OlymPICKs III and half

The 'half' stands for the third part had to be posted yesterday: I made my picks and started writing my piece when something stopped me, I don't even remember what, and in the whole day I haven't got back on.

Here's yesterday's:

Richard Gasquet - Marcos Baghdatis: Bagh to win @3.32 1 unit

Marin Cilic - Lleyton Hewitt: Hewitt to win @3.75 1 unit

But let's go on.

Roger Federer - Denis Istomin: pick Istomin @21.00 1 unit

Yeah, it's the King facing Istomin, but even Istomin doesn't worth this. 

I don't like him, I've watched few match of him in Wimby, where he had a great run, passing through an on-fire Seppi, Andreev, Federer's nightmare Falla and losing at the R16 7-5 in the fifth against Youzhny wasting some match point.

He's nothing special in technique, apart from a decent serve, he is slow on movement and doesn't hit that hard from both side, but he play on safety, with the ball well above the net, not giving pace to his opponent, and I can neatly see the Fed make lots of unforced on these weightless balls.

John Isner - Janko Tipsarevic: pick Isner @2.25 2 units

Yet two days ago I was against Tipso, I'll try again, this time facing Isner.

Maybe it's true that the real grass-court now are only in Newport, while all the others are going nearer to all other surface, Wimbledon's groundsmen admit that bounce are higher nowadays.

But Isner is always very tricky , and above all when playing for US: some months ago he beated Federer on clay in Switzerland and reapated against France in Davis Cup. 

David Ferrer - Kei Nishikori: pick Nishikori @5.33 1 unit

Can someone stop Ferru? He's succesfully playing since Auckland in genuary. Well he do this every season, building his ranking upon lower tournament, but seeing him doing great results also on grass well... it's weird that's all.

The young US-nippon talent has played about the half of Ferrer's matches, and his style is not even that energy wasteful, he's not an hard hitter and his movements are very gently, like the bally-dancer Davydenko, who he defeated in the previous round.

This is going to be a long baseline marathon match and even though the spirit Ferrer puts in every match I think he's going to have more difficultes than the odds shows, he should try more variation than he's used to, in order to pass through this gum-wall that will hit back everything.

Steve Darcis - Nicolas Almagro: pick Darcis @3.54 1 unit

I know this is going insane but this will be the last one.

Next round the winner among the two of them will play Murray.

So even losing to Darcis will be ok, no?

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Feliciano Lopez: pick Lopez @3.37 2 units

Jo comes from a 25-23 in the third against Raonic, a 4 hours match.

I can imagine the rallies hadn't go beyond the 3 hits, but it's hard the same. 

Jo won't be 100% fit, and Feliciano can be thougn on grass: leftie, great service, sliced backhand and great experience.

My odds on Lopez won't have gone over @2.50

Sabine Lisicki - Maria Sharapova: pick Lisicki @3.95 2 units

Well close to 4.00... just couple of weeks ago it was a 6-4 6-3 win for Sabine.

Maybe she's not going to replicate but again I'd made much lower odds

Close to hit the target with Sabine, I reckon that Sharapova playing in the same way in every situation, her not suffering lowering of focus.
Great delusion by F.Lopez, Almagro hate me, Roger (I read) not playing well and also got a rain suspension, Ferru finally stopped by Nishi, good work by Isner in the tie-break. Saved my day.
+0,83

ATP - 13/07

T Robredo - D Ferrer: pick Robredo +5 games @2.11 1 unit

Ferrer is one of those who hardly give their best facing friends, and I think he won't destroy Tommy, who is also on a very hot period. Maybe the +5,5 is better for it cover the 6-4 6-3, but my tendence to play 2/1 odds has prevailed.

A Ramos - G Dimitrov: pick Ramos @2.35 1 unit

I still don't trust Dimitrov at all. 

Moreover he's facing Ramos one of those typical clay-courter, defensive at the bone with top-spin, moonball, marathon runner, I don't see Dimitrov having enough patience to play many long rallies.

Can't decide what to do with Zopp-Hajek, Zopp's odds are tempting, but Hajek it's doing very very well.

E Cabeza Candela - Irina Begu: pick Cabeza Candela @2.53 1 unit

Again a spaniard clay-courter, with all the clay-weapon (unwinning strokes, moonballs...), facing an untrustworthy player. Begu can suffer of sudden loss of confidence and loose a match after she's had bunch of match point (some weeks ago lost from Schiavone while 6-1 in third set breaker).

On the other hand ECC did the opposite in her previous match coming back from 1-5 in the first set and winning it at the tie-break.

-3 Two unlucky third sets and a little change of mind about Dimitrov who is finding consistency.


Tennis week over, I'll be back again for the first round on next week's tournaments

Wimby Gentlemen's QF and other

No picks in Wimbledon for today.
I can't see any underdog upset his opponent.

The 13-0 head to head record in Federer - Youzhny clearly explain the mood with of Youzhny when he faces the swiss. There's to check Roger's back trouble, just in case...

Djokovic is just to much for Mayer. It's diffucult to say if Mayer is doing his best or not when he's on court. It's his attitude. Looks like his rival phoned him the day before because he was searching someone to play tennis, Mayer politely accept but his body language express the wish to be somewhere else.

Tsonga - Kolschreiber. I say Jo, to much powerfull and balanced. But the german seems a bit underrated expecially on grass, at higher odds (over @4 - @4.5) I'd have a thought.

Ferrer - Murray. They've never met on grass. The head to head only shows which is who's favourite surface, (with the equalize in hard-indoor). Also here there's a big attitude fight, Ferrer is one to respect for his combativeness (bit less for defensive tennis).
Murray... is one you can't like. And I say this being someone who potentially like Murray. Potentially. Because he lack of everything and seems irrimediably gone the time when he could change, he could place the piece to complete the puzzle. Of the fab4 only Federer was technically better than Murray, but he hasn't complete his own. He has remained 'potential'.

I have two picks of lower tournament.
From Biella ITF
Brianti - Burnett: pick Burnett @2.10 2 units
Young Burnett ( '92) is growing up pretty well.
Her groundstrokes are really heavy. She uses a great serve to build up the point.
Brianti is one of those great waste of talent, unluckily her hand isn't supported by her athletism.
The backhand is the best stroke for both, but Brianti's one-handed looks too much gently toward Burnett's double-handed.

Some challenger with an impossible name.
J Zopp - S Bolelli: pick Bolelli @2.00 2 units
Bolleli, for those who don't know, could be called the italian Gulbis.
It's hard to understand how one who was a top 30 who scared better ranked can't stay still in top 100.
Zopp is talented is in a pretty good period but he isn't on Bolelli level if the italian little mind.
Pick's all about Bolelli that always deserve a try as underdog.

Both mine won in two set +4.2