Sun 22/12 - Val d'Isere and Alta Badia Giant-Slaloms

Results form the two downhills, a little 1.8u profit.
Fanchini crashed, it was a strange crash after a jump but not on the landing, her run was too short to be commented.
Maze, though, made a good run and was 2nd behind Kaufmann-Abderalden at her 1st career victory. Swiss team was all over placing also Weirather (not Swiss but training with them) Aufdenblatten and Gisin in the top10. Gut was 25th and Suter 17th, and this says much about the characteristics of this slope: it's quite easy, all that matters is being fast, there are few key passages which you have to prepare so to come out of them with the right direction and speed.

Val Gardena's downhill as expected was a question between Canada and Norway, placing a combined of 5 athletes in the top 10. Guay won in front of Jansrud and Clarey.

Picks for sunday's Giant-Slaloms

In short:
Shiffrin was slow in her last slalom, it could be the physical preparation.
Brignone looked good before going out in last GS. She even finished in the top30 in super-g meaning she's in good shape.
Maze was 2nd in DH but I'm still doubtful on technical disciplines.

In men's GS I'm opposing Simoncelli and Rychard for the same motivations: they're in a falling phase and the change of ski radius last season emphasized this fall.
Same could be said for Blardone, anyway Dopfer isn't too brilliant at the moment and I don't trust him on a single at a low price, so put it in a double with Raich which should beat Olsson, but again the price is too low.
Nani - Luitz is a tough head to head between two raising youngster, anyway to me Luitz is like a one-event-man (Val d'Isere) while Nani is doing good everywhere.

Schladming 2013 - Super-Combined Men

First, sorry I haven't been posting in past two days, it's hard for me to write up previews and postviews and do picks, that often go bad, and all....


Super-combi today: one run of dowhill starting at 12 (CET), and one run of Slalom at 18.15 so night event. Both runs on the original slopes. Key fact, slalom's course setter is french team, and so Pinturault's coach.

Starting list, remembering that slalom's run will have an invers order of the top 30 from downhill's run.
1 150495 VRABLIK Martin 1982 CZE Elan
2 194190 ROGER Brice 1990 FRA Rossignol
3 6530319 COCHRAN-SIEGLE Ryan 1992 USA Rossignol
4 30149 SIMARI BIRKNER Cristian Javier 1980 ARG Atomic
5 510997 BERTHOD Marc 1983 SUI Salomon
6 660021 DANILOCHKIN Yuri 1991 BLR 
7 150398 BANK Ondrej 1980 CZE Elan
8 510890 ZURBRIGGEN Silvan 1981 SUI Rossignol
9 180570 ROMAR Andreas 1989 FIN Atomic
10 50625 RAICH Benjamin 1978 AUT Atomic
11 53902 MAYER Matthias 1990 AUT Head
12 294277 KLOTZ Siegmar 1987 ITA Nordica
13 511352 VILETTA Sandro 1986 SUI Salomon
14 192746 THEAUX Adrien 1984 FRA Salomon
15 291459 PARIS Dominik 1989 ITA Nordica
16 51215 BAUMANN Romed 1986 AUT Blizzard
17 192504 MERMILLOD BLONDIN Thomas 1984 FRA Salomon
18 511313 JANKA Carlo 1986 SUI Atomic
19 293006 INNERHOFER Christof 1984 ITA Rossignol
20 421328 SVINDAL Aksel Lund 1982 NOR Head
21 194364 PINTURAULT Alexis 1991 FRA Salomon
22 380260 KOSTELIC Ivica 1979 CRO Fischer
23 561217 KOSI Klemen 1991 SLO Atomic
24 92534 CHONGAROV Nikola 1989 BUL Volkl
25 90131 GEORGIEV Georgi 1987 BUL Atomic
26 430429 BYDLINSKI Maciej 1988 POL Atomic
27 534562 LIGETY Ted 1984 USA Head
28 480736 KHOROSHILOV Alexander 1984 RUS Fischer
29 700830 ZAMPA Adam 1990 SVK Salomon
30 293550 MARSAGLIA Matteo 1985 ITA Rossignol
31 501439 HEDIN Douglas 1990 SWE Head
32 491129 TERRA Ferran 1987 SPA Rossignol
33 400281 VAN HEEK Marvin 1991 NED Salomon
34 20267 ESTEVE Kevin 1989 AND 
35 530165 BRANDENBURG Will 1987 USA Fischer
36 400016 WANDERS Arjan 1978 NED 
37 400237 MEINERS Maarten 1992 NED 
38 531452 BIESEMEYER Thomas 1989 USA Rossignol
39 20324 OLIVERAS Marc 1991 AND 
40 670052 KHUBER Martin 1992 KAZ 
41 561216 KLINE Bostjan 1991 SLO Stoeckli
42 170131 FAARUP Christoffer 1992 DAN 
43 670037 ZAKURDAEV Igor 1987 KAZ 
44 380341 ULLRICH Max 1994 CRO 
45 491151 DE LA CUESTA Paul 1988 SPA Salomon
46 430472 KLUSAK Michal 1990 POL Head
47 550022 RODE Roberts 1987 LAT 
48 710320 LAIKERT Igor 1991 BIH 
49 670029 PIMENOV Taras 1984 KAZ 
50 670058 KOSHKIN Dmitriy 1986 KAZ 
51 700868 FALAT Matej 1993 SVK 
52 690086 FESHCHUK Rostyslav 1990 UKR 
53 30283 FREEMAN CRESPO Ignacio 1992 ARG 


