Thursday, December 20, 2012

20/12 Slalom ladies - Are

I said I would try again pre-draw picks trying to anticipate drop in the odds, I couldn't find any odd good enough for it.
Anyway, some odds for today's race.

h2h Schild - Zettel - pick Zettel 2 units @2.44 Void 0
Schild didn't start her season as good as expected, for her also a 2nd place is below average.
Zettel made the opposite, with podiums both in GS and SL.
Schild yesterday didn't start the GS, for a flu.

h2h Gagnon - Zahrobska - pick Gagnon 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Huge difference in starting bib: Gagnon #9, Zahrobska #22, meaning Zahrobska will find a slope in worse conditions.
Also difference in shape as Gagnon is doing good in different disciplines, while Zahrobska is below her standards and maybe lacks of summer training due to a surgery.

h2h Poutiainen - Shiffrin - pick Shiffrin 2 units @2.18 Won +2.36
Over the even I'll always fancy the young talented Shiffrin. She's growing up and keeping a good constancy in results.
Poutiainen not bad so far, but Shiffrin seems always able to reach top placements.

h2h Mielzynski - Wikstroem - pick Mielzynski 1 unit @1.91 Won +0.91
Very low stake pick as both aren't constant.
I back Mielzynski that after last World cup slalom, almost a month ago in Aspen, raced in Nor-Am Cup with great results although other racer weren't at her level.
Wikstroem hasn't got official race since Aspen.

+1.27
Schild's flu, turns up to be a knee injury, didn't start and it's been better as Zettel went out in run1.
Gagnon is very aggressive, the day she puts together without mistakes the two runs she'll be very near to the podium.
Shiffrin get her first career win and is also Slalom's leader, definitively she's among the Big.
Also nice runs for Mielzynski, very smooth, clean. Wikstroem out.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

"There's a little black spot on the sun today"?

Following this post, I made yesterday where I was questioning whether bookies know the existence of the WCSL, the Standing that rules the draw of the starting list, and that is different from other standings, that award the Cups. 
The answer I dare give is "No, they don't". And altough the way they set up the head to heads is still a mystery, form conditions, and recent results seem the main factors they value.

These are the starting bib in the head to head I selected: 
Pinturault #15 - Neureuther #3
Byggmark #11 - Deville #2
Matt #4 - Moelgg #19

Here the odds before and after the draw of the starting list for the Slalom in Madonna di Campiglio.


  
The movements I expected actually took place.
Deville - Byggmark had only a little shiver, and I suppose recent results/shape is playing a big role in this head to head.

As girls are racing a Slalom and a Giant-Slalom in next days, I'll try again this sort of pre-draw pick, before "copyrigthing" this as pre-race trading (actually it's not trading since exchanges don't offer much liquidity on this sport, above all before the start of the race).  
If they still leave evidences of such a ignorance this is going to be a quite good method, at least for our health, as going all green is always nice, above all in a sport where anything can happen at any moment. 

Monday, December 17, 2012

Men' Slalom - Madonna di Campiglio

So, let's try to understand how head to head are set up.
Here's three pick I've done BEFORE the draw of the starting bibs.

h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Neureuther 2 units @2.02
h2h Byggmark - Deville - pick Deville 1 unit @2.25
h2h Matt - Moelgg - pick Matt 2 units @1.95

Pinturault - Neureuther
In this order they made 2/3 of the podium of last Slalom in Val d'Isere, where Alexis Pinturault achieved his first WC win. For Neureuther it was one of the many career podiums.

Every thing was a bit special in that weekend. Pinturault winning his first race, in his country, in a discipline that isn't his favourite. The following day a big mistake few gates away from the finish line probably prevented him from double the success, on the day that Ligety showed he's human finishing 3rd place.

In an inverse order they stand in the Slalom standing: Neureuther 3rd place with 116 points, followed closely by Pinturault with 108.

So all this points to a close head to head... but there's something missing.
The starting list doesn't follow the "Overall Standing" or the "Discipline Standing" (Slalom in this case), but another standing called World Cup Start List (WCSL), different for each of the four discipline.
In Slalom's WCSL Neureuther is 4th place, meaning he's in the first group and he can start with bib from 1 to 7, racing on a slope in good conditions. In WCSL Pinturault is 11th so his starting bib will be between 8 and 15, included, meaning condition could be worse and he'll take the start afterward anyway and this cause a drop of the odds.

