ATP Valencia picks

I'm very happy that the lay on Tsonga has already landed, although now I've got to find someone else to back or to lay.
No, I won't.
Every second round match looks tough and I can't find someone to trust or to distrust.
I've seen Ferrer in action ad he looked very similar to the one who lost the semifinal in Kuala Lumpur: many unforced errors, that are not in his style, and not running on every ball, also not in his style or at least in what he was early this season.
Lay Ferrer seems the best thing to do since he's not 100% fit, but on the other hand the draw isn't a tough one for him.

Today's picks.

Valencia
Still to play a couple of first round, I don't see problems coming for the two favoutites (Granollers and Raonic).

While I lean for all the underdogs in the three second rounds to be played today.

Isner - Goffin. 1-0 h2h.
Their first rounds have been much different, confortable win for Goffin, while Isner had big trouble from Fognini, the italian has also been a break up in the deciding set.
The so called indoor hardcourt isn't really fast, and this allow the rallies to go long. And on rally Goffin has got more chances to get the point.
There's also a "geographical motivation" as Isner hasn't got a great tradition in Europe (nevermind the surface), he hasn't got a great tradition out of the US as well.
No Tv coverage but to me it's a Lay Isner @1.33

Verdasco - Cilic. 5-3 h2h.
Here I'd go with the head to head and pick Verdasco, but I'll skip this. Also the over 22.5 is below the even, but to me it's the best thing to pick in this match.
Verdasco is having a good period, in this last part of the season, at least compared to his summer. He's much more combative.
Cilic won 2-1 against Klizan, this could be an indication of how Cilic deals with lefties, though usually he hasn't got much troubles with them.
Verdasco and Cilic have recently faced each other in Shanghai, resulting in a 2-1 win for the croatian.

Hewitt - Dodig. No h2h.
I've watched Hewitt's previous round and it was a tremendous vision. Both him and his opponent (Monaco) were very bad and there's been a great load of unforced errors.
Dodig has had a bad season, though here he seems to feel better, he confortably passed the qualies and then beated Kohlschreiber in the first round.
Odds going down for him, I managaed to pick something @2.06, I won't pick anything below the @1.90.
So for me is back Dodig @2.06. Given the bad stuff Hewitt did in the previous round.

Basel
I'll go short for this beacuse I don't like the odds.

Paire seems to have some problems with hardcourt, as if he need slower surfaces to play his tricks. A bit surprised by this though, since he's got a good serve. I don't give much chances to him against Seppi, the italian is well focused and has got good movement on this surface.

Less chances for Laaksonen against Mathieu and for Falla against Del Potro.

Matosevic is tempting me. He did not so bad in Vienna, here the courts should be slower though.
Still I don't like Mayer on fast courts for his swings that require time. He lost in the first round in Stockholm to Berankis.
Might be a tighter match than odds suggest.

USO - Day 6

First not posted my picks here, shame because it was one rare positive day:
Steve Johnson - Ernests Gulbis: pick Johnson 1 unit @3.00 +2
Philipp Kohlschreiber - Benoit Paire: pick Paire 1 unit @4.33 -1
Fabio Fognini - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: pick Fognini 2 units @2.2 +2.4
Janko Tipsarevic - Brian Baker: pick Baker 2 units @4.5 -2
Na Li - Laura Robson: pick Robson 1 unit @6.5 +5.5
Petra Kvitová - Pauline Parmentier: pick Parmentier 1 unit @13.00 - 1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Burdette 1 unit @19 -1
Maria Sharapova - Mallory Burdette: pick Over 16.5 games 3 units @1.90 -3
+1.9 to close a negative august.

Today's picks:
Marin Cilic - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori -2.5 games 2 units @1.96 -2
Nishikori leads the head to head 2-1, all on hardcourt.
Neat run so far for the japanese, with two 3-0 wins over Andreozzi and Smyczek.
Two marathon for the croatian, 3-2 wins over Matosevic and Brands.
The time spent on court could make the difference on the long run here.
Nishikori is a hardcourter that mostly practice in the US, on this kind of surfaces.
Though not an hard hitter, he shows not relevant weak, but also strong, points that makes him a player hard to read.
The match will be played from baseline, with long rallies and Nishi's physical preparation and agility on side-movements added Cilic's previus rounds efforts will do the difference.

Jeremy Chardy - Martin Klizan: pick Klizan 2 units @2.20 +3
1-1 the head to head, both on clay.
By far the less interesting match today, though I find the odd nice.
Both have had a busy season with many match played and also some finals at Challenger level:
37/20 for Chardy, 1 title in Noumea (hardcourt) and runner-up in Tunis (clay)
39/17 for Klizan, 4 titles Rabat, Marrakech, Bordeaux and San Marino and runner-up in Prague (all on clay).
With his power Chardy better suit to hardcourt while Klizan baseline defensive play makes him a solid claycourter.
Klizan's skills on hard haven't fully showed themselves though since this his only his 6th match on this surface so far in this season and his results are encouraging since he's never been great favoured, while as huge underdog took Isner to the third set in Winston-Salem and defaeted Tsonga in R2.
His defensive skills, his not heavy balls harder to deliver for the opponent and his crossed-forehand on his opponent backhand (Klizan is leftie) could cause many problems to Chardy who can easily hit tons of unforced errors.

Tomas Berdych - Sam Querrey: pick Querrey 2 units @3.40 -2
Berdych leads the head to heads 2-1 last one just one week ago in Winston-Salem.
The difference to me is smaller than the one made by the odd.
Both hard hitters, and solid servers, the difference will be made by few points.
The support for the local player and the possibility to win the point in other ways than a baseline forehand could be important weapons in a long, tensed match.

Gilles Simon - Mardy Fish: pick Simon 2 units @3.25 -2
Simon leads the head to head 2-1 (1-1 on hard and 1-0 on clay)
Though local and with decent result on the US Open Series, the fact that Fish has played bit too much recently and above all the fifth set battle at the previous round could be aan handicap for the american who's struggled with physical problems for the whole season.
Both solid serve-returners, could battle for long if none of them take a wide advantage, and a long match will favor Simon.

Sara Errani - Olga Puchkova: pick Puchkova 1 unit @13 -1
Again against Errani, this time her opponent is an hardcourter

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ATP - 17/07

I don't know if it's universally known but there's this statistical rule, one of those unwritten rules that often happen in sports; It's called "Regola di Tommasi" (Tommasi's rules, translated), it's something like this: players who played in a final (winner or runner-up doesn't matter) very often lose the first round in the very next tournament. It's because those players have played a full week, and there's a great amount of mental energy involved, and after the final they relax a bit and lose focus.
Todays picks will follow this:

F Cipolla - M Cilic: pick Cipolla @6.97 1 unit
Huge odds here for Cipolla that has already defeated Cilic once.

N Almagro - T Kamke: pick Kamke @4.79 2 units
Odds may differe since I made the pick yesterday.
Almagro was also complaining about some kind of shoulder injury.
Also Kamke to win the first set will be ok.
Anyway I don't think he will complete the first set, should be something to bet on "one ball" books, which I don't have.

-3 Not worked here