ATP / WTA Moscow and Luxembourg picks - tuesday

So many matches to study and so many matches at the same time as well, that is very difficult to work out something really good.

ATP Moscow
Kravchuk played a good match against Korolev. Good baseline solidity due to his low risk style: he's got that kind of softness of strokes from both sides, seemed to me very close to Seppi, resulting in a bit of spin above all on the forehand that makes him bear long rallies without unforced errors, while the opponents (yesterday Korolev) at one point can't bear it anymore and throws the ball away. He's also got that tricky way to serve with the low toss of the ball (like Almagro and Dolgopolov) that provides him many aces (16 yesterday), though some problems with the second serve.
Ito is good on hard courts though and solid on the baseline, and this time it's likely that Kravchuk is the first one to get rid of the rally. Kravchuk might face some chances to break, and if he manage to convert, a three setter or over looks like a good option.

I honestly don't know what to do with other matches.

WTA Moscow
There are some very interesting matchups among the ladies due to the many head to heads.

4-all between Zakopalova and Safarova. I still think that Safarova's thoughts are elsewhere (Fed Cup's final) though if she doesn't play matches the risk is that she won't be charged for that event.
There's also a nice amount of points to defend since she made the semifinal last year.
Then... Lucie has won last two encounters, in 2011 the balance has been 2-2, and Zakopalova's other wins are much older.
And more... the surface isn't much fast, it's slow indeed and the ball gets stuck when bounces, and bounces are also high, this to me is an advantage for Lucie: she can find the right timing, and she needs it given that her flat strokes don't allow her many solutions about the ball-strings impact.
I'll back Safarova @1.66. Very easily though, since there's no tv-coverage and ... you know.

Surprisingly Arvidsson leads the head to heads against Bartoli. 4-2. Not much surprise that they're all aged.
Arvidsson is great indoor depending much on her serve, Bartoli has got a great return though. Without the serve and with baseline skills that can't be compared I see few chances for the swedish.

Neat 5-1 for Cibulkova over Pironkova. The only win for the bulgarian is the most recent encounter though, at this years Olympics.
Now... Pironkova's years has been tremendous, it's already two years in a row for her, and I don't think beating Lepchenko is enough to consider it finished.
Cibulkova though, she's defending champion, has said that she's found the surface different from last year.
On a faster court, even with lower bounces, she can do something good hitting her counterattack, but to make this she needs power or flatter strokes from her opponent and she needs to run from side to side along the baseline. Pironkova's strokes are everything but this. They're soft and spinned, and she's weird, and likely Cibu to recover will step into the court or hit beyond the double's lines, and I don't know how she'll react to all of this, the head to heads say well, but last Cibu's win is back in 2010.
Cibu's win is the most likely outcome, odds aren't tempting though.

Wozniacki - U. Radwanska. 2-0 h2h.
This will be a long match, with the two of them unable to hit a winner and the ball bouncing from side to side in everlasting rallies.
In such a matchup the physical condition is a relevant factor.
Wozniacki has played many matches last month and she said she lack of preparation...
I'm going to Lay Wozniacki @1.29.

WTA Luxembourg
Back Rybarikova @1.75
For what I saw from her in the first roung against Suarez-Navarro.
She played very close to the baseline an covering it with great easiness.
She plays a bit offensively, and manage to slow down with sliced backhand when the opponent take the lead of the rally.
Dominguez-Lino although the long career has got a 3/4 indoor record.

In here I'm also thinking about backing Rus against Hantuchova, whose movement where very bad last week in Linz; and backing Keothavong, high odds since she's 2-0 in the h2h and both where indoor, she was semifinalist last year.

ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks

I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.

Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.

The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.

After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.

Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.

WTA Linz 

Yesterday.

Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.

Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.

Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.

Today.

Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.

Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.

I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.