Byggmark - Deville
Here momentums are in big contrast, if comapred to previous season. Deville struggles to find back his shape with a DNF and a 7th place. While Byggmark has little find himself after some seasons fighting with a change of style that sent him away from top placements; now seems to have find a good balance and had a good beginning with a 3rd and a 5th place.
Byggmark is 4th in the Slalom standing, while Deville is 14th.
Form for sure makes Byggmark big favored, for this, but again relying in the WCSL I'm pretty sure this odd will have a drop as Deville still as a spot in the first group, 5th, while Byggmark is in the second, 8th.

Matt - Moelgg
Also here there's a clash of shape, as there's been in previous seasons.
After coming near to retire, austrian Matt made some great season and gained the first group of the WCSL.
Moelgg, also fought with fitness and now is well out of the two group og the WCSL, being 19th.
This season however is inverting again the momentum with Moelgg climbing the standing with a 4th an a 11th placement in previous Slaloms, while Matt is doing average with a 8th, and a disqalification in Soelden due to technical measurement in his skis.

With this picks I want to see if they know the existence of the WCSL, a drop in these odds could prove it's so.
The fact that there haven't been races in this slope recently will reduce the variables from stats about results on this slope in other season.

Friday, December 14, 2012

14/12 Men Super-G - Val Gardena and Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere

Very rich calendar this weekend, and also following next week.

Men Super-G - Val Gardena

h2h Theaux - Guay - pick Theaux 2 units @3.11 win +4.22
Although he's very constant in his results, above all in this very slope, Erik Guay seems to be missing something that prevent him from very big results, recently. He's not at his best among turns, while long flat sections are his natural enviroment. So a Super-G doesn't suit hime too much.
Theaux showed lots of improvements in past season, and confirmed that with a 2nd place in the Super-G of Lake Louise.

Jansrud to podium 1 unit @2.25 lost -1
Track made by Norway's coach, and norvegian reportedly in top shape.

Ladies Downhill - Val d Isere

h2h Gut - Goergl - pick Goergl 3 units @2.12 lost -3
Starting number: Gut #2, Goergl #19.
Explanation of this odds is: they where expecting a storm or something so Gut starting early could avoid it.
But







So Gut will race almost blindly, while Goergl will have reports from racer who've completed the race before her start.
Goergl made better time in both time-trial.


+0.22

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Alpine skiing World Cup - types of bets and exchange markets

Following from here, where I gave an introduction to the alpine skiing, as it's not so popular, now I'll talk about types of betting.

DISCLAIMER: everything I write comes from me and my experience, which is made from my observation point -sitting here on my chair at the PC-, there isn't nothing technical, nothing coming from "inside": neither pro-skiing, nor bookmaker.


Types of bets

There are several types: head-to-head (h2h), winner, podium and others.

Winner and podium are simple as you think, but remember that some events has got two runs.

Head-to-Head: this type of bet compares the final position of two racer.
I don't know the criteria that bookies use to set up who's going h2h against who, in a h2h offered bet.
Not being a 1 vs 1 sport, but a 1 vs the field sport it's very uncertain how to set up the two names.
I guess they look at the standing of that speciality from the previous season and to recent form/results, that are similar[1] to the starting number the two can get[2]. Somehow they manage to set up close h2h.
I recognize that this is very subjective but this is my favourite type for may reason:
1) coming from my habit to make picks from tennis matches, this is where I find a comfortable area.
2) I'm an ill-study-methodist of styles either for tennis and skiing and I like this kind of clash.
Things can change very much from a discipline to an other, but even in a single discipline one slope could have very different features from another one and suit better to A than to B.
And I think that bookmaker don't have a great knowledge about this. Anyway for top skier differences are small, but for the majority of them these little things could influence their performance on a slope.
3) It's a matter of probability.
This is a cruel sport and a little error, like passing with one ski few centimeters away from the optimal line, could cause a great loss of time and even a DNF (Do Not Finish), because where your ski has passed there was a piece of ice and you didn't know and you're surprised by the change of grip of the ski and so you lose balance and fall down or manage to recover but you almost stop and lose time anyway.
So, in an high risk of fault sport, betting on h2h increase the probability of picking the right selection to 50-50 doesn't matter all the motivation about styles you give.

