Men' Slalom - Zagreb 06/01

h2h Hirscher - Myhrer - pick Myhrer 2 units @2.50 Lost -2
To me between this two is 50-50, maybe 60-40 in Hirscher's favour, so this is a good odd.
Both won in here in the past two years and in general this slope suite to the swedish team due to some flat sections.
I also think that now that Hirscher is closer to Svindall in the overall standing he's going to slow down a little and take less risks to complete the race and gain points.

h2h Yuasa - Hargin - pick Hargin 6 units @1.83 Won +4.98
Many reasons for this pick, so a preatty heavy stake.
Hargin will start with a better number: and in men's race the slope will be more ruined than in ladies's one, Yuasa can't be aggressive as he usually is.
Hargin made 3rd place two years ago, and made 7th place in two other occasions, as said before this slope suite to the swedish team.
Yuasa's 3rd place in last SL in Madonna di Campiglio has been a one off, an hat-trick Yuasa makes under some conditions of the slope and in night races, like that one and Schlamding, which are very similar.
Hargin can easily beat Yuasa as the japanese is very faulty and apart from very few races doesn't often break the top 20.

h2h Valencic - Kristoffensen - pick Kristoffensen 1 unit @2.15 Won +1.15
Big difference in the starting bib in Valencic's favour, 17 and 32.
The young norvegian though always start with similar bib. He is doing well also in European Cup while the same can't be said for Valencic who's doing average, with no sign of improvement.

h2h Byggmark - Kostelic - pick Kostelic 1 unit @2.10 Won +1.1
Byggmark will start with the n.1, meaning the slope will e in perfect condition, Kostelic is n.4 so not much behind.
Kostelic is in a bad shape and his knee hurt, though his non-aggressive style could be useful on this kind of snow, that has even got wet by rain.

h2h Neureuther - Pinturault - pick Neureuther 2 units @1.76 Won +1.52
Here starting bib in Neureuther's favour, 6 vs 14.
The german is in great shape with 2nd places in last two Slaloms and the win in the City Event.
Pinturault although winner in Val d'Isere, in some strange conditions, hasn't done anything else that good.

+6.75

Men' Slalom - Madonna di Campiglio

So, let's try to understand how head to head are set up.
Here's three pick I've done BEFORE the draw of the starting bibs.

h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Neureuther 2 units @2.02
h2h Byggmark - Deville - pick Deville 1 unit @2.25
h2h Matt - Moelgg - pick Matt 2 units @1.95

Pinturault - Neureuther
In this order they made 2/3 of the podium of last Slalom in Val d'Isere, where Alexis Pinturault achieved his first WC win. For Neureuther it was one of the many career podiums.

Every thing was a bit special in that weekend. Pinturault winning his first race, in his country, in a discipline that isn't his favourite. The following day a big mistake few gates away from the finish line probably prevented him from double the success, on the day that Ligety showed he's human finishing 3rd place.

In an inverse order they stand in the Slalom standing: Neureuther 3rd place with 116 points, followed closely by Pinturault with 108.

So all this points to a close head to head... but there's something missing.
The starting list doesn't follow the "Overall Standing" or the "Discipline Standing" (Slalom in this case), but another standing called World Cup Start List (WCSL), different for each of the four discipline.
In Slalom's WCSL Neureuther is 4th place, meaning he's in the first group and he can start with bib from 1 to 7, racing on a slope in good conditions. In WCSL Pinturault is 11th so his starting bib will be between 8 and 15, included, meaning condition could be worse and he'll take the start afterward anyway and this cause a drop of the odds.

Byggmark - Deville
Here momentums are in big contrast, if comapred to previous season. Deville struggles to find back his shape with a DNF and a 7th place. While Byggmark has little find himself after some seasons fighting with a change of style that sent him away from top placements; now seems to have find a good balance and had a good beginning with a 3rd and a 5th place.
Byggmark is 4th in the Slalom standing, while Deville is 14th.
Form for sure makes Byggmark big favored, for this, but again relying in the WCSL I'm pretty sure this odd will have a drop as Deville still as a spot in the first group, 5th, while Byggmark is in the second, 8th.

Matt - Moelgg
Also here there's a clash of shape, as there's been in previous seasons.
After coming near to retire, austrian Matt made some great season and gained the first group of the WCSL.
Moelgg, also fought with fitness and now is well out of the two group og the WCSL, being 19th.
This season however is inverting again the momentum with Moelgg climbing the standing with a 4th an a 11th placement in previous Slaloms, while Matt is doing average with a 8th, and a disqalification in Soelden due to technical measurement in his skis.

With this picks I want to see if they know the existence of the WCSL, a drop in these odds could prove it's so.
The fact that there haven't been races in this slope recently will reduce the variables from stats about results on this slope in other season.