Outright winner: Stephens 1 unit @17 Lost -1
This is the only thing to say about yesterday: Stephens lost to Peng, and I didn't cover that so another point lost.
I wasn't around for other in-play trades yesterday.
I find today's match interesting, although at first I can't say what to expect.
Motivations should be high at this point of the week, so I believe all the contendants will fight hard.
Best price for me is Hampton's one.
I think there's value over 3.0 for the American, she's already pushed Vinci into a three setter on clay in their previous meeting during a Fed up tie.
Hampton can play at higher pace than Vinci, although she's suffer on slices.
I also like odds on Lepchenko.
Even though Kanepi is the best claycourter here, Lepchenko isn't this bad.
Kanepi won their last meeting (the only one between these two), Seoul, hardcourt, in September.
This also was last time Kanepi met a leftie and this could require a little bit to get used to different angles and all...
To little correct myself I'll add that I remembered to be Kanepi more powerful, while after watching her match against Cibulkova I'd say she's lost a bit of that power beside losing weight, and her style a power-with-margin kind of play could leave Lepchenko room to hit weird angles with her forehand, and on that cross Kanepi should have the greater troubles.
Peng is pushing hard from the baseline and this should create some problem to 'dropshot-queen' Oprandi.
I haven't seen Peng this week but I remember she was outplaying Errani in baseline rallies during the doubles final of Rome.
I'm not sure about her service game though, and also how she'll handle dropshots as she looks a bit lost when forced to play away from the baseline.
Hradecka v Larsson could be either a disaster or a nice drama.
Hradecka was a mess earlier this season and had to play some ITFs to find her shape.
She's more solid and has better serve. Odds are short on her fot me, though.
Pennetta shouldn't have problems facing Doi, although the Italian hasn't played so many back to back matches in a long while.
Bouchard is playing really well, she can cause troubles to Cornet.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - thursday
Tipical of me: after a good period (a short one in this case, just two days) I destroy everything I've built up.
So yesterday I've lost all the profits from Monday and Tuesday plus something.
And I wasn't even chasing or I've violated any of my self-imposed rule. I was just crap in every single match, indipendently from the match I've traded before.
Even worse I actually wrote what I was about to do and see in yesterday's post, but instead of acting like it was written in the screenplay I went for improvisation.
Little to say about Putintseva v Van Uytvanck match. The two were of different leagues.
Though after a couple of tight games and some shenanigans from Putintseva -she asked the umpire if it wasn't too cold to play- I believed she might be tanking as many are in this pre-Slam week. She wasn't.
Usual mistake from me: I didn't take the loss, and stayed with a bigger red. I keep doing it and it's very poor. I also lack of killer instict as Putintseva also went up to over 1.7.
Then there was Kanepi v Cibulkova, or better it was in the same time of the aforementioned match but that one was early locked. Kanepi suddenly went down to shite odds and there was little to do about that. I managed some small profits anyway. As the second set went further I believed Cibulkova was actually trying to win it, and thought I took a great price backing her at 3.3 (she had also better odds, but again I lacked of killer instict), so from an all-green, changes but still green, I found myself with a red on Kanepi who eventually won the tie-break of the second set and so the match.
Following this came Bouchard v Giorgi. Giorgi didn't solve her problems on the service, although percentage and double faults were better than in her previous match. Bouchard smartly changed her game starting to play Giorgi's one: tactic-less and random shot selection; because giving pace and letting the rallies go longer, and also playing rallies as a normal tennis player does, made the points leaning toward Giorgi. I sensed this tactical adjustament in Bouchard's game and so I thought also Giorgi would have sensed it.
And again I kept the red. I stayed with my she-still-have-time-to-level-it-up kind of thought.
Giorgi continued to play her game made of lookalike first and second serve and errors caused by her attemps to hit winners from every position and in any condition, looks like she hasn't got provisional shots.
With my surprise I also found loss on Arvidsson (v Peng), plus some pocket changes on Goerges v Vandeweghe: a small lay of Goerges believing her to be the kind of girl who'd rather tank and go shopping in Paris, shame she did so in later in the same day.
On other happier news Stephens survived to one and half match yesterday and into quarterfinals. Peng has the kind of game that suit her. I'd consider about backing Peng to little covers the liabilities, just in case...
No daily plan, which I eventually don't follow, today (only morning).
So yesterday I've lost all the profits from Monday and Tuesday plus something.