I've pointed out the hot names, being both runs on the original slopes the chances to win are equally distributed among downhiller and slalomist, obviously those with more overall skills are even hotter, and in this case the field is limited to Raich, Ligety, Pinturault and Kostelic.

Kostelic is favourite to win, he's ran the real downhill beside the training, but close following him there's Pinturault and Ligety.
The frenchmen might have the advantage of his coach setting the slalom's course, and also the fact that he's probably the best slalomist.
But Ted Ligety deserves equal attentions. The american seems to enjoy these slopes, his abilities and Giant-Slalom skills, his own characteristic style, the position of the external leg in large range turns, seems key elements to ski -or shred, like Ted would say- on this slopes.
In both previous combined in this season, Wengen, and Kitz, Ligety didn't reach the finish line, of the downhill in Kitz, of the slalom run in Wengen when making a good run, but bad luck he lost a ski when he was three/four gates away fron the finish line.
The importance of this event, together with the high confidence coming from an already won medal, can cheer him and keep him away from cheap mistakes. It's really hard to think him not reaching the podium also in a far-from-perfect-scenario.
Winner: Ligety 1 unit @7  Won +6

h2h Baumann - Mermillod-Blondin - pick Mermillod-Blondin 3 units @2 Lost -3
The frenchmen was third in the classic combined of Kitzbuehel (combined with 2 slalom runs).
Anyway he is a decent slalomist sure better than Baumann while the gap between these two can be little    after the downhill, as Baumann isn't in great form and wasn't even choosed for the real downhill race.

Svindal's current price (around 12) looks good for a trade, expecting him to have 2, maybe 3 seconds advantage after the downhill run.

Completely wrong the pick against Baumann, who's apparently worked around this event.

