Showing posts with label Bolelli. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bolelli. Show all posts

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Genova Challenger - Day 5 - SF

So it'll be a Italy vs Spain for a spot in the final.
[4]Volandri - [7]Montanes
[5]Bolelli - Robredo

As already said Volandri is playing a great tennis, nearly the best he can.
Giannessi , with a rain-suspension, and Gutirrez-Ferrol had been good tests.
Harder roads for the spaniards.
Three sets in in each prevoius round for Robredo, while Montanes was strong with the strongs and weak with the weaks: two three setter in 1st and 2nd round, 2 set against Seppi in the quarterfinal.
Bolelli reached the semifinal more for his easy route and opponents demerit than for his merit.
He looked always a bit tired and bit bothered of playing, his opponent were too weak though and in the distance they collapsed: just yesterday Fabbiano in the first set came back from  5-2 to 5-5 then lost 7-5 the set.

Hard to say who will prevail, above all between Bolelli and Robredo.
The low shape and confidence showed by Bolelli make him the underdog, on the other hand Robredo should pay for his efforts.
I'm expecting two three sets matches, though I'm not going to risk too much on it and I'll go with a double
Volandi @1.66 lost
Bolelli @1.83 lost
Double 2 units @3.05

-2
As my tennis teacher would say, Volandi lost beacuse he was playing too much good.
The first set was played perfectly, as Volandri had played in all his previus matches.
But the mental effort of playing such a good tennis, had an high price and Volandri paid it little by little losing metres on the court, losing also the leading of the rally.
His opponents without showing great solutions went 5-3, Volandri broke back to 5-5, but again paid the effort in the tie-break, 7-1 the score.
Montanes def. Volandri 1-6 7-6(1) 6-3

Fair score in the other semifinal as Robredo showed his superiority, mental grip and all his desire to win also at this level, a bit inferior compared to his past.
He is the right favoured for the title. 
7-5 6-2 the final score over Bolelli.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Genova Challenger - Day 4 - QF

Local players easily pushing.
Easy win for #1 Seppi in the crowded Centre Court.
After the insecurities showed in the first match, everything seemed to have gone back to his best period.
In the beginning of each set Seppi broke his opponents serve and then cruised to an easy win. 6-2 6-3.

Greater easiness showed by #4 Volandri in his 6-3 6-0 win over Begemann.
One of the best match he's played recently, although it wasn't a relevant test Volandri showed his best not simply playing from the baseline but putting on the court all his skills and trying to win the point as soon as possible with many net approach.

More effort for the two spaniards Robredo and Montanes, the only ones who can contest the win apart from the italians. Three sets match for both against lower level opponents.

Two picks for today:
Simone Bolelli - Thomas Fabbiano: over 19.5 games 2 units @2.00 +2
Fabbiano made a great come back against the funny Brown yesterday.
He looked solid from the baseline and even mentally to return most of the oddities he had to deal with.
Bolelli still feels bad with his touch and also loses focus more times in a single match.
Fabbiano could at least push up to a tie-break if he manage to exploit these blank moments.

A Seppi - A Montanes: Seppi 4 units @1.44 -4
Very unusual bet on such an odd for me but I can't see #1 Seppi losing today, and maybe also tomorrow and the final.
The match is scheduled at the same time Seppi was scheduled yesterday, there will be the sold out, and Seppi is the only player can make it happen again and again.

-2
I knew Seppi's odd was somehow weird, just as Lorenzi's odd in the first round was but I couldn't resist nad so...


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Genova Challenger - Day 2

Rain stopped Volandri - Giannessi, where Volandri was serving while 2-1 down after winning the first set tie-break.

Little surprise as Vagnozzi won with an easy come back over the US qualified Andreozzi. 6-7(2) 6-2 6-1.