And I wasn't even chasing or I've violated any of my self-imposed rule. I was just crap in every single match, indipendently from the match I've traded before.
Even worse I actually wrote what I was about to do and see in yesterday's post, but instead of acting like it was written in the screenplay I went for improvisation.
Little to say about Putintseva v Van Uytvanck match. The two were of different leagues.
Though after a couple of tight games and some shenanigans from Putintseva -she asked the umpire if it wasn't too cold to play- I believed she might be tanking as many are in this pre-Slam week. She wasn't.
Usual mistake from me: I didn't take the loss, and stayed with a bigger red. I keep doing it and it's very poor. I also lack of killer instict as Putintseva also went up to over 1.7.
Then there was Kanepi v Cibulkova, or better it was in the same time of the aforementioned match but that one was early locked. Kanepi suddenly went down to shite odds and there was little to do about that. I managed some small profits anyway. As the second set went further I believed Cibulkova was actually trying to win it, and thought I took a great price backing her at 3.3 (she had also better odds, but again I lacked of killer instict), so from an all-green, changes but still green, I found myself with a red on Kanepi who eventually won the tie-break of the second set and so the match.
Following this came Bouchard v Giorgi. Giorgi didn't solve her problems on the service, although percentage and double faults were better than in her previous match. Bouchard smartly changed her game starting to play Giorgi's one: tactic-less and random shot selection; because giving pace and letting the rallies go longer, and also playing rallies as a normal tennis player does, made the points leaning toward Giorgi. I sensed this tactical adjustament in Bouchard's game and so I thought also Giorgi would have sensed it.
And again I kept the red. I stayed with my she-still-have-time-to-level-it-up kind of thought.
Giorgi continued to play her game made of lookalike first and second serve and errors caused by her attemps to hit winners from every position and in any condition, looks like she hasn't got provisional shots.
With my surprise I also found loss on Arvidsson (v Peng), plus some pocket changes on Goerges v Vandeweghe: a small lay of Goerges believing her to be the kind of girl who'd rather tank and go shopping in Paris, shame she did so in later in the same day.
On other happier news Stephens survived to one and half match yesterday and into quarterfinals. Peng has the kind of game that suit her. I'd consider about backing Peng to little covers the liabilities, just in case...
No daily plan, which I eventually don't follow, today (only morning).
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Week 21 - Brussels and Strasbourg - Wednesday
Oops!... I'm already losing grip. Actually yesterday I wrote a short post on Monday's trades and a short preview of what I expected from Cetkovska at her come back on court.
Recap of previous days
Monday:
Daniels v Domachowska. A terrible match. Daniels is very poor apart from her serve, no wonder her best career result is a final in a 10k. Domachowska won with experience, I could have made more profits Laying her after she won the first set (around 1.15) but unexpectedly she walked about the second set. The match was suspended by the rain with Domachowska serving 40-30, 3-2 up, greened-up leaving more green on Daniels expecting a sudden counter break. The match resumed indoor a without livescore so that green was left there.
Cepelova v Tsurenko. This was a great match, really entertaining. I liked Cepelova, she is a bit of all-around player, able to hit from every position, from both side, she also plays many slices. Weak point are volleys, which she plays drived. And as usual in WTA, she failed to serve the match out when 5-4 in the third. Again I missed a cheap lay there (ca. 1.22), I admit I wasn't expecting a break back as she also has a good serve. The many up and downs of the match granted me a good profit even so, though.
Only red was Govortsova v Rus. Don't why I entered this one. They already were in the second set - I like to watch matches from the beginning - and Rus was leading after Govortsova won the first set. Olga took an MTO, though, and Rus meltdown. I left my red on Rus, as incredulous as Rus at how easily on could meltdown.
Tuesday:
Larsson v Cetkovska. Petra was very rusty in the first set, nothing was working, serve above all. In the second she found more confidence in her best stroke, the forehand, and was outplaying Larsson. She run out of petrol halfway through the deciding set, managed two tough holds to make it 2-2 and then 3-3 but Jola's shape had the better of Petra. Happy for the profit, happier for Petra, hope to see another big run from her at Wimbledon.
Bartoli v Giorgi. Given the tank was sensible from Bartoli, I had a smaller profit than I could afford. That's because I don't like this kind of match and also because Giorgi' serve -or lack of- would embarrass me if I was Bartoli.