There's another type of bet, I don't use it, though, Backus none of my books offers it, but I find it a good one.
Winner of the group: pick the winner in a group (4, 5, or 6) of racer.
Again racer are set up by the book following unknown criteria.

Markets

This is a very poor sport and there isn't much liquidity.
Backers tend to back too high and layers tend to lay too low... many possibilities to be unmatched.
It's very hard to have a good trade.
Things go too fast (at least for me) and if you manage to back someone at a good price, and eventually he/she makes a good run likely all the unmatched money will be withdrew and you'll take the risk to not be able to cash out.
Also to notice that TVs are well behind the official live timing.
Anyway there are no bots, no sidecourters (sideslopers?).


General rules

If a racer doesn't start the run1, bet is voided.
In a h2h: the racer you selected doesn't finish, the opponent finish: you lose. And you win in the other way around. Void if both don't finish the race.


[1] Starting lists (WCSL) and Cup standings (WC) don't follow the same formulas to assign points, meaning they've got two separate standing (as if in tennis there were, say, ATP Ranking, and a Draw Entry Ranking).
Anyway at the beginning of the season they're the same, while as season goes on the placements affect the two rankings in different ways, but hardly they'll differ in a big way if the skier is constant enough in his/her results (I'll make a post on standings).
[2] Starting bib are drawn, but there are group in which one can be drawn. E.g.: number one of the Starting list ranking can draw any number from 1 to 7 as if Djokovic (n.1 ATP) at the coming Australian Open could be #1 of the seeding as well as #7.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Ladies Giant-Slalom - St.Moritz

h2h Fenninger - Zettel - pick Fenninger 1 unit @2.10 Lost -1
Zettel great form can't be ignored above all in Giant-Slalom where she had already got two 2nd place in the previous GS of htis season.
Anyway also Fenninger did good, and was the closer to Tina Maze, winner in Aspen's GS before she - Fenninger- felt down during the run2.
Tomorrow there will be a huge difference in the starting list between these two with Fenninger taking the start with the slope in perfect conditions as she's #1 and Zettel well behind and with a worse slope, as #14.

h2h Brignone - Karbon - pick Brignone 2 units @1.83 Lost -2
Again picking the difference in the starting list: #2 Brignone, #20 Karbon.
Brignone couldn't finish both previous GS but from the super-combined came a decent result there hope she'll do better in this event, that is her speciality.

h2h Gagnon - Poutiainen - pick Gagnon 1 unit @2.10 Win +1.1
Here the starting bib is against my pick: #10 vs #22.
Gagnon, though, showed a great form and improvements, also trying new events like Super-G and combined.
I think that the final part, very flat, needs a good sensibility, that to me Gagnon has got, while Poutiainen is a bit too heavy and could get struck in it.

-1.9

Fenninger out in run1 can't be commented.
Brignone out in run2 wasn't impressing but neither too bad, just averaged, maybe under her standards... reportedly she's suffering some ankle injury that really annoys her and she can't train hard.
Good Gagnon still improving.

In St.Moritz the slope offers a good variety for the GS.
In Val d'Isere very narrow slope but well inclined... strange comebacks in run2

Ladies Super-G - St.Moritz

H2H Fanchini - Cook - pick Fanchini 3 units @1.54 Lost -3
Fanchini made a good run yesterday, finishing in the top 15 in the Super-G run of the Super-Combined event.
Cook made not so good in the same event.
Here I also pick given the starting position of the two: Fanchini will be #27 while Cook #49, twenty number is a great difference and the condition of the slope will change in worse: there will create a channel, with a littel step that will made harder the way down and a loss of time if you can't follow that channel.

H2H Rolland - Smith - pick: Smith 2 units @2.11 Win +2.22
Pick already made in last Super-G, a week ago in Lake Louise, Canada.
Style motivation: Smith is a better in covering turns, while Rolland needs straight section where she can gain speed.