18/01 Men's Super-Combined - Wengen

The long weekend in Wengen opens with a Super-Combined event, which is made by a downhill and only one run of slalom.
After the downhill the start list of the slalom is made from dh top 30 reversed (first start 30th placed of the dh, then 29th... down to 1st placed, after this also athletes out of top30 take the start, a win from these is much unlikely to happen)
It's the first of only two Combined in this season's calendar, next one (last one) is next weekend in Kitzbuhel.
Only one run of slalom makes those who prefer downhill big favored anyway...

h2h Svindal - Ligety - pick Ligety 1 unit @3.28 Lost -1
Big opportunity for Svindal to get some important points for the World Cup as current leader Hirscher is not racing in this event.
Anyway Ligety can suffer little damages in the dowhill and take the start in the slalom with a good number (from 15-20 I think) and make a good run.
While Svindal, who's not a slolom specialist, will take the start with one of the last number and run on a ruined slope and to take care of scoring points he'll probably go down very carefully

h2h Marsaglia - Innerhoffer - pick Marsaglia 1 unit @3.01 Lost -1
Small stake on the young Marsaglia, who's started his career as specialist of the combined.
Recently he's focused more on speed events like Downhill and Super-G reducing the gap between him and Innerhoffer.

h2h Raich - Jansrud - pick Raich 2 units @2.62 Won +3.24
Too bad odds are much more high now.
Anyway I think Combined is the only event where Raich can hope in some big results. He hardly finishes out of the top 10.
Jansrud is a great downhiller but lacks in slalom, I hope he'll use this event like an additional training for the true Dowhill race of saturday

h2h Innerhofer - Theaux - pick Innerhofer 2 units @1.75 Won +1.5
Odd is right, tough head to head, I prefer Innerhofer that maybe overall is better in both downhill and slalom.

h2h Jansrud - Pinturault - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.70 Won +2.1
Pinturault it's the best slalom specialist racing this one.
He's also decent enough in speed disciplines, and I think his team is working on him to make him compete for the Cup in the future, so combined is a good starting point and test to see his attitudes.

h2h Paris - Puchner - pick Paris 2 units @1.62 Won +1.24
I don't know how's Puchner in slalom, I think not good like most of downhill racer.
Paris is quite good in Combined, great in downhill and decent enough in slalom

+6.08
Bit lucky for Jansrud lost a ski while he was doing a good slalom run, he was close to beat Raich.
Decent Slalom also from Paris.
Very bad Svindal who's lost the little slalol-skills he had years ago.
Pinturault is too strong in slalom also for Kostelic by now.

12/01 Men's Giant Slalom - Adelboden - pre-draw

Usual look at the odds offered before the bib's draw and the starting list.
In evidence the h2hs including skiers who aren't in the same group of merit for the draw. Underlined the name whose odds I think is going to lower. Anyway odds not offer too much as always, only that Reichelt around the even is temptive, but he's doing very bad so better to skip.

Here the picks:
h2h Pinturault - Neureuther - pick Pinturault 3 units @1.61
One of the head to head with the red circle.
Pinturault is a better Giantist, although Neureuther has had some good results in recent Giant-Slaloms.
There's also a big difference in the start list: Pinturault will be in the first seven gropu, while Neureuther is 20th in the start list.

h2h Fanara - Dopfer - pick Fanara 2 units @1.66
Again a red circled h2h.
Fanara is in the 1 to 7 group, Dopfer in the 8 to 15 one.
So here difference in smaller, and also results's difference is smaller, though I think Fanara is slightly better.

h2h Haugen - Eisath - pick Haugen 2 units @1.71
Not huge difference in this, Haugen is 28th, Eisath is ot of the top30, 31.
Haugen is doing much better and improving his ranking: he was out of the top30 at the beginning of the season.
Haugen has always won this h2h in previus Giant-Slaloms.

h2h Jansrud - Raich - pick Raich 2 units @1.96
Not a marked one as theiy're in the same group.
Both had a bad season in Giant-Slalom.
But I dare say for different reason: Jansrud has problem in turning where there's a short distance between the gates, that's probably becuse of the new radius of the skis.
Raich... I don't know... it could be his age, and recent injuries, but perhaps it's just something about the physical preparation the Austrian team made, as there are bad reasults in the whole austrian team, and the preparation has set them to have results for the World Championships, later this season.
Anyway Raich has a good feeling with this slope, 2nd place last here, and three victory in the past, he's never finished worse then 7th place since 2005.