Charleston WTA - R16

Some matches with drama but only two underdog winning: Bouchard beated Robson, and Burdette beated Lisicki. Both Robson and Lisicki are in questionable form and I'm not surprised about these results.

In total opposition to yesterday, today I'm tempted to bet on almost all the underdogs :

• The price of Mattek-Sands is too short for me, I explain it by the fact BMS upsetted Stephens as underdog; Keys is a powerful baseliner, I think she'll win most of the long rallies. 
• Petkovic after her comeback is still struggling to win two matches in a row; on the other hand Wozniacki has been put back into perspective by some results as the early loss against Muguruza in Miami. I think also here the odds don't reflect the real values of the two players

Same kick-off time for these two, I'm not sure which one I'll live-trade.

• I don't know Vogele, while I hardly trust Goerges: her offensive style grants her either many winners or many unforced errors and I find it hard to predict.
• Serena-Burdette... As I wrote after the first round Serena didn't look much interested, it may worth a lay
• Pegula is the biggest surprise of this tournament coming through two rounds of the qualies, and then Muguruza and Barthel. She's good reasons to be tired after 5 matches but she's rested yesterday. Also tired because of the two dramatic previous rounds could be Jankovic. This could be an interesting match to trade, I think momentum will switch many times, I'm quite sure its going to be a three setter. 
• A bit short the odds on Lepchenko otherwise I'd fancy to pick her. I don't trust Venus too much.
• Safarova isn't in a good period, she had 4 consecutive loss before this week, she's been runner-up last year, though. Cirstea on the other hand is having a great season, and this green clay I think is a good surface for her, halfway between the most common clay and hard, she might pull the upset.
• Also Bouchard is having a great season showing great improvements, she's into the R16 coming from the qualies. Stosur this season has been just average, not too bad not too good, being her one of the big name I'd expected odds more short though, and in that case I'd have picked Bouchard.

All this said... I won't pick anything pre-match and just monitorate it all live.

Charleston WTA

Yesterday it was a very poor day for my pre-match bets: all three were completely wrong: Tatishvili was run over by Lisicki, the german girl looks at her ease on this surface (she won the title in 2009 and was quartefinalist last year).

My bad that beside that Tati +5.5 games posted yesterday I've also laid Lisicki and I wasn't able to decrease the liabilities.

As I expected Hantuchova-Erakovic was a better match for trading but unfortunately I experienced problems with the australian wallet and I couldn't enter that market. Erakovic won.

Other loss were the Putintseva +1.5 sets, at which I added an in-play small lay to Goerges. Goerges was never in danger red stayed there. The match wasn't televised.

Then there was Robson beating Cabeza-Candela.

Robson has been on a drift for the whole day but won in the end. That was I stupid pick though, since also the spaniard played a final on sunday at Osprey (a 50K $ tourney).

To save my day came Jankovic and Oudin. I can't say how much I was good on this one and how much luck was on my side.

Jankovic won the first set, not a surprise but also in that set there was the impression that Oudin was doing good things, she looked a bit to her limit, while Jankovic looked to have margin.

Anyway in the second set Oudin went on playing well while Jankovic instead of level up her game started being more faulty. Oudin served for the set at 5-4, was broken, but eventually won the set, she had like 7-8 set points.

Oudin winning that set was the key for my trading to go green, don't know what would have happened if Jankovic managed to force the american to the tie-break.

Having greened up I closed everything and I don't know what happened in the deciding set.

Looking at the result I'd say Ouding paid her effort, she was bound to keep it up and couldn't afford any drop of intesity to get the win; anyway I was happy with my green, that covered all my losses of the day and allowed me even a small gain, so I preferred not to risk any further (I'd have switched  all the green on Jankovic).

Later I watched Giorgi-Williams. The score says it right Williams had to fight, and Giorgi was putting big pressure during the rallies, but also Serena looked not very interested in the match.

A well focused Serena would have smashed up an opponent who made 12 double faults. 

Serena stays the one to beat but I wouldn't be shocked by a tank: she's defending champion but last year she went out of Miami at the quarterfinals. I've little laid Serena at 1.67 in the outright market.

I don't like anything today and I won't be live trading so my day is done.