Hantuchova v Torro-Flor. Small profit from this one because I entered while second set was already undergoing and also because I believed Hantuchova was better than her opponent in tie-breaker
Today
Lots of matches in Brussels from 10am as the whole day of yesterday went lost, while Strasbourg starts at 11am.
I think I'll start with Kanepi v Cibulkova and this probably will be the only match for me today as I'm off for the afternoon..
Current odds are quite crap.
I believe Kanepi is better than Cibulkova on clay, she also leads the h2hs 2-1 but none was played on clay, but below 1.8 I won't back her.
The trend of the match should be clear from the beginning: Kanepi's power of groundstrokes against Cibulkova's counterpounching.
Kanepi also has more points to defend, she made semifinal last year, while Cibulkova has quarterfinal.
With Roland Garros coming soon I think Cibulkova won't be too interested in those points, a signal of this lack of interest should be unforced errors and attemps to play shorter rallies, two things that don't belong to her usual game.
Another match of interest could be Giorgi v Bouchard.
Again I think odds on the favourite are a bit short.
I don't think Bouchard is this better than Giorgi.
If Giorgi has solved her problems with service percentage (probably not because she's been always like this) there could be a match and on the rally I'd make Giorgi slightly better.
Also beating a big name has the effect to reduce the odds the next round.
Anyway there are no h2h, strange because despite the Italian flag next to her name Giorgi plays almost exclusively in the U.S., so it's hard to foresee how the match could be.
My outright selection, Stephens, survived up to the third day, sad thing she's still got to complete her first match.
My outright selection, Stephens, survived up to the third day, sad thing she's still got to complete her first match.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Week 21 - WTA Brussels and Strasbourg
I'll try blogging again.
Activities with a better social acceptance on this side of the screen caught on me, leaving only the morning and a little window in late afternoon to watch tennis and even trade.
I usually need my time prepping matches and daily schedule when I'm trading, so I left it for a while, beside blogging.
Also bigger tournament, and ATP-WTA combined ones above all, aren't much in my liking; I feel more confortable with minor ones.
WTA is hitting the heart of Europe placing two tournaments in the centres of European political power.
WTA Premier, Brussels Open
Main Draw
Caroline Wozniacki was wild-carded to top seed the event. Her recent form is much questionable: she lost three first round on red clay, only managing a win over Soler-Espinosa on the green clay of Charleston.
Yet Goerges and Oprandi at quartefinals height are big challenger for her.
In the top half I fancy Sloane Sthephens. The young American is a great claycourter for the US standards, she had a good clay season also last year when she reached the semifinal in Strasbourg losing to title-winner Schiavone, and then the second week of Roland Garros.
Stephens is facing Pironkova in the opening match, there shouldn't be an upset given Pironkova is a four weeks player (the four weeks of grass season), and then other non clay specialists as Rybarikova. Rus is the only claycourter in this section Stephens' strokes have a different pace.
In the bottom half there's Roberta Vinci whose climb to the top ten halted at her carrer high of 12th. She has no points to defend here and at the French Open, so two decent runs could be enough; I still think clay isn't her best surface. Also her section isn't a light one, including home players Flipkens [5], Wickmayer and WC Van Uytvanck; worst match-up for the Italian, though, are power players like Hampton (who already scared Vinci in Fed Cup, on clay) and Keys.
No.3 of the seeding Cibulkova probably drew the worst first round, Kaia Kanepi. Cibulkova isn't at her best on clay, where the ball loses pace after the bounce and lessen the effects of her counterpounching.
For the same reason Kanepi is at her best on clay where she can find the best timing to hit the ball with her long swings.
Not an easy first round also for no.7 Lepchenko against Jovanovski. Also Lepchenko benefits of slower surfaces which give her "time to think" as Paire would say, and delivers at odd angles with her leftie forehand. Jovanovski, though, has quarterfinal to defend here.
Also in this section Stefanie Voegele, this girl impressed me in Charleston where she caused the upsed of Suarez-Navarro, Goerges and Wozniacki eventually losing to Jankovic in the semi after three tight sets. Voegele hits the ball very hard and could give hard time to anyone in her section.
Outright winner: Stephens 1 unit @17
WTA International, Internationaux de Strasbourg
Lower category and less interesting match-ups in Alsace.
This region was highly disputed between France and Germany and -I may be wrong on this point- local pride is much strong and has anti-France tendencies.
Top seeded Bartoli French, from Corsica usually isn't crowd favourite.