-0.78
Fanchini out, too faulty could be said; she can't find continuity in her results.

Right impression about Rolland: turns aren't good for her and she finish well behind.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Ladies Super-Combined - St.Moritz

Pick: Zettel to podium 1 unit @6 win +5
(Sorry, odds from yesterday now it a bit lower).
Zettel is in a good form recently and can do well enough is Super-G, and then get a good number to start the slalom, where she's a specialist, with the slope in good conditions.
Actually Maze, Vonn and Hoefl-Riesch are favoured but possibly at least one can fail and Vonn and Riesch haven't impressed so far this season.

H2H Zettel - Hosp, pick Zettel 2 units @1.93 lost -2
(Sorry again)
Same motivations as before, Zettel form is better than Hosp's one.

Podium: Maze, Hosp, Zettel

+3

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Alpine skiing world cup - an introduction


  
Dead bored by the tennis offseason.
Not the gut to follow silly exibition or pictures from holidays or whatever...
The world of sport (and betting) goes on somewhere else.
Alpine skiing is one of my favourite sports, my favourite winter one, and I've always followed and watched it.

First, very simple, they start from "the top", go down the slope and cross the finish line. The one who's took less time to complete the way down wins.
But...
1a - On you're way down you must pass through "gates",  meaning that both the skis must be on the same side of the gate - the right one.
1b - Not always you go down, take you're time, and it's done. Sometimes there's a second run to be done. And the sum of the times of both runs gives the total time, the smaller wins.

The 1b fact is because there are four event: Downhill, Super-G, Giant Slalom and Slalom. There are also Combined (Downhill + Slalom), Super-Combined (Super-G + Slalom) and City Event (on this there still be confusion and things to decide).

I don't know if it's clear the inclination
Downhill is pretty simple.
It's the faster event, you just need to create speed, keeping an aerodynamic position.
It's very spectacular, with turns faced up at high speed, long jumps and also (sometimes terrible) accident.
They can reach 200 kph.
Before every official race there are time trial so you know the slope and all the most crucial points.
It's the longest event though, say over two minutes to complete the race.
There's no second run, after you've skied down and through every gate you've got your time and can wait for the other make their race.

Super-G is a mix of Downhill and Giant-Slalom.
There are more turns, so the speed in lower than in the downhill.
Gates are at a bigger distance compared to Giant Slalom so in between the gates you increase your speed.
What makes Super-G particular is that there are no test before the race so you've go to "improvise".
Also here race are made only of one run.

Downhill and Super-G are "the fast disciplines" and usually athletes compete in both.

Giant Slalom is the mother of all disciplines, usually when you start skiing that's the one you're first introduced to.
Gates are very close - from 30 to 20 meters - and every gates means a change of direction.
A race is made by two runs. At the end of Run1 the top 30 qualify for Run2.
In Run2 the starting order is reversed: first starting athlete is 30th place of Run1, then 29, 28... last to take the start is 1st place of Run1.

Slalom is the most technique event, a lot of gates - around 60 - in a short slope.
There aren't high speeds but a great footwork is needed.
Turns aren't always left-right-left-right but there are tricks or "figures", as they're called, too.
Two runs with reversed order in the second one as said above.


Giant Slalom and Slalom are "the technique disciplines", and athletes use to compete in both.

Anyway at high level is difficult to be a top contender in all four, as you can imagine; so athletes are specialist of only one, max two disciplines.
This could give the size of each event.
*DH = Downhill
GS = Giant-Slalom
SG = Super-G
SL = Slalom
Only top athletes, the ones that aspires to the overall standing, the ones with masterclass talent and skills, compete in all events to gain points, even though very few.
Otherwise it would be hard, and esthetically embarassing - I assure you -, to see a downhill specialist in a slalom and the other way around; because different skills are required in every event.

To better understand, comparison with tennis could be very useful: the four specialities of alpine skiing could be thought as the four surfaces of tennis, then there's the tennis racket/skis comparison and other more specific.

More things to come about the standings, the starting list, and above all the odds and markets.