Charleston WTA - R16

Some matches with drama but only two underdog winning: Bouchard beated Robson, and Burdette beated Lisicki. Both Robson and Lisicki are in questionable form and I'm not surprised about these results.

In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :

• The price of Mattek-Sands is too short for me, I explain it by the fact BMS upsetted Stephens as underdog; Keys is a powerful baseliner, I think she'll win most of the long rallies. 
• Petkovic after her comeback is still struggling to win two matches in a row; on the other hand Wozniacki has been put back into perspective by some results as the early loss against Muguruza in Miami. I think also here the odds don't reflect the real values of the two players

Same kick-off time for these two, I'm not sure which one I'll live-trade.

• I don't know Vogele, while I hardly trust Goerges: her offensive style grants her either many winners or many unforced errors and I find it hard to predict.
• Serena-Burdette... As I wrote after the first round Serena didn't look much interested, it may worth a lay
• Pegula is the biggest surprise of this tournament coming through two rounds of the qualies, and then Muguruza and Barthel. She's good reasons to be tired after 5 matches but she's rested yesterday. Also tired because of the two dramatic previous rounds could be Jankovic. This could be an interesting match to trade, I think momentum will switch many times, I'm quite sure its going to be a three setter. 
• A bit short the odds on Lepchenko otherwise I'd fancy to pick her. I don't trust Venus too much.
• Safarova isn't in a good period, she had 4 consecutive loss before this week, she's been runner-up last year, though. Cirstea on the other hand is having a great season, and this green clay I think is a good surface for her, halfway between the most common clay and hard, she might pull the upset.
• Also Bouchard is having a great season showing great improvements, she's into the R16 coming from the qualies. Stosur this season has been just average, not too bad not too good, being her one of the big name I'd expected odds more short though, and in that case I'd have picked Bouchard.

All this said... I won't pick anything pre-match and just monitorate it all live.

Charleston WTA

Yesterday it was a very poor day for my pre-match bets: all three were completely wrong: Tatishvili was run over by Lisicki, the german girl looks at her ease on this surface (she won the title in 2009 and was quartefinalist last year).

My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.

As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.

Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.

Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.

Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).

To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.

Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.

Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.

Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.

Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.

Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched  all the green on Jankovic).

Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.

A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults. 

Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.

I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.

 

   

Charleston WTA

Single draw

I've decided to focus on Charleston: Monterrey's time zone makes it a couple of hours later than I could afford to operate the way I like as I'll try also some in-play action.
Beside this also the fact that the transition of surface could cause some "wrong" odds, influenced by recent results on hardcourts (both Indian Wells and Miami were slow as claycourts, though); and the fascinating view of the Georgian house on the background of the Althea Gibson court.



Yesterday I traded Govortsova - Hampton.
Pre-match I thought Hampton wasn't very good on clay and was surprised to see her around 1.50, I've last seen her on clay in the Fed Cup tie against Italy.
Govortsova made a great start and went 5-0 up in the first set before Hampton started firing with full power putting pressure on Govortsova, after a 4 games come back Govortsova served out the set 6-4.
The beginning of the second set was like last part of the previous one with Hampton having the momentum and going 3-1 up. At that point of the match the american had won 7 of last 9 games.
Then she runned out of fuel and lost the pace allowing Govortsova to come back.
With many breaks of serve (both were playing very bad) Hampton also had the chance to serve for the set on 5-4, but failed. She eventually won the tie-break.
Into the deciding set Govortsova found back the intensity of the first set, made of anticipations and angles (her coach said she should be more creative) not that her style suit much to claycourts but still was better than Hampton, and eventually and fairly won.
The belarussian had a medical time out at half of the third set and got her left knee taped, she seemed bothered by it for the whole match(the time-out was before she went to serve though, usually purely tactical time-outs are taken before the opponent goes to serve).
Much more could be done from me on this match, I still have to work on selfconfidence and get rid of pre-built convictions: I've sensed Govortsova had the momentum early in the third set but I stayed on my conviction that Hampton would eventually prevail if she managed to level it up and hit hard as she had done between first and second set so I left the greater green on Hampton.

Much more I pulled out of Johansson - Czink, even though I traded less since it was a non-televised match.