The fourhanded French woman although not a great claycourter has some good results here (semifinal in 2007, runner-up to Petkovic in 2011), she also records a semifinal at the French Open.
Her section is an easy one and also the other seeded player, no.5 Niculescu, should create major problem for world number fourteen.
Projections are for an all-French semifinal against seeding no.3 Alize Cornet, a steady presence in Strasbourg; Cornet is 2012 runner-up to Schiavone.
Bartoli and Cornet have never met before, I admit I'd like to see this semifinal, it should be quite a drama.
Bottom half isn't more interesting.
Seeded players Paszek [2], Hsieh [4], McHale [6] and Hantuchova [8] aren't claycourter although all of them might be chasing points in minor events like this.
More interests raise physical condition of Muguruza, who seems to undergo surgery after Wimbledon, and Cetkovska at her first match since December.
Activities with a better social acceptance on this side of the screen caught on me, leaving only the morning and a little window in late afternoon to watch tennis and even trade.
I usually need my time prepping matches and daily schedule when I'm trading, so I left it for a while, beside blogging.
Also bigger tournament, and ATP-WTA combined ones above all, aren't much in my liking; I feel more confortable with minor ones.
WTA is hitting the heart of Europe placing two tournaments in the centres of European political power.
WTA Premier, Brussels Open
Main Draw
Caroline Wozniacki was wild-carded to top seed the event. Her recent form is much questionable: she lost three first round on red clay, only managing a win over Soler-Espinosa on the green clay of Charleston.
Yet Goerges and Oprandi at quartefinals height are big challenger for her.
In the top half I fancy Sloane Sthephens. The young American is a great claycourter for the US standards, she had a good clay season also last year when she reached the semifinal in Strasbourg losing to title-winner Schiavone, and then the second week of Roland Garros.
Stephens is facing Pironkova in the opening match, there shouldn't be an upset given Pironkova is a four weeks player (the four weeks of grass season), and then other non clay specialists as Rybarikova. Rus is the only claycourter in this section Stephens' strokes have a different pace.
In the bottom half there's Roberta Vinci whose climb to the top ten halted at her carrer high of 12th. She has no points to defend here and at the French Open, so two decent runs could be enough; I still think clay isn't her best surface. Also her section isn't a light one, including home players Flipkens [5], Wickmayer and WC Van Uytvanck; worst match-up for the Italian, though, are power players like Hampton (who already scared Vinci in Fed Cup, on clay) and Keys.
No.3 of the seeding Cibulkova probably drew the worst first round, Kaia Kanepi. Cibulkova isn't at her best on clay, where the ball loses pace after the bounce and lessen the effects of her counterpounching.
For the same reason Kanepi is at her best on clay where she can find the best timing to hit the ball with her long swings.
Not an easy first round also for no.7 Lepchenko against Jovanovski. Also Lepchenko benefits of slower surfaces which give her "time to think" as Paire would say, and delivers at odd angles with her leftie forehand. Jovanovski, though, has quarterfinal to defend here.
Also in this section Stefanie Voegele, this girl impressed me in Charleston where she caused the upsed of Suarez-Navarro, Goerges and Wozniacki eventually losing to Jankovic in the semi after three tight sets. Voegele hits the ball very hard and could give hard time to anyone in her section.
Outright winner: Stephens 1 unit @17
WTA International, Internationaux de Strasbourg
Lower category and less interesting match-ups in Alsace.This region was highly disputed between France and Germany and -I may be wrong on this point- local pride is much strong and has anti-France tendencies.
Top seeded Bartoli French, from Corsica usually isn't crowd favourite.
The fourhanded French woman although not a great claycourter has some good results here (semifinal in 2007, runner-up to Petkovic in 2011), she also records a semifinal at the French Open.
Her section is an easy one and also the other seeded player, no.5 Niculescu, should create major problem for world number fourteen.
Projections are for an all-French semifinal against seeding no.3 Alize Cornet, a steady presence in Strasbourg; Cornet is 2012 runner-up to Schiavone.
Bartoli and Cornet have never met before, I admit I'd like to see this semifinal, it should be quite a drama.
Bottom half isn't more interesting.
Seeded players Paszek [2], Hsieh [4], McHale [6] and Hantuchova [8] aren't claycourter although all of them might be chasing points in minor events like this.
More interests raise physical condition of Muguruza, who seems to undergo surgery after Wimbledon, and Cetkovska at her first match since December.
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