Bit of trouble for two seeded player.
Bolelli [5] struggled more against himself and his lack of confidence to beat the frenchman Robert.
Bolelli was the one to lead rallies with Robert playing as his compatriot Gilles Simon, containing his opponents strokes up to an unforced error or to the very right moment when the frenchman could hit a winner, usually a flat backhand down the line. His placement on the court and the distance from the ball at the moment of hitting it seemed a bit approximate resulting in Robert being sometimes too close to the bounce or hitting the ball too close to the body with arms not stretched.
Bolelli on the other hand struggled against character problems, looking sometimes not in the fancy of playing, stopping running, not following his attacks approaching the net: many times he was late on it, resulting in finding himself in the middle of the court instead of being close to the net, and with Robert hitting an easy passing shot.
Luckily for him he has a day off to recover from this long match: 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5

Today's match looks more interesting.
Even if Fognini seems about to withdraw, today there will be the #1 seeded Seppi facing young ('92) qualified n.330 ATP Olivo. Under 18.5 game @2.00 seems a fair line but I'll skip.

The one I consider a must-to-see is seeded #3 Lorenzi facing the funny Dustin Brown.
First meeting between the two.
Two opposite style: the serve and volley of the jamaican-german and the defensive baseline of the italian.
This very surface seems slow and with high bounce, conditions pushed further by the rain and humid of these days.
This makes Brown's work harder, cause his power serve will lose efficacy has already showed his early lost in the double, paired with Dlouhy, though being #2 of the seeding.
Baseline solidity of the italian should easily prevail and also here under 22.5 games looks a good line though I'd rather pick Lorenzi @1.53 in a multiple bet.

Also last match of the day seems very interesting.
The player who opened a new era for the tennis - the post Nadal era - is back at his level after failing to qualify for US Open's main draw.
An evergreen Robredo is a very tough test, though.
I see, as odds suggest, Robredo winning though I think a three sets battle should be fair enough as Rosol pushing on his serve and Robredo returning anything could make the match tense and player suffering highs and lows of foucus. The over 22.5 games is not well paid though since I don't really trust Rosol.

I'll go with a fun triple bet just to follow some match:
Seppi - Olivo under 18.5 games @2.00
Lorenzi @1.53
Rosol - Robredo over 22.5 games @1.83
@5.62



Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Wimby Gentlemen's QF and other

No picks in Wimbledon for today.
I can't see any underdog upset his opponent.

The 13-0 head to head record in Federer - Youzhny clearly explain the mood with of Youzhny when he faces the swiss. There's to check Roger's back trouble, just in case...

Djokovic is just to much for Mayer. It's diffucult to say if Mayer is doing his best or not when he's on court. It's his attitude. Looks like his rival phoned him the day before because he was searching someone to play tennis, Mayer politely accept but his body language express the wish to be somewhere else.

Tsonga - Kolschreiber. I say Jo, to much powerfull and balanced. But the german seems a bit underrated expecially on grass, at higher odds (over @4 - @4.5) I'd have a thought.

Ferrer - Murray. They've never met on grass. The head to head only shows which is who's favourite surface, (with the equalize in hard-indoor). Also here there's a big attitude fight, Ferrer is one to respect for his combativeness (bit less for defensive tennis).
Murray... is one you can't like. And I say this being someone who potentially like Murray. Potentially. Because he lack of everything and seems irrimediably gone the time when he could change, he could place the piece to complete the puzzle. Of the fab4 only Federer was technically better than Murray, but he hasn't complete his own. He has remained 'potential'.

I have two picks of lower tournament.
From Biella ITF
Brianti - Burnett: pick Burnett @2.10 2 units
Young Burnett ( '92) is growing up pretty well.
Her groundstrokes are really heavy. She uses a great serve to build up the point.
Brianti is one of those great waste of talent, unluckily her hand isn't supported by her athletism.
The backhand is the best stroke for both, but Brianti's one-handed looks too much gently toward Burnett's double-handed.

Some challenger with an impossible name.
J Zopp - S Bolelli: pick Bolelli @2.00 2 units
Bolleli, for those who don't know, could be called the italian Gulbis.
It's hard to understand how one who was a top 30 who scared better ranked can't stay still in top 100.
Zopp is talented is in a pretty good period but he isn't on Bolelli level if the italian little mind.
Pick's all about Bolelli that always deserve a try as underdog.

Both mine won in two set +4.2