I regret to have left unattempted Soler-Espinosa - Schiavone.
I don't know Soler-Espinosa, but Schiavone should be always laid recently, above all when she's favorite.

Today I'll live trade Tatishvili - Lisicki or Hantuchova - Erakovic both starting at 16 CET.
Both Hantu and Erakovic aren't claycourter and I expect the momentum to switch many times.
In the other one Lisicki who has had many ups and downs so far in this season is strong favorite but Tati is a better claycourter. I'm very tempted to lay Lisicki's price, currently at 1.2.

Other bets.

A. Tatishvili - S. Lisicki pick Tatishvili +5.5 games 2 units @2.05 Lost -2
As already said I won't give a margin that wide to Lisicki, Tatishvili is a player not so powerful so Lisicki can't use her opponent's pace and has to dictate it herself.

Y. Putintseva ( 1.5 Sets) - J. Goerges (-1.5 Sets) pick Putintseva +1.5 sets 2 units @2.08 Lost -2
Putintseva is a counterpunher that might like Goerges' offensive style. Putintseva has had some good results on clay in her junior career.

L. Robson - E. Cabeza Candela pick Cabeza-Candela 2 units @2.30 Lost -2
Robson hasn't had much time to practice on this courts, she played the double final in Miami on sunday.
Also the spaniard is a better claycourter and Robson's single results have been quite bad recently.

-6

WTA Linz pick - Semifinal

I'm going to give a chance to Flipkens, back @2.66.
Well, said like this looks like she hasn't any chance to win, while what I actually think is that she's got many, and that her recent form gives her many.
The belgian won 15 of her last 16 matches, losing only to Azarenka at the US Open, and already caught an indoor title in Quebec City.
I've only seen her 1st set against Ivanovic, so far this week.
It was somehow impressive: Ivanovic was playing well and looked confident like she hasn't been for much time, but yet Flipkens was there, close behind the serbian, and you hardly noticed her since she was silent and unshowy.
She's an all around player, not an hard hitter though. She'll cause trouble to Goerges in the same way she did yesterday to Ivanovic, making her move from side to side on the baseline, also pushing the german beyond the drive with the forehand. Both Goerges and Ivanovic have many problems about movements and balance.

 

ATP Shanghai & WTA Linz picks

I'm not understanding much about Shanghai Master.

Everything, every match, looks normal and weird at the same time.

The impression is that nobody really cares about this tournament, above all the ones that must care (see Almagro and Monaco), and everyone would rather go back home or Europe as well. Same for Osaka WTA.

After this dutiful introduction, I'm going to say that also today I don't like most of the match, and even in the ones tempting me I won't try, at least pre-match.

Only one pick but with very low stake, since there isn't TV coverage: back Dolgopolov @2.3. If the ukranian is in one of his good days his lot of spins, pace variations and all oddities he's capable of might cause many trouble to Simon. The frenchman needs pace and to work on the baseline using opponent's stokes for his own purpose, returning ball that comes to him very different from each other doesn't suit to his style.

WTA Linz 

Yesterday.

Martic played a good match yesterdays, and altough she wasn't able to detach her nerves kept the grip and won mostly with her serve. Not bad also from Cirstea, she only lost control after she got broken in the second set, many winners from her mostly with the forehand.

Another good match was the one between Mattek-Sands and Paszek. The american feels really good on this surfaces showing how you should play in indoor (the sort of transformation Tsonga does when he passes from hard-outdoor to indoor or grass), this is well supported by her skills of double player.

Solid serves, deepness from the baseline bringing her many winners, and great net coverage.

Today.

Should be an easy win for both Azarenka and Lisicki, more interesting the other matches.

Back Hradecka @2.02. Both Arvidsson and Hradecka are good indoor players and already reached a final (losing) early this year. I think the czech is the more complete one though, she's also a great double player, while the swedish has got a solid serve and a powerful forehand but lacks of agility angles and often also nerves.

I also lean, but won't try before seeing a bit the match, for lay Ivanovic @1.17 as she's got to think about the Fed Cup and her forehand could suffer Niculescu's forehand (sliced and tricky, forcing winners against it easily drives to errors); and for back Oprandi @3 as Goerges wasn't the same of Beijing and if Oprandi dropshots as she can the german might easily suffer for she's very bad in movements.