Katowice WTA, Casablanca ATP - Friday

Bad, bad, bad day yesterday... so bad I'm happy to take a break today (forced by things, not of my own free will).

Actually yesterday wasn't that bad, at least I obeyed to my self-imposed limit of liabilities per match.

It was bad because I'd have close the day with a decent profit after few matches, but than made a stupid thing and passed the rest of the day chasing, failing in it and making the loss worse.

Good start of the day with Vinci v Bertens, as expected Bertens would have been a tough opponent and Vinci won only thank to tactics, otherwise Bertens would have prevailed in most of the baseline rallies.

Again... I'm convinced that Vinci is not a claycourter, opponents with less evident weak points (yesterday it was Bertens' BH on Vinci's slice BH, crosscourt) and ability to handle her variations of rhythm can easily beat her. Most of the girl can create more pace from baseline, and are in better shape than her.

Than I got a loss in Carreno-Busta v Anderson.

There's never been a match here, and I only watched few games at the beginning.

The Spaniard served first, I expected him to hold, and following this a huge movement in the odds, thing that happened, but I lacked of firmness ("I'll wait for the next hold to lay"). Anderson took the break in the third game, I took the loss.

Begu v Cadantu was at the same time of Carreno-Busta v Anderson, but I early switched to the Romanian derby as it was clear the men weren't playing the same sport.

Also here I expected many shifts of momentum, some WTA drama, and I'd say the match was sort of epic.

Begu was almost dominant from baseline, while Cadantu was running back and forth and eventually winning the point on an unforced error from Begu.

Begu took the first, then she had a blackout in the second and lost it 6-3, she was leading 3-1.

At this point I could have gone with a good all green but I chose to be creative and have a huge green on Begu and a small green on Cadantu. Begu went 4-1 up, I thought it was done. But Cadantu came back and Begu and I stood there watching her doing so unable to stop it (I was like: "Just one game... Begu goes 5 games to something and Cadantu will go mad"). Begu lost 6-4 the deciding.

At this point my day was good enough, and I could have stayed away of Volandri - Klizan and just enjoy the match.

I didn't.

After the first set Klizan went down to 1.22, I laid that price, as Volandri was fighting hard. 

In a short time I was all green. That would have made a great day.

But then I took a step further and messed everything up. As always in Volandri's matches there were many chances to recover.

And in the end as in Begu's match I watched Klizan comeback in the tie-break and I didn't do anything, 

Closed with a red, that took my P&L just little under the breakeven point.

And I went like: "That's very easy to recover, let's just end this day with a balanced P&L, or even a a small green, if things go the right way".

Laid Haase. He took an early break and was clearly dominating. Shortened the red (enlarging the daily red) and switched to Kvitova v Minella, that was already under way and Minella was already a break up and best prices had gone. I laid Kvitova anyway, she came back and won the first set, and cruised the second for the match

Nothing live today, shame because I could watch Casablanca on tv, better than crap streaming.

I'd fancy Pliskova to beat Vinci, but Vinci's price is already drifting.

Camerin to beat Beck. Camerin made a huge effort against Zakopalova and Beck should be easier. The young German also has a weak serve.

Peer to beat Cadantu, as the Rumanian should be tired after yesterday's match, while Peer had a comfortable round against Craybas.

Winston Salem - New Haven QF

S Darcis - T Berdych: pick Darcis @4.6 1 unit
This odds well worth a small try.
Darcis seems on fire, reaching quarterfinal after three matches as underdog.
The hugest, no need to explain, was yesterday against Roddick.
It took two tie-break, and it's another great result give the great serve of Andy.
As I watched couple of game I must say that Darcis isn't a bad player, he uses some variation of rhythm slowing with slice backhand then hitting winners with the forehand.
And though a not great first serve percentage (61%) he conceided, and saved, only one break point.
Talking about precentages the one of Berdych's first serve was horrible: 47%. This to me mean that he's not in agreat shape, above all mentally, and mental skills are his best. If the experienced Roddick didn't manage to find a weak point in Darcis, harder will do it Berdych.
Moreover Darcis leads the head to head 2-0, with a recent 6-4 6-4 at the Olympics.

