dangerous even for top players, if only she manage to settle her nerves.
She's an hard hitter and huge server. From steady on the center of the baseline she delivers deep and hard to both sides.
Paszek is having a bad season, she's in a negative run on hardcourt with 6/12 W/L and in overall too 16/23.

There are couple of match with interesting odds which I won't risk though.
Schiavone @3.30 for example. Shvedova is one of my favourite in the WTA one of the most technically complete, being also a good double player, that plays aggressively from the baseline trying to win the point as soon as possible often approaching the net.
She can suddenly lose the tension and start playing bad, though, since her game is very wasteful from a nerves point of view so Schiavone, a mentally tough player, could exploit this moments.
The italian seems to have lost her better shape though and hasn't had a great record on hard so far in this season, her styles is not that bad also on hard and maybe she doesn't deserve such an odd, but I'll skip.  

Also the odds on Jovanovski look huge, Wozniacki has won a title after a whole year but that was her level, her true level, which is also becoming the level of Bojana.
The serbian girl is not one that got scared from tough match and her game is not so risky to make Wozniacki sure to win this simply returning everything up to an opponent's unforced.

Wimby Ladies' QF/ Gentlemen's R16

S Williams - P Kvitova: pick Kvitova @2.42 1 unit
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit

Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams  - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.

I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.

All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.