L Safarova - P Kvitova: pick Safarova @2.70 1 unit
Big surprise that they've never met, officially at least since they belong to he same tennis club and know each other very well.
Petra has had two busy week winning Montreal then losing in semifinal in Cincinnati.
Going deep also this week seems suicidal, given that US Open are next week.

-2
About Darcis - Berdych:
Odds were wrong? Maybe.
The match could be divided into two parts.
Against all the evidences the first part do not coincide with the first set, it was shorter.
Darcis started very well, with a solid serve and a well working plans in his mind: playing sliced backhand possibly crossed to Berdych's backhand, so that he could not accelerate; and from that scenario there were many possible way to win the point: Berdych's unforced, Darcis hitting forehand winner from baseline; one of them approaching the net, ending up with Darcis winning with a volley or passing when the opponent was a the net.
Things worked since the 5-2, with a double break in favour of belgian.
Berdych breaking back to 5-3 could be intended as a drop of tension given by the wide lead.
Darcis won the set on his service but it was just an accident: the plan he drawed was lost and he couldn't find it in the rest of the match, playing as Berdych said "back and back and by the end he was close to the fans, which is the way I need to play with the guys."

Wimby Ladies' QF/ Gentlemen's R16

S Williams - P Kvitova: pick Kvitova @2.42 1 unit
T Paszek - Azarenka: pick Paszek @4.5 1 unit
A Radwanska - M Kirilenko: pick Kirilenko @4.33 1 unit

Seems the underdog fest, but at this point anything worth a (small) try.
1) Williams  - Kvitova could be one of the shortest match ever. Huge serve, and big winner on the return. The head to head are in Serena's favour, both played two years ago, one on a Wimbledon semifinal. Petra should be a bit moer experienced now.
2) The less convincing one, but Paszek is on a 9 win streak on grass, defeating some good grass courter like Vinci, Pironkova and Kerber. All favours on Vika fresh number 1 WTA... could it distract her? ... Oh a great funny thing: this match has been QF also last year, Vika won and then lost to Kvitova that could be again her opponent if Petra beats Serena. I say Vika dislike it, and she probably will knows who's her opponent when she get on the court.
3) This could be a long piece since I've seen bit of both previus matches of them.
From the start: Aga leads the h2h 5-2, and won last 4 in a row, but they haven't ever met on grass.
Aga's run has been much more hard than the Kiri's one: Vesnina, Watson, Giorgi for the polish; Cirstea and Peng for Kiri.
Both can play a versatile tennis, but Aga seems to be not in the mood of doing so (like it's said about Murray), so she prefers play unaggressive strokes, a meter above the net waiting for the opponents to get unbalanced, or an opponent's errors. Taking yesterday's match stats: Aga won 63 points, 30 were Giorgi's unforced and 11 are Aga's winners.
On Giorgi's serve Aga records 2 winners and 1 unforced. To me this mean that Aga is a good returner but doesn't take any risk. Obviously Giorgi serves very fast but how can you...? Hasn't Aga got any occasion to attack on a second serve? Has her never tried a long line deep return? NO. She rather return short, on the very centre of the field, or a bit deeper at the body sometimes, even if Giorgi could hit winner from there.
Unluckily Kiri is a bit smarter than Giorgi. Kiri can anticipate on mid court bounce to hit a winner from both side. Kiri will hit less winner than Giorgi but also Aga will have less unforced to help her. Kiri with the feet inside the field keeps the brain on, she place both it winners or place the ball and approach the net, not like Giorgi that in similar situations looks like she's got the brain on 'off mode' and hitted the ball hard nevermind were it'll go nor where the opponent's was placed nor what could she do if the opponents retourn it...
I'd like to say many other things (Kiri's deep serve, Kiri's slice bh) but it's enough for now.

I also have yesterday's pending: Fish and Mayer.

All picks lost -3
I've seen Vika playing some volleys, I'd never thought her to be able to, like she's still improving.